Global Climate Change: What Does it Mean for Health?

Transcription

1 Global Climate Change: What Does it Mean for Health? Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH Johns Hopkins Program on Global Sustainability and Health Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

2 What is Health? Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. -World Health Organization,

3 Health Effects of Climate Change Stressed ecosystems, potential for collapse, and loss of ecosystem services Threatened quantity and quality of water supplies Environmental refugees, global security concerns Threatened food supplies, toxins More accidents and injuries from increased flooding, storm surge, and extreme weather events Rising sea levels Worsening air quality Greater risk of infectious diseases More heat-related illness 3

4 Heat Stress: Some Populations Are Particularly Vulnerable 4

5 45,000+ Died of Heat Stress in Western Europe during Summer 2003 Most Vulnerable mortality in cities that also had ozone and PM 10 levels Socially isolated Western Europe: Summer 2003 temperatures relative to From NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, courtesy of Reto Stöckli 5

6 Infectious Disease: Dengue Risk In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was >50% In 2085, an estimated 50-60% of the projected global population, 5-6 billion people, would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 35% (3.5 billion) if climate change didn t happen. Hales, de Wet, Maindonald, Woodward, The Lancet, 2002, 360:830 6

7 Heat Worsens Ozone Air Pollution Ozone Photo: Pedro Henriques Nitrogen Oxides Volatile Organic Compounds 7

8 Health Effects of Ozone Increased risk of hospital admissions and ER visits for people with asthma 3X greater risk of DEVELOPING asthma 1 in 9 Maryland children has asthma Air pollution Climate change 8

9 But what about the ozone hole? Isn t ozone good? 9

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11 13 of the world s 20 megacities are at sea level 75 Million people are currently at risk from storm surge By 2050, 200 million people will be at risk Storm Surge Risk World Health Organization 11

12 Health Effects of Sea-Level Rise Inundation of living areas; expansion of flood plains, inability to get insurance Erosion and loss of coastal land Worsening protection against future storm surge Contamination of fresh water Coastal wells tend to be shallow Population displacement Mental health effects Loss of critical infrastructure Hurricane Katrina as example 12

13 Health Care After Katrina Of 7 hospitals pre-k, Now 1 operating fully, 2 partially Hundreds of doctors never returned, others are leaving Many people newly uninsured Doctors won t come back until there are patients and facilities, patients won t come back until there are doctors Blocking economic revival Meanwhile, illness and death rates are 13

14 One-Meter Sea Level Rise in Southern U.S. 14

15 More Extreme Weather Events Hurricane Floyd, photo by Liz Roll/FEMA News Photo Photo courtesy FEMA 15

16 Health Effects of Floods Cause injuries and deaths Long term psychological and physical effects Increased risk of infectious disease Mold Contaminate water supplies: surface & wells Photo courtesy of FEMA 16

17 Food Supply: Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production Direct Effects: temperature precipitation CO 2 levels Indirect Effects: plant pests plant diseases Salt contamination of soil ozone There is no health without food. 17

18 How Does Climate Change Affect Water Supplies? Rain will come in fewer, heavy precipitation events Extended droughts between these events More precipitation expected to fall as rain instead of snow Reduced snowpacks, which release water slowly throughout the summer Earlier melting of snowpacks flooding, low flows in late spring and summer when irrigation demands greatest Snowpacks in Cascade mountains in OR, WA drop by 60% reducing summer stream flows by 20-50% Glaciers melting (Alps, Andes, Himalayas) 1/6 of global population depend on melting Himalayan glaciers 18

19 Climate and Water 1/3 of the world s population, about 2 billion people, currently lives in water-stressed countries (UNEP, IPCC) By 2025, that number is expected to increase to 3.5+ billion (UNEP, IPCC) Nearly 1/3 of the world s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought by (Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006) 19

20 Health Effects of Droughts Concentrate micro-organisms and contaminants in water supplies Increase risk of forest fires Increase risk of infectious disease Water shortages for hygiene Crop failures ~1 billion people hungry 5 million children die starvation 20

21 Climate Change and Security: An Equation for Disaster + Forced migration of millions of people + Scarce resources becoming scarcer + Already stressed infrastructures = Conflict 21

22 Deaths Attributed to Climate Change NOW 300,000 per year xxx Patz, Jonathan, et. al (November, 2005). Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature, Vol

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24 If we do not change direction, we are likely to end up exactly where we are headed - Chinese proverb

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