Greenhouse gas emission projections from the agriculture sector. Background paper by ETC/ACC. 27 to 28 February 2003 (EEA, Copenhagen)

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1 Greenhouse gas emission projections from the agriculture sector. Background paper by ETC/ACC Workshop on Inventories and Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Working Groups I and II of the EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism Committee 27 to 28 February 2003 (EEA, Copenhagen) Introduction The monitoring mechanism for anthropogenic CO 2 and other greenhouse gases was established in June 1993, following the adoption of Council Decision 93/389/EEC, by the Council of Environment Ministers. This was revised in April 1999, (Council Decision 99/296/EC) to allow for the updating of the monitoring process in line with the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. Following the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the European Community on 31 May 2002, pursuant to Decision 2002/358/EC, the Decision was revised to reflect legal decisions taken at the seventh Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Marrakech on reporting requirements and guidelines for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (XX/2003/EC). The monitoring mechanism is an instrument to assess accurately and regularly the extent of progress being made towards the Community s commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The Guidelines for reporting are based on those used by UNFCCC. Actual progress is assessed by the collection and evaluation of national inventories for the Member States, and the preparation of an annual inventory for the EU as a whole. Projected progress is assessed by the collection and evaluation of adopted and further (planned, or currently in discussion) policies and measures at both national levels and Community level. This evaluation is based on emission projections of Member States and the Community. It includes an assessment of the consistency and soundness of these emission projections and their key underlying assumptions and parameters in the context of National Programmes. The emission projections are used to help the European Commission and Member States understand: the likely level of greenhouse gas emissions in the first commitment period ( ) if no new policies and measures are implemented, and the uncertainty in the emission projections the effect of policies and measures that have already been implemented the likely effect of policies and measures that are being considered. 1

2 This requires emissions projections for the EU as a whole, which can be developed both by aggregating Member States projections and through the use of models that provide EU-wide scenario results. The emission projections should include information on Member States policies as well as EU-wide common and co-ordinated polices and measures. Scope of this paper The scope of this paper is to discuss issues regarding reporting of emission projections from the agricultural sector, the underlying assumptions and parameters and the incorporation of policies and measures. The aim is to help provide focus for the discussions during the workshop. Reporting of emission projections and underlying assumptions Reporting Guidelines The main issue regarding reporting of projections of emissions from agriculture is lack of information on the methodologies and underlying assumptions mainly on the agricultural scenarios (of activities) and projected emission factors. The Guidelines on reporting under the Monitoring Mechanism identify the provision of the following information as mandatory: description of methodologies used (explain for which gases and/or sectors the methodology was used) describe type of model or approach and its characteristic summarise strengths/weaknesses of the model/approach discuss qualitatively and if possible quantitatively sensitivity to underlying assumptions report information about key underlying assumptions and values of variables (such as GDP growth, population growth, tax levels and international fuel prices) present relevant information on underlying factors and activities for each sector FCCC/CP/1999/7 suggests that to ensure transparency, Parties should report information about key underlying assumptions and values of variables. Reporting Practice The aim of reporting the methodology and parameters is to help compare Member State emission projections and EU-wide emission projections. In 2002, eleven countries reported with measures emission projections for agriculture and seven countries reported a with additional measures emission projection. However, most countries did not report the methodology for the emission projections and only two countries reported underlying parameters such as scenarios for animal numbers. For those that did report the methodology, a bottom-up approach based on projected activity data (agricultural scenario) and emissions factors was used. 2

3 Suggested improvements Report methodology and describe the projected activity (agricultural scenario) and emissions factors used for major sources of emissions. Report actual values for activity and emissions factors used for at least base year and Annex 1 shows suggestions for mandatory and recommended parameters to be reported. Report basis for any changes in projected activity (agricultural scenario) or emissions factors e.g. any policies and measures assumed to be implemented in The policies and measures reported should include any that have a material effect, including for example measures aimed at reducing air pollution. Report assumptions on agricultural trade or give source of projections of activity Integration of EU-wide policies and measures into projections of emissions from the agricultural sector Background The development of agriculture in the Member States is strongly influenced by the EU Common Agricultural Policies (CAP). To date, common policies on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture have not been well developed so direct effects have been limited. The main effect of the common policies (CAP) has been on levels of activity or from policies aimed at limiting other pollutants such as nitrates (Nitrate Directive) and ammonia (National Emission Ceilings Directive). At the EU level, there are scenarios of agricultural production, but it is not clear whether these are used by Member States in their emission projections. It would be good to understand whether there is scope to improve the usefulness of EU-wide agricultural scenarios for national emissions projections. With the limited information available on agricultural emission projections from Member States, it has not been possible to assess how the effect of the policies has been included. It is important to understand if the interpretation of policies is consistent between Member States and with the EU-wide emission projections. In addition, individual Member States implement policies and measures and their effect on the emission projections needs to be understood. There is also the potential to share Good Practice between Member States. The EU-wide projections of activity are largely based on economic or econometric models and are typically applied to medium term analysis 1. The effect of policies and measures are included through effects on prices or subsidies. In the case of the CAPRI model, it includes all agricultural inputs and outputs according to the definition of national accounts. Its activity based concept, describing agricultural production by the help of physical input and output coefficients was chosen to allow 1 For example: EC DG, Prospects for Agricultural Markets , June 2002 AG-MEMOD agri-food projections for EU Member States CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis 3

4 both for the modelling of typical policy measurements and to give a link with environmental indicators such as emissions. Selected questions How is the effect of common agricultural policy incorporated into projections of emissions? Is there sufficient information available to MS on EU-wide scenarios of agricultural production to help improve national emissions projections? How can communication between national agricultural economics (scenarios) experts and emissions experts be optimised? Are there regional issues that are or could be addressed at the regional level, rather than individual Member States? Are there existing networks for sharing Good Practice in preparing GHG emission projections from agriculture? 4

5 Annex 1 From Reporting of key parameters underlying projections Working Paper for adoption at the Monitoring Mechanism Committee meeting March 2003 Mandatory parameters Econometric models Share of GDP in agriculture and relative growth Other models Livestock numbers by type (for enteric fermentation beef cattle and dairy cows, sheep, for manure management also include pigs and poultry) Area of crops by type (cereals, grassland, pulses, fodder, other) Emissions factors by type of livestock for enteric fermentation and manure management, and by type of crop Recommended parameters Fertiliser use Suggested additions to parameters to be reported Econometric models Agricultural trade (import/export) Consumption Other models Type of livestock (e.g. by input/nutrient balance, output/animal production) Details of fertiliser use (type of fertiliser, timing of application, inorganic/organic ratio) Volatilisation of ammonia, following spreading of manure on the soil; Storage facilities (e.g. with or without cover); Nitrogen manure coefficients. 5