Impacts of rising food and bioenergy demand on land and water use

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1 Impacts of rising food and bioenergy demand on land and water use Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ESSP Workshop "Bioenergy and Earth Sustainability", Brazil,

2 Key messages Research Sustainable bioenergy production in 25: ~5-15 ExaJoule? Land availability for agricultural expansion (pasture?) Role of technological change (ag. production, energy conversion) Role of international trade Climate change and yields (CO2 fertilization?) Food demand patterns? Policy Potential of bioenergy for rural development Critical assessment of bioenergy subsidies (ag. policy, climate policy) Global land use management (land use planning, land rights) Forests/Biodiversity as a global common good Water management and pricing

3 Area-based modelling approach Climate scenarios LPJmL DGVM Potential biomass yields E pot -- global Sustainable land availability E pot -- scenarios ( submitted Beringer, Lucht, Loose et al. (to be

LPJmL biomass simulations fast-growing temperate and tropical trees 9% above-ground biomass harvest every 8 years ( SRWC ) re-growth from stump highly productive grass: Miscanthus, Panicum C4 species

4 LPJmL biomass simulations fast-growing temperate and tropical trees 9% above-ground biomass harvest every 8 years ( SRWC ) re-growth from stump highly productive grass: Miscanthus, Panicum C4 species with low chilling sensitivity harvest after growing season Plantations can be irrigated (with river-routing). Yield potential - grass Yield potential - trees ( submitted Beringer, Lucht, Loose et al. (to be

Validation of simulated yields tdm/ha/yr 5 4 3 2 1 LPJ South East Cornbelt LPJ LPJ Great Plains 24 225 25 LPJ_Mean LPJ_Max

5 Validation of simulated yields tdm/ha/yr LPJ South East Cornbelt LPJ LPJ Great Plains LPJ_Mean LPJ_Max tdm/ha/yr Denmark Germany Sweden England Portugal tdm/ha/yr Brazil ( submitted Beringer, Lucht, Loose et al. (to be

1 A 1% 1% 1% 8% 5% 3% 2% B 1% 1% % 8% 5%

Centers of Plant Diversity, Endemic Bird

6 Land availability - scenarios Food security ( 22 (FAO, A) Expansion of current agricultural areas by 12 Mha B) Protection of existing agricultural areas Biodiversity/Wildernis Wildernis Biodiversity Spatial overlap A 1% 1% 1% 8% 5% 3% 2% B 1% 1% % 8% 5% % % Based on: Biodiversity Hotspots, Centers of Plant Diversity, Endemic Bird Areas, Global 2 Ecosystems, High-Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, Frontier Forests, Last of the Wild ( submitted Beringer, Lucht, Loose et al. (to be

7 Land availability - scenarios Food security ( 22 (FAO, A) Expansion of current agricultural areas by 12 Mha B) Protection of existing agricultural areas Biodiversity/Wildernis Biodiversity Food security Scenario Nature A A 1 B A 2 A B 3 B B 4 Wildernis Biodiversity Spatial overlap A 1% 1% 1% 8% 5% 3% 2% B 1% 1% % 8% 5% % % Based on: Biodiversity Hotspots, Centers of Plant Diversity, Endemic Bird Areas, Global 2 Ecosystems, High-Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, Frontier Forests, Last of the Wild ( submitted Beringer, Lucht, Loose et al. (to be

Results Energy potential Plantation area 43 14 EJ/yr 3 6 Mha moderate protection

8 Results Energy potential Plantation area EJ/yr 3 6 Mha moderate protection Biodiv/Wilderness Cropland strong protection contact: tim.beringer@pik-potsdam.de

9 Climate change (GCM) Demography 4 35 Income vs. Food consumption 1 3 Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 82 * gdp^( ) [R^2 =.66] Income and diet ECHAM4 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 21) GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (15 countries, 199/2) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food/Energy demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints Cereals Sugar beets Oilseeds Pulses LPJ (5x5 km grid) Biophysical inputs (1) MAgPIE a global land use optimisation model 22 grid cells (3 resolution), 1 economic regions 3 production activities (13 crops, livestock, irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion) rotational constraints internal feed balances, international trade (quasi-)endogenous technological change Lotze-Campen et al., in press

Climate change (GCM) 16 14 12 Demography 4 35 Income vs. Food consumption 1 3 Billion 8 6 4 Kcal / Cap / Day 25 2 15 kcal = 82 * gdp^(.142327) [R^2 =.

10 Climate change (GCM) Demography 4 35 Income vs. Food consumption 1 3 Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 82 * gdp^( ) [R^2 =.66] Income and diet ECHAM4 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 21) GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (15 countries, 199/2) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food/Energy demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints Cereals Sugar beets Oilseeds Pulses LPJ (5x5 km grid) Biophysical inputs Lotze-Campen et al., in press Land use pattern

11 Climate change (GCM) Demography 4 35 Income vs. Food consumption 1 3 Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 82 * gdp^( ) [R^2 =.66] Income and diet ECHAM4 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 21) GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (15 countries, 199/2) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food/Energy demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints Cereals Sugar beets Oilseeds Pulses LPJ (5x5 km grid) Shadow prices Biophysical inputs Lotze-Campen et al., in press

12 Climate change (GCM) Demography 4 35 Income vs. Food consumption 1 3 Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 82 * gdp^( ) [R^2 =.66] Income and diet ECHAM4 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 21) GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (15 countries, 199/2) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food/Energy demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints Cereals Sugar beets Oilseeds Pulses % per year FAO Baseline Low_wat_save Baseline+area Required technical change until 25 LPJ (5x5 km grid) 1. Biophysical inputs Lotze-Campen et al., in press.5. World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS

13 Scenario: 1 EJ Bioenergy in 25 Cropland expansion max 25 mio. ha (~18%) Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

14 Scenario: 1 EJ Bioenergy in 25 No cropland expansion Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

15 3. Required rates of technical change in agriculture (25-255) - Baseline plus various biofuel scenarios % per year World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS FAO Baseline Biof 1EJ Biof + area Biof + trade Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

What can we say about global agriculture and what does it take: The global landuse model MAgPIE. 11. October 2011 Anne Biewald

What can we say about global agriculture and what does it take: The global landuse model MAgPIE 11. October 2011 Anne Biewald Outline A description of MAgPIE Policy relevant questions Technical details