Land Use Trends and Loss of Perennial Cover in the Corn Belt States: Biomass Crops as a Multifunctional Alternative

Transcription

1 Land Use Trends and Loss of Perennial Cover in the Corn Belt States: Biomass Crops as a Multifunctional Alternative Mid-Continent Regional Science Association 44 th Annual Conference May 29-31, 2013 Kansas City, Missouri Xiaolan Liu, PhD1 Shyam Nair, PhD2 Frederick Iutzi, MS1 Chenggang Wang, PhD2 1.Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Western Illinois University 2.Texas Tech University 1

2 List of contents What s the Issue? Background & Objectives How Was the Study Conducted? Methods & Data Sources What Did the Study Find? Trend Analysis of Agriculture Land Use Profile Regional CRP Lands & Their Environmental Functions Econometric Model for Driving Factors Implications and Conclusions 2

3 What s the Issue? Current agricultural market and end-use trends create pressures in the Corn Belt to expand commodity crop acreages 3

4 What s the Issue? cont. These expanding acreages wiped out America s grassland at fast pace, which involves conversion of hay and pasture land, and expired CRP land to annual cropping. Marginal Crop Land Expiring CRP Land Converted CRP Land Source: Lyon & Holeman 4

5 What s the Issue? cont. Concerns widely raised on environmental degradation, soil erosion, loss of biodiversity and water quality Does multifunctional approach work well both for agriculture and biofuel production? How? Perennial Grass Crop 5

6 Study Objectives Better understand the regional trends of agricultural land use, the associated factors and environmental consequences; Explore alternative approaches that consider soil quality, regional competitiveness, and CRP criteria in order to better achieve ecological and economic goals; Provide helpful evidences on revising and targeting policy incentives both for environmental sustainability and biofuel development. 6

7 How was the Study Conducted? Regional land use trend analysis, and interaction examination of the structure change; Insight on land types of CRP, their conservation practice and associated environmental functions for specifying the potentials of energy crop land; An econometric land use model was developed by considering the features of land resources and socioeconomic driving forces. The coefficients were estimated by the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) procedure. Multiple data sources: Census , NASS , FSA&NRCS 2011, IL HSM 2010, US NHD 2011, and TIGER

8 What Did the Study Find? Acreage reduction of perennial cover was more than half, cropland turned to unitary structure 8

9 What Did the Study Find? cont. Figure 2 The Deviation of Acreage Share from Mean for Interested Crops in IL 9

10 Frequency Frequency Frequency More Frequency Frequency Frequency What Did the Study Find? Cont. Variances of Land Use Patterns Suggest That Perennial Covers Naturally Suit the Regional Soil Quality and Topography Corn Soybean Hay Acreage share Acreage share Acreage share Woodland Pasture CRP Acreage share Acreage share Acreage share 10

11 What Did the Study Find? cont. $ M 3.7% $117 vs. $58 Table 1. Types of enrolled CRP acres in rental rate classes in IL (data as of Nov. 2010, FSA USDA) Rental Rate Freq. Wetland Marginal Pastureland Tree Practice 48.9% expire by 2014 HEL-EI8 or Greater All Signups of CRP Continuous CRP $/Acre County Acre Acre Acre Acre % Acre % Acre % ,762 1,521 21,218 88, % 286,025 29% 47,064 11% , ,557 90, % 159,421 16% 43,557 10% ,790 2,140 23,143 59, % 161,062 16% 63,758 15% ,103 2,101 22,812 55, % 188,098 19% 112,233 26% ,151 2,058 17,514 28, % 146,401 15% 103,313 24% ,251 1,285 12,514 3, % 59,115 6% 53,842 13% Total ,240 9, , , % 1,000, % 423, % 11

12 What Did the Study Find? cont. Table 2. CRP Acres and Percentage with High Erodibility Index (EI) over Time Region/Year EI 8-15 Acres % Acres % Acres % Acres % Acres % Illinois 188, , , , , Corn Belt 700, , , , , Midwest 2,546, ,566, ,262, ,139, ,749, U.S. Total 14,045, ,277, ,285, ,830, ,797, EI > 15 Acres % Acres % Acres % Acres % Acres % Illinois 472, , , , , Corn Belt 2,160, ,044, ,826, ,649, ,481, Midwest 2,334, ,325, ,079, ,875, ,753, U.S. Total 10,029, ,090, ,345, ,999, ,367, Source: the National Resources Inventory, NRCS USDA 12

13 The geographic location and distribution of potential (usage of) CRP acres 13

14 What Did the Study Find? Cont. IL CRP Land MHB acreages are suitable for perennial crop production MHB acreages, may be suitable for perennial crop production, depend on state. Practice Code Practice Name Purpose Practice Acres CP1, CP2 Establishment of permanent introduced and native grasses & legumes (Ac) To enhance environmental benefits 213,725 CP10 Vegetative cover, grass already established (Ac) To identify land if a grass cover is already established 209,932 Sub Total 423,657 CP38E-1, -2 Establishment of Permanent Introduced and native Grasses & Legumes A specificed habitat can be restored and maintained, as determined by the applicable State- 5,657 Grass-Vegetative Cover developed practice standard. CP38E-10 already Established 576 Sub Total 6,233 To Establish Introduced & Native Grass, Legumes 423,000 Acres MHB acreages, may be partially suitable for perennial crop production Acreage may be suitable for perennial crop production (Gopalakrishnan, G., 2009, 2010) CP4B Permanent wildlife habitat (corridors), noneasement (Ac) 1. Establish a permanent wildlife corridor between exising wildlife habitat areas; 2. Enhance the wildlife in the designated or surounding are. 377 To enhance environment benefits for the wildlife habitat of the designed or surrounding areas. 119,038 CP4D Sub Total 119,415 Sum MHB 549,306 To remove nutrients, sediment, organic matter, pesticides, and other pollutants from surface Filter strips (Ac) runoff and subsurface, and thereby reduce CP21 pollution and protect water quality while enhancing the ecosystem of the water body. 123, Same with CP 21; 2. create shade to lower Riparian buffers (Ac) water temperature to improve habitat, and provide a source of detritus and large woody debris for CP22 aquatic organisms and habitat for wildlife. 96, Convey runoff from terraces, diversions, or Grassed waterways (Ac) other water concentrations without causing CP8A erosion or flooding; 2.Improve water quality 33,118 Sub Total 252,950 Total Acres 802,256 To Remove Nutrients Sediment, Other Pollutants for Water Quality, Ecosystem, etc. 253,000 Acres 14

15 What Did the Econometric Model Find? Independent Variables Coef. Corn Eq. Coef. Soy Eq. Coef. Hay Eq. Coef. Wood Eq. Ceof. Pasture Eq. Coef. CRP Eq. price xx meanpi rmsepi xx xx cdindex lagshare xx lagprod xx cornlagprod xx soylagprod wage xx fert xx xx farmno xx farmsize ownfarm xx stayfarm xx age farmsale -7.53E E E E E-6 xx farminc xx xx xx -1.21E E E-5 road water xx xx xx rail Constant ( )

16 What Did the Econometric Model Find? cont. A. Current corn/soybean land use structure is likely to remain in the future; B. Soil PI is a significant indicator on whether the land is suitable for commodity crops or perennial covers ; C. The corn acreage was predicted to expand to areas with higher soil productivity variability; D. Corn productivity has a negative and significant effect on soybean acreage share and all other types of land-use share; E. CRP acreages is more likely being affected by the increased productivity of corn and soybean. 16

17 What Did the Econometric Model Find? Cont. F. Market prices influence the corn acreage share more than that of soybean; G. The price of fertilizers and wage rate favor land uses with lower inputs and labor intensity, such as CRP & woodland; H. Road & rail transportation facilities prefers the production of commodity crops, and water-way transportation appears more convenient to biomass crops; I. The target farm segment: older farmers, medium to larger farm size, farms fully owned by operators, operators residing on farm, and farming as the primary occupation. 17

18 Implications & Conclusions Implications: The changes in ag-land-use structure are challenging the natural land-use patterns in the Corn Belt; The negative environmental consequences will become more obvious as the dynamics shift when CRP contracts expire; The motivations of maintaining perennial covers need be triggered by policy incentives and market opportunities. 18

19 Implications & Conclusions Suggestions & Advisable Approach Combine CRP and BCAP together in specified MHB acres and Filter/Buffer acres through loosening CRP harvest criteria. Therefore, perennial cover maintenance both for environment and bioenergy crop production are expected, and Significant program-cost reduction on establishment of biomass crops is anticipated. 19

20 Conclusions Loss of perennial land covers continues as the land area devoted to corn and soybean production increases in the Corn Belt states; CRP land has a high potential to be affected by many driving factors of the underlying land transformation; Multifunctional agriculture might be achievable through the appropriate land and land owners identified for regional development of bioenergy feedstock. 20

21 Questions? Xiaolan Liu, PhD IIRA Western Illinois University Tel Shyam Nair, PhD Post-Doc TTU A Fred Iutzi, MS IIRA at WIU Tel Chenggang Wang, PhD Associate Professor, TTU/A&M Tel ext. 238 Acknowledgements For Research Funder 21