GROWING FOOD FOR GROWING CITIES:

Transcription

1 GROWING FOOD FOR GROWING CITIES: TRANSFO R M I NG FO O D SYSTE MS I N AN U R BAN IZI N G WO R LD R E PO RT SUMM ARY Douglas Bereuter and Dan Glickman, cochairs Thomas A. Reardon, principal author April 2016 The rapid growth of cities is putting pressure on food systems >> Growth of the world s cities is exploding, especially in low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, fueling an unprecedented demand for food. >> Diets are changing, as consumers seek increasingly diverse foods, including fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy, along with processed foods. >> Meeting demand for food in cities is a major food security challenge. Yet it is also an opportunity to improve the lives of millions of small-scale farmers and rural residents who are also food insecure. >> This report recommends how the US government in partnership with national governments, the private sector, the scientific community, and civil society can lead the way in ensuring that food systems deliver sufficient, healthy food to those who need it while enabling small farmers and rural economies to lift themselves out of poverty and thrive through the development of efficient, resilient and sustainable food supply chains. TH E C H I CAGO CO U N C I L O N G LO BA L A F FA I RS 1

2 Food systems are changing to meet new demands To meet exploding demand, a process has begun which will continue for decades that is transforming food systems from farm to fork. > > Supply chains are getting longer, reaching farther into rural areas in order to feed cities. > > New technologies are reshaping everything from production to processing, storage, and transport. > > Retail markets are changing, from the way food is procured to how it is sold. This transformation is generating enormous economic opportunity. But it will not inherently include the millions of small-scale farmers who play a key role as domestic food producers yet remain locked in poverty and struggle with food and income insecurity. It is critical that food system development is inclusive and equitable. Food supply chains are a path to food and economic security in the cities and the countryside of low-income countries, which can lead to more stable, productive societies better able to sustain themselves. Urbanization trends by region 100 North America Latin American and Caribbean Europe Oceania World Asia Africa Urban percent of overall population Source: UN DESA, Food supply chains Upstream Inputs $ Production Aggregation Seeds Fertilizer Finance Knowledge Farming Farmer 2 GROWING FOOD FOR GROWING CITIES Organizations Small Traders Transporters

3 Supply chain transformation can move the world toward greater food security For small-scale farmers and rural entrepreneurs, the road to alleviating poverty and increasing incomes will increasingly run through cities. To meet urban food needs and realize the promise of agriculture for reducing global poverty, it is critical that the development of food systems includes small farmers and the small rural enterprises along the supply chain. Benefits for farmers and rural enterprises Meeting urban demand gives farmers the potential to: > > Massively increase agricultural output and incomes > > Climb the value ladder by producing fruits, vegetables, dairy, and meat where they can have an advantage to satisfy diversifying diets > > Generate desperately needed jobs in rural communities through the multiplier effects of increased production and supply chain development Benefits for consumers > > Greater supply of more diverse, nutritious foods > > Year-round access to previously seasonal foods > > Increased food safety, especially in the long term due to strong business incentives to minimize food safety problems > > Reduced food costs due to competition and longer supply chains that allow sourcing from productive zones farther afield and those with the greatest comparative advantages Challenges will need to be addressed > > The potential for food waste increases as supply chains grow longer. > > Longer supply chains can also create higher greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution per ton of food. > > Water scarcity and competition for water may grow as water requirements increase in cities and on the farm. > > Poor or lacking infrastructure such as roads and highways can make transport and logistics difficult and costly. > > Lack of reliable energy infrastructure impedes productivity. > > Health concerns grow as demand for processed foods increases. Midstream Downstream Processing Trading Retailing Consumers Milling Packaging Drying Spot Cooperatives Wholesalers Traditional Supermarkets Restaurants Markets THE CHICAGO Markets COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS 3

4 World s largest cities in 2025 and 2050 Cities by rank in 2050 Projected population 2050 (millions) Rank in 2025 Population change 2025 to New York 1 Mumbai Delhi Los Angeles 3 Dhaka Kinshasa Kolkata Lagos Mexico City 7 Tokyo Karachi New York Mexico City Cairo Manila São Paulo Shanghai Lahore Kabul Los Angeles Chennai São Paulo Khartoum Dar es Salaam Buenos Aires Beijing Jakarta Bangalore Buenos Aires Baghdad Source: Global Cities Institute, GROWING FOOD FOR GROWING CITIES

5 Baghdad Cairo 19 Khartoum Beijing Kabul Lahore Delhi 2 3 Dhaka Karachi Mumbai Kolkata Bangalore Chennai Tokyo 7 Shanghai 12 Manila 6 Lagos Kinshasa 4 20 Dar es Salaam Jakarta 22 Population in 2025 Population in 2050 Map ranking based on projected population in 2050 THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS 5

6 Building blocks for an inclusive, resilient food system The opportunities for private-sector investment are many The transformation of food systems and supply chains to meet rising demand is a major market opportunity for the private sector, from large, domestic firms and multinational corporations to small and medium-sized enterprises. While the backbone of food systems are the small- and medium-sized enterprises in low-income countries, there are three primary ways outside private-sector actors can invest. Trade with developing economies that require food imports to meet demand Direct business investment in emerging economies Procurement arrangements that contribute to small-scale agriculture and food system development Analysis has found that the $7 trillion global food and beverage industry will not be able to continue delivering the financial returns expected by companies shareholders without tapping into small-scale farmers productivity. National and local governments must enable positive food system change National and local governments are immensely important in promoting private-sector investment, safety in the food system, and inclusion of vulnerable populations especially small farmers and rural residents. There are two primary areas for government attention: > > Facilitating public infrastructure development like roads and energy grids to increase participation in urban markets > > Creating an enabling policy and regulatory environment Civil society can support inclusive transformation Civil society often plays a crucial role in the success of public- and private-sector initiatives in food systems by: > > Offering leading-edge experimentation and demonstration of new models to encourage development > > Advocating for vulnerable populations like small-scale farmers as systems evolve > > Helping national and local governments make policy changes and establish good governance practices > > Holding both the private and public sectors accountable for programs and policies aimed at building inclusive food systems 6 GROWING FOOD FOR GROWING CITIES

7 US leadership is indispensable While cities continue to explode, the world faces the need to increase production to feed a global population of 9 billion people by 2050, build resilience to a changing climate, and meet the growing demand for diverse, nutritious food. Since World War II the United States has led global efforts to mitigate hunger and malnutrition. To meet these challenges, US policymakers must continue to lead. US interests are at stake > > Growing markets present enormous new investment opportunities for the private sector, including US businesses. > > Strong, long-term global food systems will contribute to affordable, safe food for consumers around the globe, including in the United States. > > Stable food supplies and food prices are critical to nations political stability and are therefore soundly in the US national security interest. Recommendations for US government action The following recommendations form a plan of action for how the US government in partnership with national governments, the private sector, the scientific community, and civil society can lead the way in ensuring that food systems can feed the world s cities sustainably while lifting all boats (see the full report for detailed action steps): RECOMMENDATION Develop, implement, and strengthen policies for global food security RECOMMENDATION Enable and leverage inclusive privatesector investment that includes smallscale farmers and rural SMEs in the food system RECOMMENDATION Improve regional trade capacity to build efficient and sustainable food systems across national borders through trade policy RECOMMENDATION Strengthen research support and expand the research agenda to build food systems A bipartisan group of scientific, business, and policy leaders led by cochairs Dan Glickman, former US Secretary of Agriculture, and Douglas Bereuter, president emeritus of The Asia Foundation, endorsed these recommendations. Visit thechicagocouncil.org/globalagdevelopment to learn more. THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS 7

8 The Chicago Council on Global Affairs is an independent, nonpartisan organization that provides insight and influences the public discourse on critical global issues. We convene leading global voices and conduct independent research to bring clarity and offer solutions to challenges and opportunities across the globe. Ranked the #1 Think Tank to Watch worldwide, the Council on Global Affairs is committed to engaging the public and raising global awareness of issues that transcend borders and transform how people, business, and governments engage the world. Learn more at thechicagocouncil.org and 332 South Michigan Avenue Suite 1100 Chicago, Illinois thechicagocouncil.org/globalagdevelopment