National and Global Progress in Drought Monitoring

Transcription

1 National and Global Progress in Drought Monitoring Allan Howard, National Agroclimate Information Service, Agriculture Agri-Food Canada, Regina Saskatchewan Presented to the IISD-GWSP Conference on the Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus May, 2012

2 Vulnerability of Agriculture in Canada Cost of climate extremes Significant damage or loss of production every year Programs for Agricultural Production Losses Only 2010: July: $311M paid for flooded land; June: $67M paid for drought relief 2006: $110M paid for excess wetness; drought hit the same region later that summer : cost of drought: $5.8B to Canada s GDP : only 2005 had no serious drought problems Our Need: To inform Policy What is the impact on Canada s Agriculture industry?

3 The Value of Monitoring Drought Informing policy and response mechanisms Improved targeting and value for programs Precision for extent, location and severity of drought Better defined onset and recovery times Informs markets Informs planning Better understanding of drought What infrastructure will be needed Informs environmental reporting The best value will come from improving our capability for early warning 3

4 Canada is Unique Agricultural area is narrow band across most provinces Huge regional influence: Impact varies from west to east Primary concern is shortage of rainfall; not availability of surface water Data is sparse & unevenly distributed Drought in the Arctic is not well understood

5 12 month Total Precipitation Precipitation associated with SPI varies with region 12 Month SPI

6 Need to Better Understand Impacts Forage Production Potential Percent of Prairie Agricultural Area 57% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Forage Production Potential Percent of Prairie Agricultural Area 25% 18% 0% M ay 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Forage Production Potential Percent of Farms Forage Production Potential Percent of Farms 54% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 29% 17% 0% M ay 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Forage Production Potential Percent of Cattle 54% 100% 80% Forage Production Potential Percent of Cattle 60% 40% 20% 27% 19% 0% M ay 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 6

7 North Amercian Drought Monitor (NADM) US, Canada and Mexico trilateral agreement. Each country reports its own conditions Standardized approach Science and data exchanged Monthly reporting AAFC-NAIS has the lead for Canada Used as a model of international collaboration

8 D. Cripe,

9 Global Drought Monitoring 2007 GEO Ministerial Summit U.S. proposal participating countries build upon existing programs to work toward establishing a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) within the coming decade to provide: A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis Success of the NADM was a major factor Collaborative and operational success More efficient use of resources Opportunity to standardize and share technology 9

10 Progress WCRP Drought Interest Group (May 2009) CLIVAR and GEWEX: develop a wider international activity on drought Drought white paper (December 2010) Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities Drought workshop (March 2011, Barcelona) climate.org/workshop/index.htm WCRP Global Drought Information System Workshop (11-13 April 2012, Frascati) 10

11 Global Drought Information System S. Schubert,

12 Outcomes Three component model acceptable Need to define how outreach will fit in Desire to implement a pilot in 1 2 years Web site must have a roadmap What information becomes public, how is it governed Internal component for discussion, preliminary results Need to coordinate: GEO Ag CoP, WMO, GCOS, desertification, biodiversity US NIDIS proposed as the portal Next Steps: Follow up meeting to develop a roadmap Drought in Agriculture; Beijing Oct

13 World Meteorological Organization Recommended use of SPI to characterize meteorological droughts (World Meteorological Congress 2011) Murcia Spain (2010): countries move beyond rainfall based indices to using more comprehensive data (temp, soils); use a composite approach (like NADM) High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies ( Integrated Drought Management Program ( Global Framework on Climate Services 13

14 North America Climate Services Partnership Drought initiative Trilateral effort: MX, US, Ca Advance existing activities (NADM) Draft Plan 1. Scoping Activity (1 year) 2. Pilot projects (1 3 years) 3. Develop a long range vision (1-5 years) Key points: Advance development of drought definition and indices for NA Integration of soil moisture and test bed studies Better understand end user needs 14

15 Challenges for the Global Community So What syndrome Outcomes for research are better understood than outcomes for other end users Value for investment Science is complex, but Very complex relationship between physically-based indicators and impacts Regional variability; sector specific Socioeconomic factors not well understood Geo-political factors must be considered to be truly global What is the service model? 15

16 Summary New research, models, data, and products present a huge opportunity to better understand drought International standards; Sharing of technology; More cost effective Improved early warning: a significant gain for everyone Proceed with caution: Validation and adaptation to regional conditions needed Need consistent and credible messaging to end users Coordinate with other drought agencies Challenge: the service model End user needs; outreach; sustainable service Collective vision needed for how research will serve end users 16

17 Thank You! Allan Howard