KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes

Transcription

1 KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes Daniel O Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, October 6, 2017 I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, October 6, 2017 Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures Month Close Change Carry /mo Month Close Change Carry /mo Month Close Change Carry /mo Dec 17 $3.49 ½ $ Nov 17 $ 9.68 ¼ $ Dec 17 $4.34 ¼ $ Mar 18 $3.62 ½ $ $ Jan 18 $ 9.79 $ $ Mar 18 $4.52 $ $ May 18 $3.71 ¼ $ $ Mar 18 $ 9.88 $ $ May 18 $4.65 ¾ $0.02 $ July 18 $3.79 ¼ $0.01 $0.04 May 18 $ 9.97 $ $ July 18 $4.83 ½ $ $ Sept 18 $3.86 ½ $0.01 $ July 18 $10.04 ½ $ $ Sept 18 $5.02 ½ $ $ Dec 18 $3.95 ¾ $ $ Aug 18 $10.05 $ $ Dec 18 $5.26 ¾ $ $ Mar 19 $4.05 ¾ $ $ Sept 18 $ 9.96 $ No Carry Mar 19 $5.43 ¾ $ $ May 19 $4.11 ¼ $ $ Nov 18 $ 9.88 ½ $ No Carry May 19 $5.51 ½ $ $ Price Soybean$ / Price Corn$ Ratios on October 6, 2017: New Crop 2017/18 $NOV 2017 Soybeans $DEC 2017 Corn = $ 9.68 ¼ $3.49 ½ = 2.77 *** Next Crop 2017/18 $NOV 2018 Soybeans $DEC 2018 Corn = $ 9.88 ½ $3.95 ¾ = P age

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5 Results of the September 29 th USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statics Service) 2017 Small Grains Summary & Quarterly Stocks Reports Table U.S. Wheat Production Total & By Class (Trade est. & results of 9/29/2017 Small Grains Summary Report) All U.S. Wheat All Winter Wheat Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat White Winter (WW) Wheat Other Spring Wheat Durum Wheat Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu 2017 production USDA August 2017 # (+0.02) (-0.18) (-0.08) (-0.14) (+0.07) (+0.14) (+0.04) Average trade estimate (+0.23) (-0.17) (-0.08) (-0.13) (+0.06) (+0.34) (+0.05) Minimum trade est Near low Near low Maximum trade est Near top Equal top production 2017: 75% : 76% : 69% : 85% : 94% : 78% : 53% production 2017: 84% : 92% : 90% : 81% : 124% : 69% : 65% production 2017: 86% : 92% : 101% : 64% : 125% : 70% : 102% production 2017: 82% : 82% : 100% : 51% : 78% : 95% P age

6 Table U.S. Grain Stocks Report Results (Trade est. & results of 9/29/2017 Grain Stocks Report) Wheat Corn Soybeans Grain Sorghum* Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu September 1, Average trade estimate (+0.48) (-0.58) (-0.37) (+0.06) Minimum trade est Below low end Below low end Maximum trade est Above high end USDA June 1, 2017 # September 1, : 89% : 132% : 153% : 92% September 1, : 107% : 133% : 158% : 189% September 1, : 118% : 186% : 327% : 100% September 1, : 119% : 280% : 213% : 107% *(Note: DTN is the source for September 1 st Trade Grain Sorghum estimates) Table 3. U.S. Grain Use During June-August 2017 (Results of 9/29/2017 Grain Stocks Report) Wheat Corn Soybeans Grain Sorghum* Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu Bln bu June-August Trade Implied J-A 2017 Total Use **** (+0.54) (+0.37) **** June-August : 90% : 99% : 98% : 94% June-August : 90% : 106% : 149% : 319% June-August : 89% : 116% : 194% : 88% June-August : 66% : 148% : 209% : 176% June-August : 74% : 135% : 132% : 142% June-August : 92% : 115% : 163% : 96% June-August : 93% : 112% : 157% : 109% *(Note: DTN is the source for September 1 st Trade Grain Sorghum estimates) 6 P age

7 III. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin) 7 P age

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10 IV. Corn & Grain Sorghum Market Information Daily DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply Demand Factors: U.S. Corn Exports: positive short term New Crop MY 2017/18 U.S. corn shipments with positive intermediate term sales Weekly Export Shipments week of 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = 38.0 mb (Positive) vs 36.0 mb/wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of bb exports Total shipments through 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 6.6% of bb USDA projn with 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) Total sales through 9/28/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = bb i.e., 25.9% of bb USDA projn w. 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: Bearish short term New Crop MY 2017/18 sorghum shipments & positive intermediate term sales Weekly Export Shipments week of 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = 0.01 mb (Bearish) vs 4.1 mb/wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of 210 mb exports Total shipments through 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = 11.3 mb i.e., 5.4% of 210 mb USDA projn with 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) Total new sales through 9/28/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = 47.2 mb i.e., 22.5% of 210 mb USDA projn w. 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) DEC 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.49 ½ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 Monthly Corn Futures Continuation Chart DEC 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.49 ½ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 World & U.S. Corn Supply Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Crop 2009/ % S/U 13.1% S/U $3.55 /bu bln bu 2010/ % S/U 8.7% S/U $5.18 /bu bln bu 2011/ % S/U 7.9% S/U $6.22 /bu bln bu 2012/ % S/U 7.4% S/U $6.89 /bu bln bu 2013/ % S/U 9.2% S/U $4.46 /bu bln bu 2014/15 USDA 21.4% S/U 12.6% S/U $3.70 /bu bln bu 2015/16 USDA 22.2% S/U 12.7% S/U $3.61 /bu bln bu 2016/17 USDA 22.5% S/U 16.3% S/U $3.35 /bu bln bu 2017/18 USDA 19.2% S/U 16.4% S/U $3.20 /bu bln bu U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply Demand Fundamentals $2.90 $3.01 $ /15 USDA 67.6 bu/ac US 4.0% S/U $4.03 /bu 433 mln bu 2015/16 USDA 76.0 bu/ac US 6.4% S/U $3.31 /bu 597 mln bu 2016/17 USDA 77.9 bu/ac US 5.9% S/U $2.65 /bu 480 mln bu 2017/18 USDA 69.8 bu/ac US 7.8% S/U $2.90 /bu 371 mln bu 10 P age

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15 V. Wheat Market Outlook Daily DEC 2017 KS HRW Wheat Futures DEC 2017 KC Wheat (Daily) $4.34 ¼ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 Wheat Export Situation: U.S. All Wheat Exports: Bullish Short Term Export Shipments with Positive long run export prospects in New Crop MY 2017/18 total sales Weekly Export Shipments wk of 9/28/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = 26.3 mb (Bullish) vs 18.5 mb /wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of 975 mb exports Total shipments through 9/28/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 35.3% of 975 mb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks) Total shipments + new sales through 9/28/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 52.8% of 975 mb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks) U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Exports: Neutral negative Short Term Shipments with Positive long run export prospects in new crop MY 2017/18 total sales Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat efutures Weekly Export Shipments wk of 9/21/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = 6.6 mb (Neutral negative) vs 7.7 mb /wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of 400 mb HRW wheat exports Total shipments through 9/21/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 34.85% of 400 mb USDA HRW wheat exports with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks) Total shipments + new sales 9/21/2017 for new crop MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 48.15% of 400 mb USDA HRW wheat with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks) SEPT 2017 KC Wheat (Daily) $4.34 ½ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 Negative World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports 2007/ % S/U mmt 13.2% S/U $6.48 /bu 1,263 mln bu 2008/ % S/U mmt 28.7% S/U $6.78 /bu 1,015 mln bu 2009/ % S/U mmt 48.6% S/U $4.87 /bu 879 mln bu 2010/ % S/U mmt 36.4% S/U $5.70 /bu 1,291 mln bu 2011/ % S/U mmt 33.4% S/U $7.24 /bu 1,051 mln bu 2012/ % S/U mmt 29.9% S/U $7.77 /bu 1,012 mln bu 2013/ % S/U mmt 24.2% S/U $6.87 /bu 1,176 mln bu 2014/ % S/U mmt 37.3% S/U $5.99 /bu 864 mln bu 2015/16 USDA 33.9% S/U mmt 50.0% S/U $4.89 /bu 778 mln bu 2016/17 USDA 34.6% S/U mmt 53.4% S/U $3.89 /bu 1,055 mln bu $4.71 Monthly KS HRW Wheat Futures Continuation Chart $3.67 ¾ $ /18 USDA 35.7% S/U mmt 43.6% S/U $4.80 /bu 975 mln bu 15 P age

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18 VI. Soybean Market Outlook Daily NOVEMBER 2017 Soybean Futures Key Soybean Supply Demand Issues: $7.76 ¼ Daily NOV 2017 Soybeans $9.68 ¼ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 Monthly Soybean efutures Daily NOV 2017 Soybeans $9.68 ¼ on Th., Oct. 5, 2017 $8.44 ¼ $9.68 U.S. Soybean Exports: Neutral negative short run export shipments in New Crop MY 2017/18 and positive bullish total sales Weekly Export Shipments week of 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = 36.2 mb (Neutral negative) vs 43.8 mb/wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of bb exports Total shipments through 9/28/2017 for MY 2017/18 = mb i.e., 6.6% of bb USDA projn with 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) Total sales through 9/28/2017 for New Crop MY 2017/18 = bb i.e., 38.1% of bb USDA projn w. 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: Bearish short run export shipments in current MY 2016/17 and neutral total sales Export Shipments for week of 9/28/2017 for Old Crop MY 2016/17 = 132,100 mt (Bearish) vs 628,000 mt/wk needed to meet USDA s September 12 th projn of mmt exports Total shipments through 9/28/2017 for Old Crop MY 2016/17 = mmt i.e., 94.1% of mmt USDA projn with 99.45% of MY complete (52/52 weeks) Total shipments & new sales (9/28/2017) for Old Crop MY 2016/17 = mmt i.e., 97.9% of mmt USDA projn with 99.45% of MY complete (52/52 weeks) Total shipments & new sales (9/28/2017) for New Crop MY 2017/18 = mmt i.e., 26.65% of mmt USDA projn with 0.0% of MY complete (0/52 weeks) World & U.S. Soybean Supply Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports 2009/ % S/U mmt 4.5% S/U $ 9.59 /bu bln bu 2010/ % S/U mmt 6.6% S/U $11.30 /bu bln bu 2011/ % S/U mmt 5.4% S/U $12.50 /bu bln bu 2012/ % S/U mmt 4.5% S/U $14.40 /bu bln bu 2013/ % S/U mmt 2.7% S/U $13.00 /bu bln bu 2014/ % S/U mmt 4.9% S/U $10.10 /bu bln bu 2015/16 USDA 24.7% S/U mmt 5.0% S/U $ 8.95 /bu bln bu 2016/17 USDA 29.1% S/U mmt 8.3% S/U $ 9.50 /bu bln bu 2017/18 USDA 28.3% S/U mmt 11.0% S/U $ 9.20 /bu bln bu 18 P age

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