European ecosystems in alternative future worlds

Transcription

1 European ecosystems in alternative future worlds Tim Carter Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE

2 Aim of this presentation To illustrate four common steps in the development of scenarios, namely: 1. Devise the focal questions of the scenarios 2. Construct scenario storylines 3. Quantify scenario elements 4. Regionalise scenarios (optional)

3 1. Focal questions: Contrasting objectives; contrasting scenarios

4 Global MA Regional ESPON/FARO ATEAM/ALARM Spatial planning Ecosystems EU policy-makers Research Examples of global and regional scenarios Scenarios GSG GEO-3/GEO-4 SRES Shell/WBCSD WWV Orientation Academic Sustainable development Climate change Ecosystem services Environment Water Target audience Research Policy Research/policy Awareness raising/policy Business Policy Notable feature Path-setting Illustrative Pervasive Multi-scale Illustration only, not to be cited Abstract Precautionary Prescriptive Exploratory

5 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios Focus: plausible future changes in ecosystems, in the supply of and demand for ecosystem services, and in the consequent changes in human well-being Key concerns: identified through a survey of user needs and interviews with decision-makers and leaders. Included: globalization leadership poverty and inequality technology local flexibility surprises

6 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: conceptual framework Source: MEA, 2003

7 2. Storylines: Narrative descriptions of future worlds

8 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) storylines Global Orchestration Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden Nelson et al., 2005

9 Global Orchestration The Global Orchestration scenario depicts a worldwide connected society in which global markets are well developed. Supra-national institutions are well placed to deal with global environmental problems, such as climate change and fisheries. However, their reactive approach to ecosystem management makes them vulnerable to surprises arising from delayed action or unexpected regional changes. Nelson et al., 2005

10 Order from Strength The Order from Strength scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, and paying little attention to the common goods, and with an individualistic attitude toward ecosystem management. Nelson et al., 2005

11 Adapting Mosaic The Adapting Mosaic scenario depicts a fragmented world resulting from discredited global institutions. It sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the strengthening of local institutions. Investments in human and social capital are geared toward improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and management, resulting in a better understanding of the importance of resilience, fragility, and local flexibility of ecosystems. Nelson et al., 2005

12 TechnoGarden The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and on highly managed and often-engineered ecosystems to deliver needed goods and services. Overall, eco-efficiency improves, but it is shadowed by the risks inherent in large-scale humanmade solutions. Nelson et al., 2005

13 Some other storylines

14 Global Scenarios Group (GSG): Three archetypal scenarios of the future Conventional Worlds: current trends play out without major discontinuity and surprise in the evolution of institutions, environmental systems and human values. Barbarization: fundamental social change occurs, but is unwelcome, bringing great human misery and collapse of civilized norms. Great Transitions: fundamental social transformation but to a new and arguably higher stage of human civilization. Gallopin et al., 1997

15 Scenarios structure with illustrative patterns of change Conventional Worlds Reference Policy Reform Barbarization Breakdown Fortress world Great Transitions Ecocommunalism New sustainability paradigm Gallopin et al., 1997

16 UNEP s Global Environmental Outlook Four storylines (GEO-3 and GEO-4): Markets First Policy First Security First Sustainability First Source: UNEP, 2007

17 GEO-4 Sustainability First The dominant characteristic of this scenario is the assumption that actors at all levels local, national, regional and international, and from all sectors, including government, private and civil actually follow through on the pledges made to date to address environmental and social concerns. This implies behaviour that honours not only the letter, but also the spirit of these promises. Source: UNEP, 2007

18 IPCC* Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): Scenario framework and change drivers Environmental emphasis A1 storyline: B1 storyline Global Integration World: market-oriented Economy: fastest per capita growth Population: 2050 peak, then decline Governance: strong regional interactions; income convergence Technology: three scenario groups: A1FI: fossil intensive A1T:non-fossil energy sources A1B: balanced across all sources A2 storyline World: differentiated Economy: regionally oriented; lowest per capita growth Population: continuously increasing Governance: Self-reliance with preservation of local identities Technology: slowest and most fragmented development World: convergent Economy: service and information based; lower growth than A1 Population: same as A1 Governance: global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability Technology: clean and resourceefficient B2 storyline World: local solutions Economy: intermediate growth Population: continuously increasing at lower rate than A2 Governance: local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity Technology: More rapid than A2; less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1 Regional emphasis Economic emphasis *Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Based on Nakicenovic et al., 2000

19 Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 Low Trust Globalisation A legalistic prove it to me world. Open Doors A pragmatic know me world. Flags A dogmatic follow me world. Shell International Limited, 2005

20 Some common elements of storylines: mixing and matching

21 Comparison of selected global scenarios Raskin et al., 2005

22 Comparison of selected global scenarios /4 MA Global Orchestration TechnoGarden Order from Strength Illustration only, not to be cited Adapting Mosaic GEO-4 Global Environmental Outlook, MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Modified and updated from Raskin et al., 2005

23 3. Quantified scenario elements

24 How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published projections often indirect drivers)

25 Global Population Projections, Nelson et al., 2005

26 How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published projections often indirect drivers) Extrapolate past trends

27 Global trends of technological efficiencies in MA scenarios current trends extrapolation Alcamo et al., 2005

28 How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published projections often indirect drivers) Extrapolate past trends Expert elicitation

29 Results of the 1 st ALTER-Net scenarios questionnaire on Europe in the 2050s The ALTER-Net Summer School Participants, 2006

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31 SRES B2 A1, B1 A2 Population of Europe: Less than present Greater than present Probability < > 605 Population (million) Sample size: 32 ALTER-Net, Peyresq, 2005

32 How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published projections often indirect drivers) Extrapolate past trends Expert elicitation Modelling: Deterministic models Optimization approaches Stochastic models Semi-quantitative approaches

33 Framework of the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE 2.4 MNP, 2006

34 Developing quantitative scenarios for the MA: linkages between models Alcamo et al., 2005

35 Some examples of quantification in scenarios

36 The SRES illustrative scenarios: primary driving forces Family A1 A2 B1 B2 Scenario group 1990 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 Population (billion) World GDP ( US$/yr) Per capita income ratio Nakicenovic et al., 2000

37 CO 2 concentrations projected for the 21st century IPCC, 2001

38 Multi-model global averages and uncertainties of surface warming (w.r.t ) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1. IPCC, 2007

39 GEO-4 Population and GDP per capita Source: UNEP, 2007

40 GEO-4 Global mean temperature change Source: UNEP, 2007

41 GEO-4 Mean species abundance Source: UNEP, 2007

42 4. Regionalisation of scenarios

43 Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated to regions

44 GEO-4 Europe: population and GDP/capita Source: UNEP, 2007

45 GEO-4 Europe: land use change and water stress Source: UNEP, 2007

46 GEO-4 Europe: carbon and sulphur emissions Source: UNEP, 2007

47 GEO-4 Europe: wastewater and species decline Source: UNEP, 2007

48 Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated to regions Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up

49 Examples of global and regional scenarios Scenarios Orientation Target audience Description Global GSG Academic Research Path-setting GEO-3/GEO-4 Sustainable development Policy Illustrative SRES Climate change Research/policy Pervasive MA Ecosystem services Awareness raising/policy Multi-scale Shell/WBCSD Environment Business Abstract WWV Water Policy Precautionary Regional ESPON/FARO Spatial planning EU policy-makers Prescriptive ATEAM/ALARM Ecosystems Research Exploratory

50 ESPON Territorial Futures: Trend Scenario ESPON, 2007

51 ESPON Territorial Futures: Competitiveness-oriented Scenario Attraction and polarisation in Pentagon Rural marginalisation. Industrial decline External immigration flows Severe rural population ageing Intensified impacts of natural hazards (drought, fires, and floods) ESPON, 2007

52 ESPON Territorial Futures: Cohesion-oriented Scenario Attraction and polarisation more diffuse Urban polycentricity Peripheral high-performing zones Reduced regional marginalization Moderate rural population ageing Limited impacts of natural hazards (drought, fires, and floods) ESPON, 2007

53 Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated to regions Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up Regional storylines developed by interpreting global storylines

54 Interpretations of climate policy in the Netherlands according to four SRES-based world views Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2008

55 Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated to regions Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up Regional storylines developed by interpreting global storylines Regional scenarios downscaled from global scenarios

56 Examples of global and regional scenarios Scenarios Orientation Target audience Description Global GSG Academic Research Path-setting GEO-3/GEO-4 Sustainable development Policy Illustrative SRES Climate change Research/policy Pervasive MA Ecosystem services Awareness raising/policy Multi-scale Shell/WBCSD Environment Business Abstract WWV Water Policy Precautionary Regional ESPON/FARO Spatial planning EU policy-makers Prescriptive ATEAM/ALARM Ecosystems Research Exploratory

57 Climate and CO 2 scenarios adopted in ALARM Scenarios Forcing CO 2 Climate models ( ) SRES NCAR-PCM AOGCM CSIRO2 AOGCM HadCM3 AOGCM Rossby Centre RCM GRAS A1FI X X* GRAS-CUT A1FI X X* BAMBU A2 X X X X X SEDG B1 X X* Change in temperature by (Mitchell, 2002) HadCM3 BAMBU CSIRO2 PCM JAN Climate shock Change in precipitation by (Mitchell, 2002) BAMBU HadCM3 CSIRO2 PCM GRAS GRowth Applied Strategy JAN GRAS & GRAS-CUT APR GRAS-CUT Cooling Under Thermohaline collapse APR Narrative storylines BAMBU JUL OCT SEDG Sustainable European Development Goal JUL Socio-economic shocks OCT SEDG BAMBU Business As Might Be Usual IPCC IPCC (2001) (2001)

58 ALARM scenarios, grid cell at Banchory, UK January mean temperature ( C) GRAS-CUT shock scenario (THC shutdown)

59 Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3 After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310 (5752),

60 More mixing and matching...

61 Comparison of selected global scenarios /4 MA ATEAM ALARM ESPON Global Orchestration TechnoGarden Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic A1 B1 A2 B2 GRAS SEDG BAMBU Illustration only, not to be cited Competitiveness? Coherence? Regional scenarios for Europe GEO-4 Global Environmental Outlook, MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Modified and updated from Raskin et al., 2005

62 Now it s your turn!