A model for social protection in Africa? Ethiopia s PSNP. Tom Lavers Research fellow, UNRISD 11 th June 2014

Transcription

1 A model for social protection in Africa? Ethiopia s PSNP Tom Lavers Research fellow, UNRISD 11 th June

2 Overview Introduction to the PSNP / FSP Political economy of rural development in Ethiopia Implementation of the PSNP in Geblen, Tigray Looking ahead Conclusions 2

3 The Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Since million chronic food insecure people Public works Direct support Food Security Programme comprises: PSNP Complementary Community Investments (CCI) Household Asset Building Programme (HABP) Voluntary resettlement Together aim to achieve graduation 3

4 Agricultural Development-Led Industrialisation (ADLI) Since early 1990s Smallholder-based development strategy State land ownership Aimed to achieve egalitarian economic growth and protection for smallholder farmers But also political dimension 4

5 ADLI and migration in the absence of better employment opportunities, the [land] policy encourages farmers to remain on their land, thereby avoiding unproductive and potentially harmful labor mobility that may even be detrimental to peace and stability (MoFED 2003, p. 27). 5

6 Beyond ADLI from 2005 Limited success evident by early to mid 2000s: Growing unemployment, land shortages and landlessness Growing food insecurity problems (especially 2003) Foreign exchange crisis Renewed push to increase commercialisation of smallholder sector Promotion of a range of agricultural investments Food Security Programme 6

7 Research site: Geblen, Tigray Drought prone, mountainous, severely eroded Land shortages and fragmentation Very little irrigation potential Very food insecure site Data sources: 56 semi-structured interviews in March and April 2010 Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) 7 rounds

8 Households access to agricultural inputs Percentage of respondents Ideal set of inputs (1ha, of which 0.5ha 0 irrigated; male labour; pair oxen) Some land but no male labour 35 Land and labour but no ox 14 Basic set of inputs (some land; male labour; one ox) Source: ERHS (2009) 51 8

9 Access to land in Geblen Percentage of respondents < Landholding (ha) Source: ERHS (2009) 9

10 Food shortages Percentage of respondents ERHS 2004 ERHS Months of food shortage in the previous year Source: ERHS 10

11 The role of the PSNP in Geblen 540 out of 630 households receive PSNP support: 339 in public works 201 receive direct support Additional 284 people involved in a similar cash-for-work programme financed by the Catholic Mission (A rough calculation based on ERHS) In 2009, the PSNP constituted on average 60% of household income, compared to 14% for crop production and 27% from livestock Very few off-farm income opportunities 65 out of 72 people reporting off-farm income reported the PSNP. 11

12 The Food Security Programme in Geblen Resettlement programme ended in 2006 due to land shortages in western Tigray No capital-intensive investments (CCI) HABP extension packages focused on livestock: Bees and hives Improved breed cows Goats 12

13 Household Asset Building Programme (HABP) Local govt officials intimidate me and tell me that I will be removed from the PSNP if I don t take the packages, so I had to take them. The government is looking to make a business out of beehives, they know that they aren t productive (respondent GM16, the most successful beekeeper in Geblen) 13

14 The challenge of graduation No one in the entire wereda had graduated by 2010: the government, everyone knows that this area does not have potential to meet the objectives. There are few areas with less potential than here for graduation (respondent GW3, wereda govt official) Nationally, low rates of graduation only 50k households of 8m participants in first five years 14

15 Local government incentives Top-down targets for government officials 200 beehives distributed in 2009, raised to 250 for % for production in 2009 Tabiya has twice been given a reward for best implementation of policy in Tigray 15

16 Social protection and migration Would-be migrants face loss of land and PSNP the sense of the PSNP is to make people stay [in the countryside] for a period of time the land proclamation is intended to keep people in their place to retain the fertility of the soil (respondent GW3, wereda government official) 16

17 Geblen: extreme or exceptional? 17 Source: CSA

18 Conclusions Can positive aspects of the PSNP be replicated elsewhere? Food insecurity is closely related to land tenure, off-farm employment, migration Food security needs to be considered as part of an overarching development strategy, not as a standalone issue Need to analyse social transfer programmes within their socioeconomic and political contexts 18

19 Looking forward End of current strategies in 2014 New PRSP PSNP phase III National Social Protection Strategy Expand PSNP-type programmes urban and rural (targeted) social pensions Community-based health insurance Weather-indexed crop insurance Off-farm opportunities Industrial development and employment Shoes, textiles, agricultural processing 19