Modelling effects of ground-level ozone on crop growth and yields linking to AGMIP

Transcription

1 Modelling effects of ground-level ozone on crop growth and yields linking to AGMIP Frank Dentener, Gina Mills Maurits van den Berg Lisa Emberson Frank Ewert (AgMIP) Marcello Donatelli (AgMIP) 1

2 WORKSHOP AT JRC ISPRA NOVEMBER 2014 Rationale Experimental evidence indicates that ground level ozone can affect yields and quality past studies mostly based on O 3 exposure trials newer research focus on O 3 fluxes, as indicator for crop damage. Ozone impact research community has been addressing impacts, and the potential benefits of O 3 mitigation strategies (e.g. UNECE Convention Long Transport of Air Pollution, ICP Vegetation, TF HTAP) Relatively little attention for ozone by the agricultural modeling community 2

3 Agro-met and management Factors Winter wheat development stages Climate Temperature Precipitation Radiation CO 2, Soil H 2 O C, N, P, K Management Usual concerns of agronomist: Frost kill (hardening/vernalisation) Is there enough water during flowering Potential/water limited yield Fertilizer/nutrient limitation Avoiding heat stress Harvest conditions Irrigation Fertilization Varieties Sowing date Pests, diseases How does ozone play into this? Is ozone hidden in the calibration/parameterisation? Ozone trends? 3

4 WORKSHOP AT JRC ISPRA NOVEMBER 2014 Workshop objectives (re-)connect the crop model and ozone impact communities ca. 15 participants from ozone impact, atmospheric and crop modelling communities Discuss physiological processes of interaction of ozone with plants, and the link to state-of-the-art crop models Discuss preliminary results of operational crop model(s) Identify work that needs to be done to develop an operational generic crop growth model that accounts for ozone impacts and that can be deployed at national, continental and global levels. Discuss possible steps to scale-up to AgMip type of work. 4

5 WHAT IS AGMIP? 5

6 Research questions What is the impact of ground level O 3 on crop yields: past, present and future? How strong are these impacts compared to changes in CO 2, temperature and water availability; and (how) do these factors interact? Will dynamic models better be able to account for spatial and temporal variations in ozone at different scales, and the (non-linear) response of crops to such variations. Influence on food quality (protein,starch content) Relationship with nitrogen and water use. 6

7 Policy questions Can ozone-o 3 modelling contribute to more realistic assessment of the benefits of air pollution and climate mitigation policies on crop yields? What are the benefits of hemispheric ozone controls for crop yield and quality? What are the implications for global food production/security? How could this contribute to our understanding of (closing or widening) yield gaps? How do efforts to reduce ozone compare to other efforts to stabilize or increase crop yields? 7

8 Next Steps: getting started Selection of selected input datasets and ozone concentrations as input to a small set of crop models to demonstrate the effects and get a feeling of model diversity. Selection of input micrometeorological parameters; soil type, humidity; i.e. all parameters relevant for testing crop growth models for a range of diverse environmental conditions. AgMIP locations. To include ozone in a synthetic/controlled manner, with monthly variations during the growing season (from March- July/August) as indicated below. Tentatively, background ozone of 40 ppb has been chosen, and elevated ozone of 60 ppb. Follow up studies with more realistic ozone variations can be considered in a late stage. Present at next AgMIP meeting in Montpellier. 8

9 Contacts Maurits van den Berg: Frank Dentener: Gina Mils Lisa Emberson 9