MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSES

Transcription

1 MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSES Nguyen Hoang Tri, Vietnam UNEP/USM 29/4-9/5/2007 9/5/2007 the Training Course on Sustainable Management of Mangrove Ecosystems for the UNEP-GEF-South China Sea Project on Reversing Marine Environmental Degradation Trends in the South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand

2 Systems Thinking Events Effects/Symptoms Patterns How components interact/relationships Systemic Structures What does the system look like/components Mental Models Ideas of how the system works in peoples minds

3 Causal Chain Analysis and Root Causes: The principle of or relationship between cause and effect. The Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) was created The GIWA Approach (CCA) to help develop a priority setting mechanism for actions in international waters. The GIWA's task is to analyze potential policy actions that could solve or mitigate these problems. Given the complex nature of the problems, understanding their root causes is essential to develop effective solutions. A causal chain maps the causal relations between cause and effect.

4 Why were mangroves cut?

5 Human activities and their impacts Human activities and their impacts

6 Problem The Causal-Chain Model Concerns Issues Human activity Agriculture Forestry Fishing Aquaculture Mining Industry Energy production Transport Tourism Urbanisation Military activity Root causes / Governance Human needs & wants Markets Economics Demography Lifestyle Poverty Infrastructure - Investments - Financing Enforcement Agreements Legislation -Laws -Rules - Regulations Education Institution - Competence - Capacity

7 Causal chain analysis for Yellow Sea: Unsustainable Exploitation of Living Resources IMPACT Fisheries resources were highly overexploited Employment rates had decreased by 30-50% due to over-fishing & environmental degradation with substantial impact on the social life of the local population. Business opportunities in the seafood processing industries had decreased GIWA ISSUE 14. Overexploitation IMMEDIATE CAUSE More efficient fishing practices by introduction of improved fishing technology. Increased fishing efforts leading to overharvesting of the living resources. SECTOR ACTIVITY Fisheries: easy access to improved fishing technologies; increasing the number of fishing fleets. ROOT CAUSE Increase in population growth, increased demand for seafood, enhances the fishing activities. Profit motive in fishing and disregard of the environmental consequences caused uncontrolled entry in the number of fishing vessels into the fisheries sector. Increased market demand for seafood that leads to increased fishing activities in disregard of the consequences related to depletion of the living resources.

8 Biodiversity impacts Level of diversity Conservation of biodiversity Sustainable use of biodiversity Ecosystem diversity Species diversity Genetic diversity Would the intended activity lead, either directly or indirectly, to serious damage or total loss of (an) ecosystem(s), or landuse type(s), thus leading to a loss of ecosystem services of scientific/ecological value, or of cultural value? Would the intended activity cause a direct or indirect loss of a population of a species? Would the intended activity result in extinction of a population of a localized endemic species of scientific, ecological, or cultural value? Does the intended activity affect the sustainable human exploitation of (an) ecosystem(s) or land-use type(s) in such manner that the exploitation becomes destructive or nonsustainable (i.e. the loss of ecosystem services of social and/or economic value)? Would the intended activity affect sustainable use of a population of a species? Does the intended activity cause a local loss of varieties/cultivars/breeds of cultivated plants and/or domesticated animals and their relatives, genes or genomes of social, scientific and economic importance?

9 Root causes

10 Linking cause and effect Linking cause and effect

11 Causal chain analysis

12 Case studies CONSERVATION OF COASTAL WETLANDS IN THE RED RIVER DELTA: CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSERVATION OF GLOBALLY SIGNIFICANT BIODIVERSITY ON MEINMAHLA ISLAND WILDLIFE SANCTUARY: CONCEPTUAL MODEL SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF MT. ISAROG'S TERRITORIES (SUMMIT) PROJECT CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSERVATION OF UPLAND BIODIVERSITY IN YUNNAN CONCEPTUAL MODEL

13 Thank you