CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL S NORTHEAST: ALTERNATIVE ADAPTATIONS FOR THE DAIRY INDUSTRY

Transcription

1 09 a 11 de dezembro de 2015 Auditório da Universidade UNIT Aracaju - SE CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL S NORTHEAST: ALTERNATIVE ADAPTATIONS FOR THE DAIRY INDUSTRY Jose Henrique Leal Dantas 1, Ítalo de Sousa 2 1 Universidade Tiradentes, Aracaju, Brazil, jlealdantas@gmail.com 2 Universidade do Estado do Pará, Marabá, Brazil, italo.uepa@hotmail.com ABSTRACT The actual scenario for climate change has shown that the temperature of the earth is increasing. Studies show that the temperature of the planet tends to increase between one to two degrees in many parts of the globe in the next fifty years, consequently segments such as, society, economy and agriculture will be negatively impacted due to it. In terms of agriculture, the most affected sector will be the dairy industry, which is one of the major agricultural products in many countries, including Brazil. For this reason, the aim of this paper is to propose adaptation plans for Brazil s Northeast dairy industry. The methodology used in this paper are based on literature review of climate change adaptations used in other countries, as well as the interpretation of data collected from the national research agencies. Identifying the vulnerabilities to climate change in the Northeast region will help policy makers and stakeholders to prioritize resources allocation and management interventions for the dairy industry, aiming to restore productivity and to build a long-term resilient segment to climate change. Keywords: Climate Change, Adaptation, Dairy Industry. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Brazil s Northeast Brazil s Northeast is a macro region of Brazil s that covers 18% of the total territory. With a population of 53 million people this region is composed by 9 states (Figure 1) (IBGE, 2010). The Brazil s northeast main vegetation is categorized as Caatinga, which consists mainly of dry lands formed by species resistant to harsh weather and unevenly distributed rainfall. The Caatinga biome occupies an area mostly coincident with the region called Brazilian semiarid, which is described as the most biodiverse and the most populated semi-arid region in the world (MMA, 2011). Also, it is characterized as a xeric scrubland and thorn forest (Figure 2). The annual temperature average is around 25 to 30 ºC, being the summer s temperature around 42ºC in some regions. Fig. 1. Northeast Region. Fig. 2. Caatinga Biome. Photo: 1

2 1.2. The dairy industry The dairy industry is an important sector to the economy of the Brazil s Northeast. Being on the top of the agriculture s production. According to Carvalho (2007), by the year of 2010 Brazil s Northeast region has produced liters of milk (Table 1), that means 21.7% of the country milk production for this respective year. The states in the Northeast that stand out in milk production are Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará with more than liters produced in the years analyzed. Table 1. Milk production in the states inserted in the Northeast Region (1990, 2000 and 2010). Pecuaria Rural BR (2014) states that the dairy production of the Northeast region has contributed with almost 14% with the agriculture sector to the Gross National Product, and it is responsible for around 7 million of direct and indirect jobs. Also, 90% of the production of the dairy industry at Brazil s Northeast come from small farms and be considered one of the poorest region of the country (Fundação Banco do Brasil, 2010). In addiction milk is also considered one of the six more impart products of Brazil s agriculture and main sources of protein for the population of this region (Chart 1). Chart 1. Average food consumption per capita (kg / day) of dairy products in the northeast region and its states. 2

3 2. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to recommend an assessment of adaptation options to reduce the adverse effects of climate changes on dairy industries in the Brazil s Northeast. 3. METHODS AND MATERIALS The scenario A1B created by Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was used to investigate the average of increasing temperature in the region studied. The SRES scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. As required by the Terms of Reference, none of the scenarios in the set includes any future policies that explicitly address climate change, although all scenarios necessarily encompass various policies of other types. The SRES scenarios include the range of emissions of all relevant species of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfur and their driving forces. (IPCC, 2000). Also the literature review was used to determinate the assessment approach and adaptation for climate change effects for brazil s northeast dairy industry. 4. RESULTS 4.1 Climate data and scenarios Climate change scenarios predicted to the next decades impact the lives of all Brazil s Northeast population, specially 2 million of these people which are considered rural families (INCRA and FAO, 2000). Changes at temperature and rainfall are expected to happen at that region such as increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall levels. Also, impacts at the local environmental are prone to happen affecting for example the water sources. All these changes are going to affect the dairy industry in different ways, such as animals, product s quality and the production system. According to IPCC (2000), By the year 2050 using the SRES emissions scenario A1B, the temperature at the Northeast of Brazil will probably increase around 1.5 ºC on the coast side and 2 ºC on the country (Figure 3). Fig. 3. Change in Annual Temperature by the 2050s. 3

4 The current average of rainfall in the study area is about 500 to 700 mm/year, however according to IPCC (2000) these levels that are already considered lower will prone to decrease for 200 mm/year by the year 2050, as shown the SRES emissions scenario A1B (Figure 4). Fig. 4. Average Annual Precipitation by the 2050s. According to Silanikove (2015) the main factors that need to be taken into account in considering the effect of climatic change on livestock are Feed grain production, availability, and price; Pastures and forage crop production and quality; Animal production, health, and reproduction; Disease and pest distribution; Water scarcity and quality; Byproducts using and soil infertility; and Biodiversity, loss of genetic and cultural diversity. All these impacts reflect directly on dairy products production. 4.2 Climate change impacts and the dairy industry According to Silva et al (2010), a number of negative impacts due to climate change are likely to occur at Brazil s Northeast and its dairy industry. Some of these impacts are: Increases in: - drought scenarios (Affecting the local vegetation and the water sources); - heat waves (Affecting the population and the animals, heat waves are one of the causes for cow s stress and consequently their death); - pasture damage (Due to the increase of temperate and the decrease in the rainfalls levels, pasture becomes more susceptible to getting dry and damaged, besides the probability to suffer with pests. Decreases in: - animal feed supply (Decreases in rainfalls is one of the main cause of the decline in the production of animal feed supply, less rainfall affect directly the crop production that is the raw material for the feed production) ; - water sources (Decreases in rainfalls affect water sources, such as lakes, dams and groundwater, these sources supply the dairy industry that needs to hydrate the animals and also other general uses. - dairy products quality (As a result of cow s stress and their poor hydration due to a probably decreasing in water supply, the dairy products can become with a lower quality, which affect directly its price in the market). 4.3 Other anticipated changes According to IBGE (2014), Brazil s population at the present time is almost 203 million people, they also predict that by the year 2050 its population will increase to around 260 million people. This population growth also means a prone to increase the consume of dairy products by this population, which requires improvements and planning to the dairy industry. 4

5 4.4 Stakeholders This adaptation plan present alternatives of actions to dairy farmers, their community and local government of the Brazil s Northeast region, about the impacts of climate change to the next decades. The approaches in this adaptation plan are specifically to the dairy farm industry and its products, covering farms specifications, policies, animals creation, pasture process, water sources, and excluding other sectors such as beef and leather that are normally linked to the the dairy industry. 4.5 Strategies and actions Policy Challenges Creation of a mutual relationship between government and farms to improve policies about critical points such as: Water storage: With the predictions of a decrease in the rainfall levels due to climate change to a near future, policies to create dams at the regions that to not presents water to supply the dairy farms or that its reservoirs are not enough should be adopted (Cool Cows, 2014). Greenhouse gases emissions: One of the causes of climate change are the increase of the greenhouses gases in the Earth atmosphere, and one of the gases that cause more damage is the methane, which is in part produced by the cows and released into the atmosphere by their flatulence. According to Australian Government Department of Environment (2014) to reduce this effects a solution is the use of dietary supplements into the cow s feed. However, as dairy industry in Brazil s Northeast is composed almost for small farms a government investment should occur to promote its practice Research and Improvements According to Dairy Australia (2014), improvements and researches in some points may be applicable for all kind dairy industry, such as: Increase in the resilience of the dairy farm industries to they become more variable to climate change; Improvement in engineering works for dairy farms; Research in resilient pasture species; Improvement of animal feeds; Genetic research to improve cow s resistance to climate change effects Capability Dairy Australia (2014) also states that, the creation of strategic alliances, for example between adaptation of climate change and seasonal forecast is a powerful tools to adapt climate change in the dairy industry. Moreover a total understanding of the risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities of climate change and its effects by for all sector related to Dairy production at Brazil s Northeast Re-building Industry Confidence According to M9 Final report, the main issues to re-building industry confidence are: Ensuring the industry is integrated into a common vision (Industry, community and government). Clear opportunihes for individuals to parhcipate in climate change deliberahons. Transparency within industry processes. PromoHon of an achve debate in dairy informahon channels. Sharing of informahon about climate change impacts and effects between farmers. 5. CONCLUSION In conclusion, this plan states that although Brazil s Northeast is considered one of the poorest region of the country, some facts are changing in part due to the financial investments of the national government in many areas including the dairy industries, which is an important sector that affects the economy and the society of this regions. It is known that dairy sector in Brazil s Northeast needs more attention due to climate change impacts that are predicted to occur in the next decades. As a semi-arid area the effects of climate change, due the intensification of temperature and also the reduction in rainfall levels, are predicted to be more intense in this region. This paper also recommend, as a main point for adaptation to the dairy industry in Brazil s Northeast, the incentive on investments in the research area to 5

6 improve the adaptions to climate change, due to the fact that the current literature is not much depth in the study area and more studies is needed to provide better alternatives for adaptation plans in the future. REFERENCES Australian Government Department of Environment, (2014). Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in milking cows through feeding dietary additives. [online] Climatechange.gov.au. Available at: [Accessed 2 Nov. 2014]. CARVALHO, M. (2007). Cenários para o leite no Brasil em Juiz de Fora: Embrapa Gado de Leite. Climate Wizard, (2014). Climate Wizard. [online] Available at: [Accessed 2 Nov. 2014]. Cool Cows, (2014). Cool Cows - How much does heat stress cost you?. [online] Coolcows.com.au. Available at: [Accessed 1 Nov. 2014]. Dairy Australia, (2014). Adapting-the-dairy-industry - Dairy Australia. [online] Dairyaustralia.com.au. Available at: Environment-and-resources/Climate/MicroSite1/Home/Climate-impacts-and-responses/ Adaptingto-climate-change/Adapting-the-dairy-industry.aspx [Accessed 1 Nov. 2014]. IBGE, (2010) Censo Atlas Demográfico. [online] Censo2010.ibge.gov.br. Available at: apps/atlas/ [Accessed 3 Nov. 2014]. IBGE, (2014). IBGE :: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. [online] Ibge.gov.br. Available at: home/estatistica/popula cao/projecao_da_populacao/2008/ [Accessed 3 Nov. 2014]. INCRA (Insituto de Colonizacao e Reforma Agraria), FAO, Novo Retrato da Agricultura Familiar O Brasil Redescoberto, FAO, INCRA, Brasília. IPCC, (2000). Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change.,. Emissions scenarios. [S.l.]: [s.n.] M9 Final Report, (2009). International Dairy Federation/Dairy Industry Association of Australia Functional Dairy Foods Conference: February 2009, Melbourne, Australia. Nutrition & Dietetics, 66(2), pp MMA, Minestério do Meio Ambiente. Subsídios para a Elaboração do Plano de Ação para a Prevenção e Controle do Desmatamento na Caatinga. [online] mma.gov.br. Available at: _do_desmatamento_na_caatinga_168.pdf [Accessed 26 Set. 2014] Pecuaria Rural BR, (2014). Setor do leite aposta no planejamento e no manejo para garantir a produção em Minas Gerais. [online] RuralBR. Available at: [Accessed 1 Nov. 2014]. Silanikove, N. and Koluman, N. (2015). Impact of climate change on the dairy industry in temperate zones: Predications on the overall negative impact and on the positive role of dairy goats in adaptation to earth warming. Small Ruminant Research 123 (2015) Silva, T., Moura, M., Sá, I., Zolnier, S., Turco, S. and Souza, L. (2010). Cenários de mudanças climáticas e seus impactos na produção leiteira em estados nordestinos. Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient., 14(8), pp