U.S. Beef Industry Overview 美国牛肉产业发展概括. Joel Haggard US Meat Export Federation July,

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1 U.S. Beef Industry Overview 美国牛肉产业发展概括 Joel Haggard US Meat Export Federation July,

2 U.S. Meat Export Federation 美国肉类出口协会 A Global Presence 全球分布图 Hochiminh

3 Seedstock Operation 种牛经营 Purebred cow and bull production 纯种牛和公牛生产 Genetic supply for cattle industry 为养牛业提供基因 COW/CALF OPERATION 母牛 / 小牛经营 Crossbred genetics 杂交遗传学 Produce calves that will go to feeding 产的小牛要育肥

4 U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory 美国牛只和牛犊存栏 800, , ,000 U.S. Cattle and Calf Operations by Size Groups and Percent of Inventory 按规模和存栏百分比的美国牛只和牛犊运营 % 29% 913,246 total farms with an average herd size of 98 head 共有 913,246 个农场, 平均牧群规模为 98 头 13% 12% 18% 40% 30% 20% 200,000 7% 10% 0 1 to to to to ,500 to ,000 and up Source: USDA-NASS Census of Agriculture, 2012 Herd Size 牧群大小 Number of Operations Percent of Inventory 经营者数量 存栏百分比 0%

5 Stocking Operation 架子牛经营 Add skeletal size rather than fat 添加骨骼大小而不是脂肪 Add ~90 kg body weight 添加 ~90kg 体重 Weaned calves (~6-8 months old) 小牛断奶 (~6-8 个月 ) Consume grass from 2-3 months 吃 2-3 个月草

6 U.S. Cattle on Feed Inventory 育肥牛存栏 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 U.S. Cattle on Feed Inventory by Size Groups and Percent of Inventory 2012 按规模和存栏百分比的美国育肥牛存栏 % 26,586 total feedlots with an average herd size of 541 head 共有 26,586 个育肥场, 平均牧群规模为 541 头 11% 8% 6% 71% 1 to to to 999 1,000 to 2,499 2,500 and up 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: USDA-NASS Census of Agriculture, 2012 Herd Size 牧群大小 Number of Operations Percent of Inventory 经营者数量 存栏百分比

7 Feedlot - Fed concentrate diet for days 育肥场 - 喂养精料 天 o Corn 玉米 o Soybeans 大豆 o Roughage 粗饲料 o Mineral 矿物质 Increase from ~ kg to kg 从 ~ kg 增加到 kg Harvested at about 18 months of age 喂到大约 18 个月

8 Cow/calf production dispersed 牛 / 小牛较分散

9 Source: USDA/NASS The Midwest Corn Belt 美国中西部玉米带.43 m.9 m 2.5 m 2.3 m 1.2 m 2.4 m

10 January 1, 2017 Cattle On Feed 1 月 1 日,2017 育肥牛 Source: USDA/NASS 2.5 m 1.2 m.9 m 2.3 m.43 m Top 6 states account for 74% of cattle on feed 前 6 大州占 74% 育肥牛 2.4 m

11 2015 Cattle Slaughter by State 2015 年各州屠宰牛 Source: USDA/NASS 4.0% 4.1% 8.2% 22.9% 19.8% 6 states account for 76.6% of total 前 6 个州占总量的 76.6% 17.6%

12 Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter (2017) ( 000 head) 联邦调查的牛屠宰量 (2017 年 )('000 头 ) 奶牛 Dairy Cows 2,988 Bulls 550 公牛 Calves & Vealers 503 小牛 Average Dressed weights 平均屠宰重量 Steers 小公牛 398 kgs 小母牛 Heifers 8,611 小公牛 Steers 16,770 Heifers 小母牛 368 kgs Cows 母牛 291 kgs Bulls 公牛 406 kgs Calves & Vealers 小牛 66 kgs

13 US Cattle Slaughter Plant Scale 美国牛肉屠宰场规模 head per year & % of total federally inspected slaughter (number of plants) 每年头数 & 联邦调查的屠宰总量百分比 ( 工厂数量 ) 57.8% >1,000,000 (13) 1-99,999 (604) 5% 10% 100, ,999 (16) 300, ,999 (11) 500, ,000 (6) 15.4% 11.8% Total 2017 = 30,114,000 head 2017 总共 =30,114,000 头

14 Top 4 packers account for 74% of Slaughter Capacity 前 4 名屠宰企业占屠宰能力的 74% Source: Cattle Buyers Weekly 2016 DAILY SLAUGHTER CAPACITY 2016 年每日屠宰量 Tyson Number of Plants 工厂数量 : Tyson 6 JBS 9 Cargill 6 National Beef 2 10% 26% 19% 23% 22% JBS Cargill National Beef Packing Others

15 Source: USDA/NASS U.S. Federally Inspected Red Meat Production 美国联邦调查的红肉生产量 Cattle/Beef 牛 / 牛肉 Calves/Veal 小牛 / 小牛肉 Hogs/Pork 生猪 / 猪肉 Sheep/Lamb 羊 / 羊肉 Plants/Red Meat 工厂 / 红肉 U.S. Federally Inspected Red Meat Production 2017 美国联邦调查的红肉生产量 Number (head) 数量 ( 头 ) Pounds 磅 Metric Tons 公吨 31.7 million 百万 25.9 billion 十亿 11.7 million 百万 503, million 32, million 百万 25.4 billion 十亿 11.5 million 百万 1.9 million 百万 132 million 百万 59, facilities 工厂 51.5 billion 十亿 23.4 million 百万

16 The U.S. Beef Supply Chain 美国牛肉供应链 PACKING PLANT 屠宰场 Slaughter cattle at ~1300 lbs 屠宰大约 1300 磅 Sell as boxed beef primals and subprimals 作为盒装牛肉原料和次级肉类出售 EXPORT 出口 RETAIL 零售 ~37,000 retailers in the U.S. 在美国有大约 37,000 家零售商 FOOD SERVICE 餐饮 Ship to 120+ Countries 运往 120+ 国家 ~720,000 food service facilities 大约 720,000 餐馆

17 Key U.S. Government Agencies in Food Production 美国主要政府监督机构 Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (Dept. of Agriculture) 动植物检疫局 ( 美国农业部 ) - Traceability 追溯 - Animal disease control and research 动物检验和研究 - Control of imported animals 进口动物检验检疫 Food and Drug Administration (Dept. of Health and Human Services) 食品药品管理局 ( 美国卫生部 ) - Review and approval of ingredients, additives, and processing aids used in and on meat and poultry products 审查和批准肉类和家禽产品中使用的成分 添加剂和加工助剂 - Review and approval of veterinary compounds used in meat animal production 审查与批准畜禽肉制品中兽药成分的使用 Food Safety and Inspection Service (Dept. of Agriculture) 食品安全检疫局 ( 美国农业部 ) - Inspection services for red meat, poultry, eggs, and catfish 红肉 家禽 蛋类和鱼类的检验 / 检疫服务 - Issuance of export certificates 发放卫生许可证

18 The Commercial Cattle Cycle 商业牛循环 - calf numbers increase 牛犊数量增加 - feedlot numbers rise 育肥场增加 - beef & cattle prices plateau 牛肉 & 牛价钱达到高峰 - better profitability 更好的盈利 - so producers increase cow numbers 因此, 生产者增加牛数量 - high beef production 高牛肉产量 - falling beef prices 牛肉价格下降 - high calf supplies 高牛犊供应 - low calf prices 低牛犊价格 - feedlot numbers fall 育肥场数量减少 - beef prod n falls 牛肉产品减少 - beef prices rise 牛肉价格增多 $ - cow slaughter rises 牛屠宰上升 - herds contract 牧群收紧 - adds to short term prod n 增加短期产品 - higher calf prices 更高的牛犊价格 - cows & heifers retained for breeding 母牛 & 小母牛用来繁育养殖 - calf prices begin to rise due to lower numbers 由于数量减少, 小牛价格开始上涨 - smaller calf crop 减少牛犊产量 - but feedlot numbers stay high 但育肥场数目不变 - continued high prod n 继续高产

19 Million Head 百万头 Source: USDA/NASS Growth in U.S. Cattle 美国牛只存栏增长 U.S. Total Cattle and Calves Inventory January 1 美国牛和牛犊总存栏 1 月 1 日 2016: 91.9 mil head 百万头, +3% 2017: 93.7 mil head 百万头, +2% 2018: 94.4 mil head 百万头, +1%

20 Cattle Pricing 牛肉的定价 Live Pricing, Contract Pricing 活牛定价, 合同养殖定价 Cash market 现货市场 Futures Market 期货市场 Carcass Pricing 胴体定价 Grid market 网格市场 Transfer Risk 风险转移 Live High packer risk 活牛 更高的屠宰商风险 Grid High farmer risk 网格 更高的养殖户风险 o Incentive to improve quality 奖励机制以提高质量

21 Live Cattle Pricing Live Cattle 牛肉定价 - 活牛 Cash Market 现货市场 Priced on current market value 根据目前市场价值定价 Negotiated between feeder and packer 在生产者和屠宰商之间协商 Subject to market volatility 受市场波动影响 Futures Market 期货市场 Priced on future supply/demand expectations 根据未来的供应 / 需求预期定价 Lock in price for when cattle will be slaughtered 锁定未来牛只被屠宰时的价格 Reduces market risk via speculation 通过投机以降低市场风险

22 Live Cattle Pricing Grid Marketing 牛肉定价 - 网格市场 Beef carcass grid valuation 牛肉胴体网格评估 Cattle priced via carcass merit 通过胴体的价值来为牛只定价 Not valued until carcass quality is evaluated 直到胴体质量被评估后才为活牛估价 Individual carcass valuation vs. single value across group of live cattle 个体胴体估值对比活牛各部位单一价格

23 Beef Pricing 牛肉定价 Base price established (Low Choice) 建立基本价格 ( 低端的特选级 ) Premium to higher quality (Upper 2/3 Choice, Prime) 为更好的质量支付溢价 ( 上 2/3 特选级, 极佳级 ) Discount to lower quality (Select, Standard) 为较差的质量打折 ( 可选级 合格级 ) Other Discounts/Premiums 其它折扣 / 溢价 (+) YG 1/2 (+) 产量 1/2 (-) YG 4/5 (-) 产量 4/5 (-) Heavy/light carcass weight (-) 重 / 轻胴体重量

24 Beef Cut Pricing 牛肉定价 Wholesale boxed beef: NAMP reference specs. 批发盒装牛肉 : 北美肉类加工协会参考规格 Composite cutout value calculated from primal cut values (primal rib, rib, chuck, round, loin, brisket, short plate, plate, and flank) which are calculated from the various sub-primal (wholesale) cut values, lean trim values, fat, and bone values. 原始切割价值 ( 原始肋脊, 肩胛, 后腿, 腰脊, 前胸, 胸腹, 腹胁 ) 是由次级 ( 批发 ) 分切价值, 精修价值, 脂肪和牛骨价值决定 组合的 分切 价值由原始切割价值决定 Price differences for grade, trim level, natural vs. conventional, packaging options 分级, 精修水平 自然与传统, 包装的不同, 价钱也会不一样 Ground beef is major item 绞牛肉是主要产品

25 Beef Consumption has Fallen from Peak 牛肉消费量从峰值下降 Source: USDA/FAS

26 Pounds Per Capita 人均 / 磅 Consumption in the U.S. Has Been Rebounding 美国消费开始反弹 Beef & pork per capita consumption dropped 8.39 kg/person (-15.5%) from before per capita consumption began rebounding in consumption is expected to be up 9.1 lbs./person (+9%) from 从 2000 年到 2014 年, 牛肉和猪肉人均消费量下降 8.39kg/ 人 (- 15.5%), 然后人均消费量在 2015 年开始反弹 Source: USDA WASDE Beef Pork 牛肉猪肉

27 U.S. Beef and Variety Meat Exports to Top Markets 美国牛肉和副产品主要出口市场 Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF Metric Tons 吨 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 January December Exports 1-12 月出口 2015: MMT 百万吨, -11% 2016: MMT 百万吨, +11% 2017: MMT 百万吨, +6%

28 Thank You! Joel Haggard US Meat Export Federation July,