The Big Global Research Issues and Implications for Australia

Transcription

1 The Big Global Research Issues and Implications for Australia Rob Norton. Regional Director ANZ Better Crops, Better Environment through Science AFIC August 24, 2010

2 Outline of Presentation Introduction to IPNI What is the big nutrient management issue? Current issues Food Security Nutrient balances & NuGIS 4R s of Nutrient Stewardship

3 Establishment and Foundation Potash Institute and then Potash and Phosphate Institute (PPI) trace back to 1930 s in Canada. IPNI officially began operations January 1, Inclusion of N producers Potash & Phosphate Institute (PPI) ceased to exist. PPI s Board committed its scientific staff to IPNI. Not-for-profit international decentralized NGO. Purpose to define strategies for appropriate use and management of plant nutrients. Australia & New Zealand program began October, 2009.

4 IPNI is supported by leading fertilizer manufacturers and industry associations

5 IPNI Current Programs Eastern Europe and Central Asia North America Middle East China Northern Latin America Brazil Africa South Asia SE Asia Latin America Southern Cone Oceania 30 Ph.D. scientists in 10 program areas 150 projects 9 scientists in North America 17 scientists in International regions 4 in management

6 IPNI ANZ Leadership Research Education Member Support Strong alignment with IFA and the goals of FIFA Collaborative projects with Industry stakeholders Science & evidence base for issues relating to nutrient management.

7 Issues around Nutrients Escape to the Environment Eutrophication & Hypoxia Ammonia & air quality Nitrous Oxides as GHG and global warming Nitrate in Drinking water Controlling release (EEF) Sustainability of Cropping Systems Soil organic matter, nutrient cycling & soil structure Trace elements in fertilizers Limits to nutrient recycling Resource availability into the future Profitability and Productivity of Cropping Systems Food security Rising cost of fertilizer (energy costs) Price/Value of commodities Supply and demand dynamics Perceptions of Fertilizers Regulation Soil to Human nutrition Integration into Systems Water, Tillage Crop Genotype Mixed Species

8 Issues around Nutrients Escape to the Environment Eutrophication & Hypoxia Ammonia & air quality Nitrous Oxides as GHG and global warming Nitrate in Drinking water Controlling release (EEF) Sustainability of Cropping Systems Soil organic matter, nutrient cycling & soil structure Trace elements in fertilizers Limits to nutrient recycling Resource availability into the future Profitability and Productivity of Cropping Systems Food security Rising cost of fertilizer (energy costs) Price/Value of commodities Supply and demand dynamics Perceptions of Fertilizers Regulation Soil to Human nutrition Integration into Systems Water, Tillage Crop Genotype Mixed Species

9 What is the big nutrient management issue? Population growth Change in diets due to increasing household incomes in developing countries incomes above $16,000 per yr will rise from 352 mil in 2000 to 2.1 bil by 2030 (World Bank) Demand for non-food uses of crops. Static world land area Climate change Land for nature Energy & Resource availability Food demand to double by 2050

10 World demand for food 10 Population, billions Arable land per capita, ha Source: FAO Source: FAO food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years (Source: Global Challenges for Humanity, 2008 State of the Future, Millennium Project) Need for nutritious foods Highly urbanised population in developed and developing countries

11 Grain Supply and Food Security Global Wheat Production, Consumption & Ending Stocks 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% % Prdn Source, USDA 10% 6% 9% 10% 13% % Trade

12 Implications for Australia Australia produces enough food for 60 million people from around 40 Mha of croplands, with Mha sown each year 20 Mt of wheat + 15 Mt of other crops Produce more using more land (extensification) and/or produce more using more intensive management (intensification) This has been the story of Australian Agriculture Mean Land Limitation Policy Profitability Climate Angus 2001

13 Response of & constraints for Australia Total Factor Productivity of 2.1% per year for the grains industry Age, Education Farm size, intensification Moisture Water is a constraint to growth Sadras & Angus, 2006 Zhou et al, 2009 ABARE Mega Environment Water Use Efficiency Y/WU (691 crops in the literature) China Loess 9.8 kg/ha/mm Medit Basin 7.4 kg/ha/mm NA Plains 6.1 kg/ha/mm SE Aust 9.9 kg/ha/mm

14 What is the potential for intensification? 10 kg/ha/mm WUE = Y/ET (Means) 22 kg/ha/mm WUE = Y(ET-SE) (Boundaries) WUE can be normalised using other variables VPD, Temperature/Daylength Gives a regional mean/benchmark Aim to increase WUE from 10 to 11 (GRDC) Field evaluation of current benchmarks Strategies to raise WUE Can it be done? Hochman et al (2009) 334 crops in Yield Prophet Modeled options for increasing WUE from these farms Y/ET Hochman et al 2010 Doherty et al, 2009 Current 150 pl/m 2 Early Sowing Optimum N All Options

15 Intensification an ongoing story for Australia Australia by 2050 with half current TFP and 10% improvement in WUE produce ~30 Mt wheat (same 13 Mha) Ecological Intensification using crop management best practices Nutrient management will be a key plank along with weed and pest management bound together with good genetics. Resources to produce 30 Mt of wheat & 25 Mt of other grains 50% higher P removal irrespective of efficiency Current P use on grains ~260 kt /year (60% of total P use) Current P content of grain produced ~140 kt/year (0.4% of 35 Mt) Balance = +5 kg/ha/year Continental P balance for grains is positive ie more P is applied than is removed

16 Nutrient Imbalances a big part of the challenge in an open system ? Mining versus Pollution Vitousek et al., 2009, Science China Figures IPNI China Office

17 Nutrient Balances Australia NLWRA/ANRA (2001) Wimmera/Mallee <-50 kg N/ha -2 to -10 kg P/ha Long Term Agronomic Experiments WBP -9 kg N/ha, +2 kg P/ha WWW -12 kg N/ha, +9 kg P/ha LR1-1916

18 Northern Grain Belt Examples Farm surveys Net N removal Growers OK for average summer crops Not so good for winter crops Underuse of K Annual removals closely related to yield Applications insufficient Both N & K budgets show up as low and declining - soil reserves Removal Bell et al. 2010

19 Example Dahlen LT Fertilizer (Wimmera) 15 th Year, mixed crop N*P factorial design, multirate N and P 1996 Colwell P = 24 mg/kg kg P/ha P balanced Soil P stable

20 Comprehensive Nutrient Budget Assessment WA SA Vic Tas NSW Qld N +/~ ~/- - + ~/+ ~/- P ~/+ ~ -/~ + ~/- - K ~ - - S +/~ ~/+ ~/+ + ~/+ -/~ Nutrient Audit as part of ANRA/AAA Based on 1990 s data High level of spatial and temporal variability Linked to soil test data for an assessment of potential nutrient declines, surpluses ANRA Audit (1990 s) ANRA Audit KCl-40 S NSW Vic SA <8 58% 29% 71% % 23% 16% >12 23% 47% 13% Incitec Pivot, 2010 Do we need something better?

21 NuGIS overarching objectives Released August 2010 Grew from Agristats & Soil Testing Summaries from North America Assess nutrient balance and nutrient use efficiency in crop production Identify weaknesses in the assessment process Web-based resource

22 NuGIS output and methodology OUTPUTS: N, P and K maps at county and watershed levels for: Nutrient balances and removal to use ratios Data and calculations: Nutrients in harvested crops Crop production (3-yr average i.e. 2007= ) Nutrient removal coefficients from IPNI summary of university values Manure nutrients Livestock inventory based on USDA-Ag Census Estimates of excretion and recoverability based on USDA-NRCS Fertilizer applied AAPFCO sales data when available When AAPFCO not available, state total partitioned to counties using Ag Census fertilizer and lime expenditures Geospatial techniques used to migrate county data to watersheds for compatibility with water quality models (SPARROW, etc.)

23 P = 0.44* P2O5

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26 1987 P removal to use ratio by 8-digit hydrologic unit 2007

27 Watershed P Balance

28 Applications of NuGIS Guidance in nutrient management education A basis for science-based guidance in marketing of fertilizers and nutrient management related services A tool for integrating nutrient balances in water quality and nitrous oxide emission modeling Factual spatial and temporal input into environmental policy development involving plant nutrients Being considered for India, Canada, Brazil, others Basis for assessing Nutrient Best Management Practices

29 Nutrient BMP s Research proven practices that have been tested through farmer implementation to optimize production potential, input efficiency, and environmental protection (Griffith and Murphy 1991)

30 International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) initiative on fertilizer BMPs Goal ensure plant nutrients are use efficiently and effectively in ways that are beneficial to society without adversely impacting our environment International workshop in Brussels (2007) to define principles of FBMPs and a strategy for wider adoption Global framework from which FBMPs could be adopted.

31 Fixen s global FBMP framework (2007) Fertilizer stewardship goals Fertilizer management objectives Economic Agronomic Environmental Right product Right rate Right place Social Right time Fundamental scientific principles Global Site & grower-specific fertilizer BMPs Refinement 1. a. b. c. 2. a. etc. 1. a. b. c. 2. a. etc. 1. a. b. c. 2. a. etc. 1. a. b. c. 2. a. etc. System assessment

32 Scientific Principles for Fertilizer Management Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place system 4 R s approach as a summary Rate Source Place Time The concept was further developed by IPNI scientists (Bruulsema et al. 2008) Series in Crops & Soils 2009

33 Role of 4Rs in nutrient use regulatory and policy developments Being implemented within the Alberta s N 2 O reduction protocol (NERP) and under consideration in other provinces NERP a proposed system to help reduce on-farm emission of N 2 O designed to reward producers for adoption of sustainable practices reducing emission of nitrous oxide per unit of production

34 So will we feed the 9 billion? What a great time to be in the fertilizer industry Increased productivity to maintain grower viability & create wealth 4R s Australia is lucky it has a choice about how many to feed Role for Australian Science and business at an international scale excellent linkages (ACIAR, GRDC, AusAid, Crawford, CGIAR) In-country programs are a key Coffee production in Peru (BC #1 2007) 4 * Yields with balanced nutrition program Maize Production in Malawi rose from 1.2 to 3.4 Mt with seed and fertilizer

35 Better Crops, Better Environment through Science

36 Zinc essential for life Food Security encompasses food quantity, food nutritional value, food safety and food supply Grain Nutritional Value There are over 450,000 deaths annually under the age of 5 in the Developing World due to Zinc Deficiency Black et al The Lancet Maternal and Child Undernutrition Series

37 World Map Zinc Deficiency Zinc essential for life Soils Humans

38 Grain Nutrient Levels (all in mg/kg) P K S Ca Mg Zn Fe Cu B International CV 53% 20% 24% 61% 33% 41% 62% 61% 71% Australia Australia CV 21% 14% 12% 21% 10% 32% 19% 25% 58% International Values taken from IPNI survey of 130 samples from India, China, Canada, USA, Russia. Australian values taken from IPNI survey of 130 samples from NVT experiments in 2009 from Southeastern Australia. Lowest values in Mallee and EP samples (19 mg/kg) Desired range for human health on grains based diet > ~35 mg/kg

39 Zinc essential for life Response to Zn Yield Response to 7.5 kg Zn 2 of 6 sites Grain Zn Increase on 5 of 6 sites DTPA Zn test available but difficult to find yield responsive sites Peck et al 2008

40 Biofortification of wheat through conventional breeding & use of zinc fertilizer Nutrition objectives get Grain Zn to 35 mg/kg Agronomic approach: Basal & foliar zinc application can dramatically increase grain zinc, but has a minor effect increasing grain yield High seed zinc - vigour, biotic/abiotic stress tolerance Breeding approach For most zinc target crops possible, however, cereals are sensitive, load little zinc into seeds Positive correlation between grain zinc and % protein > negative effect on grain yield (in particular wheat) FIT IN THE VALUE CHAIN FOR FARMERS Good Idea: Important to do: Capable of impact: Value to grower?