WATER, AGRICULTURE & FOOD Alberta s Opportunities and Challenges

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1 SUPPLY MANAGEMENT QUALITY WATER, AGRICULTURE & FOOD Alberta s Opportunities and Challenges Brent Paterson, P.Ag. Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development McGill Conference on Global Food Security October 5, 2011

2 Future World Food Requirements World food requirements could double in the next 40 years.

3 World Population Growth Population (billions) billion

4 Per Capita Food Consumption ( ) 3500 Kcal World Developing Countries

5 Changing Diets A significant shift towards more animal protein in developing countries.

6 Future World Food Requirements World Population Growth Per Capita Food Consumption Shift Towards More Animal Protein

7 World Food Production The long-term ability to feed the world s growing population will increasingly depend on: An ever-shrinking land base; and Increased competition for limited water supplies.

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9 Projected Water Scarcity in 2025 Physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Little or no water scarcity Seckler et al, 2002

10 Canada may be one of only a few countries able to produce significant food surplus in the future.

11 Alberta

12 Alberta recognizes the need and opportunity to significantly increase agricultural food production to meet future world demands.

13 GRANDE PRAIRIE FORT MCMURRAY EDMONTON Statistics Population 3.7 Million Ag. Land Base 20 Million ha* Irrigation 0.65 Million ha Cattle 60-65% of Canada s total 5.5 Million 40% of Canada s total 2.5 Million processed/year Hogs 1.5 Million RED DEER CALGARY * Area in white denotes agricultural land base. MEDICINE HAT LETHBRIDGE

14 Production Potential Alberta has significant room to increase crop and livestock production in response to world markets. Productivity in the rainfed regions can potentially double. Productivity in the irrigated region can potentially increase by at least 30%.

15 Alberta Watersheds Hay River Watershed Peace River Watershed Athabasca River Watershed Beaver River Watershed North Saskatchewan River Watershed South Saskatchewan River Watershed Milk River Watershed Transfer of water between these watersheds is not allowed without special provincial legislation. Bulk export of water is also not allowed.

16 Irrigation in Alberta About 520,000 ha of irrigated land is located in the 13 organized irrigation districts. About 120,000 ha are in private developments Calgary Lethbridge

17 Total Irrigated Hectares (Thousands) Alberta Irrigation Growth Year

18 Irrigated Crops in Alberta More than 50 different irrigated crops are currently grown. Cereals 31.3% Forages 37.5% Specialty Crops 13.5% Oil Seeds 13.5%

19 Wheel Move Irrigation Systems Gravity 15.1% 11.1% The next decade will see a significant shift Irrigation to low pressure, drop tube pivot 61.0% irrigation 11.9% systems. Low Pressure, Drop Tube Pivot High Pressure Pivot

20 On-Farm Irrigation Efficiency % % % % % Future 80% Woods ARD, 2010

21 Irrigation Efficiency The irrigation industry currently uses 30% less water to grow a crop than 25 years ago.

22 Irrigation Conveyance Systems Open Channels Conveyance System >7000 km 53% Open channel 47% Buried pipeline Buried Pipelines

23 Increasing the Productivity of Irrigation Water Barley Yield (tonnes/ha) t/ha 900 mm 11 t/ha 6.5 t/ha 380 mm Irrigation Water Crop Yield Irrigation Water (millimeters)

24 Value Adding 5-10 jobs 5-10 jobs 1-2 jobs jobs jobs Ready-to-eat meals > 1000 jobs

25 Food Processing Industries Canola Sugar Beets Meat Potatoes

26 Climate Change The agricultural industry has always adapted to changing climatic conditions on the prairies. However, accelerated changes in our climate will require faster adaptation than ever before. We expect to see both opportunities and challenges related to climate change.

27 Summary World demand for food will grow at an increasing rate. In the short and medium term, countries like Canada will be called upon to help meet the growing demand. Alberta is in a position to diversify and increase productivity.