NIGER Food Security Update November 2009

Transcription

1 NIGER Food Security Update November 2009 With the numerous periods of drought and the rainy season cut short at the most vulnerable stages of plant growth and development, crop and agropastoral production levels for the 2009/10 season are down from last year and below average. In general, grain availability in over half the country s farming communities is too poor to meet even three months worth of consumption needs. The largest production deficits involve millet and cowpea crops on which these populations are highly dependent, not only as a source of food, but also as a way of increasing their income. A look at the current food security situation shows what are generally being classified as moderate levels of food insecurity. Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions, November 2009 The Ministry of Livestock and Animal Industries has just released its analysis of the overall pasture deficit, which puts it at 16,137,329 metric tons of dry matter, or the equivalent of 67 percent of nationwide livestock needs in terms of tropical livestock units (TLUs). However, in practice, the actual deficit is probably somewhat smaller, since the herd growth rate was lower than usual and most migratory animals (whose needs are Source: FEWS Niger For more information about FEWS NET s food insecurity scale, visit: included in this figure) have already left the country. Moreover, this year s herd size is at least twice as large as the figure for 2004/05, which indicates a rather good response capacity on the part of pastoralists through destocking. The disruption in cross border trade between Niger and Nigeria over the period from November 5 th through November 16 th slowed shipments of grain, tuber, and vegetable crops from Maradi, Tahoua, and Niamey, and raised the cost of imports. The cost of livestock exports to Nigeria has also increased. Although the border is now normally open, this incident will only encourage stepped up speculation by traders and could begin driving up food prices as of November, instead of in January, as originally anticipated. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Niger Niamey Tel: hyacouba@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Niger: Food Security Update November 2009 Current food security conditions After a late start of season and string of earlier than usual periods of drought, the 2009 growing season for rainfed crops was cut short at a critical phase of plant growth and development. The production estimate issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and endorsed by CILSS assumed that crops in the heading stage at the time of the assessment in early September, when there was good rainfall activity, would reach full maturity while, in practice, the prematurely ending rains caused large numbers of crops to perform poorly. However, the technical discussion workshop for the joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/WFP/Government of Niger Harvest and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) held in Niamey on October 13 14, 2009 and attended by government experts and food security partners predicted that millet and sorghum yields in all 36 departments, with the exception of four, would be below average. Declines in crop yields are estimated at percent in agropastoral areas and at percent in what are normally surplus crop producing areas of Maradi, Tahoua, and Zinder. In general, the technical workshop is expecting per hectare yields to be at least 24 percent below average or, in other words, below the average yield of 365 kg per hectare in the case of millet. However, the aggregate production deficit will be even larger this year owing to below average planting rates due to the need to replant many crops and the late start of season. Figure 2. Livelihood zone map of Niger Thus, grain imports will be crucial to offset the balance sheet deficit for this growing season. Proximate food availability in many areas is already dependent on domestic and foreign trade, and local households are resorting to purchasing their food supplies. Rainfed rice production, which was expected to help mitigate the shortfall in millet production, is also down sharply from last year, or by 67 percent. The irrigated rice harvest in river areas got off to a slow start in early November. Assuming the good outlook for the irrigated rice growing season proves correct, households in these areas should see an improvement in food security conditions through the end of December of this year. Despite good prospects, farmers in most parts of the country have not yet started to plant off season crops, which they normally do by mid October, with their fields still occupied by sorghum crops which have not yet been harvested. The FAO is planning to provide farmers in Téra, Tillabery, Ouallam, Filingué, Dosso, Boboye, Tahoua, Dogon Doutchi, Keita, Bouza, Tanout, Mirriah, Gouré, Matameye, Illéla, and Tchirozérine departments with 117 MT of potatoes, 1,200 kg of vegetable seeds (onions, cabbage, lettuce, tomatoes, and carrots), and 200 MT of NPK fertilizer for the market gardening season. This program, which normally kicks off around this time, is still on hold, until the freeing up of fields for the planting of these crops. This delay in the planting of off season crops could reduce the size of the area under crops and expected output, with most able bodied workers liable to leave the countryside. Food security conditions in farming areas are relatively stable as the harvest season winds down. However, the food situation could abruptly deteriorate in agropastoral and pastoral areas hard hit by production and pasture deficits. The poor performance of cash crops such as cowpeas, the higher than usual level of grain prices, and the delay in the planting of off season crops are all key factors likely to drive up the number of food insecure households. The WFP/Early Warning System national food security and vulnerability survey, whose findings are scheduled to be released sometime in mid December, will help target food insecure population groups in The Ministry of Livestock and Animal Industries has just released its analysis of the overall pasture deficit, which puts it at 16,137,329 metric tons of dry matter, or the equivalent of 67 percent of nationwide livestock needs in terms of tropical Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 1 Desert 1a Bilma oases sub -zone: dates - caravan trade Aïr mountains cultivation zone Pastoral zone Agro -pastoral zone Rainfed agriculture zone 8 Sub -zones of high work out Southern irrigated cash crop zone Komadougou River & Lake Chad cash crop zone Niger River irrigated rice zone BURKINA TILLABERY MALI DOSSO 5 -migration TAHOUA Kilometers 3 MARADI ALGERIA 2 4 NIGERIA 6 ZINDER AGA DEZ Source: FEWS NET Niger 1 1a DIFFA 7 LIBYA CHAD

3 Niger: Food Security Update November 2009 livestock units (TLUs), which is twice as severe as last year s deficit. However, these figures assume an increase in TLUs since last year, which has not materialized with this year s pasture deficits and below normal reproduction rates. The deficit also takes into account the needs of migratory animals, most of which are already gone. Moreover, this year s herd size is at least twice as large as the figure for 2004/08, which indicates a rather good response capacity on the part of pastoralists to this deficit in a time of crisis through a destocking strategy currently in progress, particularly in the case of large animals. A look at the food security situation of pastoral households shows a slight improvement in terms of trade for small animals/grain in the face of the upcoming celebration of Tabaski. However, these terms of trade can be expected to deteriorate if the country s border with Nigeria remains closed. In any case, with this year s record pasture deficits, there is a real risk of high levels of food insecurity in these areas, which will only increase as the hunger season draws near. Moreover, any impediment to the smooth conduct of business on domestic markets and the smooth flow of cross border trade could speed up the materialization of this risk and heighten its impact. Malnutrition levels for the month of October of this year were up from the previous month and from the same time last year. Admissions figures for health facilities showed 23,177 new cases of malnutrition based on weight to height ratios (percentage differences), including 12,749 cases of severe malnutrition (accounting for 55 percent of total admissions), compared with 18,985 new cases in September. However, the nutritional situation in October of this year is even more troubling when compared with the 14,604 reported cases of malnutrition at same time last year. This increase in malnutrition numbers could be attributable to a malfunction in communications equipment, particularly in BLU radios, which are constantly breaking down, or to the resumption of treatment for patients suffering from malnutrition in certain areas by the government and/or its partners after last year s suspension of service. It is very important to closely monitor future trends in nutritional conditions. There could be serious problems in certain areas currently reporting more than 100 new cases of malnutrition per 100,000 population, particularly in Aguié, Dakoro, Guidan Rouldji, Madarounfa, Magaria, Matameye, and Mirriah. These areas are traditional pockets of malnutrition due to local sociocultural factors, regardless of the outcome of the growing season. Markets and trade Markets are well stocked thanks to completed harvests of rainfed crops. However, recent disruptions in cross border trade between Niger and Nigeria over the period from November 5 th through November 16 th of this year slowed shipments of grains, tubers, and vegetables from Maradi, Tahoua, and Niamey, and raised the cost of imports. The cost of livestock exports to Nigeria has also increased. Although cross border trade has since normalized, this incident will only encourage stepped up speculation by traders and could begin driving up food prices as of November, instead of in January, as originally expected. A look at October prices for this year puts the highest price of corn (347 CFAF/kg) on the Tchintabaraden market, which is located in a pastoral area. The lowest price (150 CFAF/kg) was reported by the Gaya market, which gets regular supplies from Mallanville (in Benin). The Mangaizé/Ouallam market, in an area with very little crop production, had the highest price for millet (249 CFAF/kg), while the lowest price (114 CFAF/kg) was reported by the Chadakori market in Table 1. Highest and lowest grain prices in October 2009 Highest Prices (CFAF/KG) Lowest Prices Grains Market Price 2009 Market Price 2009 Millet Mangaize 249 Chadakori 114 Sorghum Niamey 271 Kanembakache 113 Corn Tchintabaraden 347 Gaya 150 Rice Che timari/diffa 639 Wadata/Niamey 400 Source: SIM the Maradi region, which has a relatively good supply of grain crops. The Niamey market had the highest price for sorghum (271 CFAF/kg) due to limited nationwide production and imports, with the lowest price (113 CFAF/kg) reported in Kanembakaché, in Mayahi department (Table 1). In contrast to grain prices, cowpea prices rose sharply, putting them anywhere from 70 to 239 percent above the five year average. The Diffa, Bakin Birdji, Tounfafi, and Sabon Machi markets are even reporting large price hikes (of 85 percent and more) compared with the same time last year. A look at livestock marketing activities during the past month shows large consignments of animals. In fact, all markets reported a larger than usual increase in consignments of all types of animals for this time of year, of anywhere from 33 to Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 Niger: Food Security Update November percent. However, current consignments of large animals are particularly large owing to poor pasture availability, whose effects are especially hard on these types of animals. Consignments of cattle on the Abalak market frequented by pastoralists and agropastoralists, for example, are up by 50 percent from the same time last year. This destocking strategy is enabling pastoralist households, not only to rebuild their food reserves, but to thin their cattle herds at the same time. On the other hand, sales volume in October was down by anywhere from 4 to 14 percent compared with the previous month and with October of last year, depending on the animal species. Average October prices for large animals were down by 3 percent (for cows) and 4 percent (for bulls, bull calves, and heifers) from the previous month and anywhere from 4 to 38 percent below nominal prices for October of last year, particularly on the pastoral Tchintabaraden and Dakoro markets, where the actual price drops were 38 and 35 percent, respectively. These markets are getting larger than usual consignments of animals and are frequented by very few exporters. Terms of trade for bulls and cows have fallen off by 16 and 15 percent, respectively. Thus, the crop and pasture production deficits reported in most parts of the country will further weaken terms of trade, exposing poor pastoralists to high levels of food insecurity. Prices for most types of small animals are still comparatively good. Sheep prices rose by 5 to 8 percent from last month and are anywhere from 3 to 70 percent higher than they were in October of last year on most markets. This improvement in prices, attributable to the upcoming celebration of Tabaski at the end of November, when sheep are the animal of choice for religious sacrifice, has helped boost terms of trade for these animals by 18 percent. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 NIGER Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009 Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. Millet, maize, cowpea (niébé), and imported rice are the most important food commodities. Millet is consumed by both rural and poor urban households throughout the country. Maize and imported rice are most important for urban households, while cowpea is mainly consumed by poor households in rural and urban areas as a protein source. Niamey is the most important national market and an international trade center, and also supplies urban households. Tillaberi is also an urban center that supplies the surrounding area. Gaya market represents a main urban market for maize with cross border connections. Maradi, Tounfafi, and Diffa are regional assembly and cross border markets for Niger and other countries in the region. These are markets where households and herders coming from the northern cereal deficit areas regularly buy their food. Agadez and Zinder are also important national and regional markets. Nguigmi and Abalak are located in pastoral areas, where people are heavily dependent on cereal markets for their food supply. They are particularly important during the rainy season, when herders are confined to the pastoral zone. FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington Niamey 1717 H St NW Tel: Washington DC hyacouba@fews.net info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

6 NIGER Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

7 NIGER Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3