Carbonic Imbalance in the atmosphere main cause of the Global Warming and Climate Change

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1 *K.Iskandarova, **M.Karabayev *National Center for Biotechnology, Kazakhstan **International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center CIMMYT, KazAgroInnovation JSC of the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan Data sources: Kazgidromet National Company Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan Dolgih S., Kazakhstan CIMMYT-Kazakhstan FAO, Turkey, October Carbonic Imbalance in the atmosphere main cause of the Global Warming and Climate Change 2 1

2 No. 1 Environmental Enemy in Production Agriculture Don Reicosky, General assessment For the developing Asian countries with dry climate : Adaptive capacity of anthropogenic systems is low and vulnerability is high The decline in agricultural production because of heat stress, water scarcity and droughts will reduce the food security of many countries in Asia Runoff and water availability may decrease Human health will be jeopardized as a result of increased exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases and heat stress Climate change will increase the demand for energy in summer period and reduce the attractiveness of tourism Climate change will aggravate a threat to biodiversity as a result of changes in land use and land cover 4 2

3 Change in the surface air temperature in Kazakhstan Rise in temperature in the entire area for the period : By C/10 years - in average By C/10 years - in the winter By C/10 years - in the summer 5 Change in extremum temperatures Increase in number of extreme warm days and warm nights Decrease in number of extreme cold days and cold nights Increase of the length of warm waves Decrease of the length of cold waves Decrease of the daily range/amplitude of the air temperature (by 0,18 C/10 years) Increase of the vegetation period 6 3

4 Moisture conditions Evaluated using the Humidity Factor (K), which was calculated as the ratio of precipitation to potential evaporation Data from 60% of the stations show increased aridity/drought in lowland areas of desert and semi-deserts of Kazakhstan and the surrounding areas thereto Decrease in some extent aridity/drought in the extreme northern regions of Kazakhstan, Ural region, the mountainous areas of south and south-east of the country due to more increase of rainfall 7 Main facts on climate change The widespread increase in seasonal and annual surface air temperature Almost country-wide increase in precipitation during winter Almost constant rainfall in summer In the most parts of Kazakhstan, an increase of precipitation does not compensate raising air temperature Increased irregularity of rainfall in time, when heavy rains are followed by a period of drought, has negative effect Intensive rainfall in summer do not provide enough soil moistening/hydration (fast evaporation, low soil absorbance) 8 4

5 Expected climate change: Key Findings Rise in the seasonal and annual surface air temperature The increase in winter precipitation Decline in summer precipitation An increase of precipitation will not compensate for increase in air temperature For all scenarios, the change trends towards increased aridity/drought North and Central Kazakhstan. Summer, FOOD SECURITY 10 5

6 Food security (1) About 70 % of the potential damage from unfavourable/adverse weather and climatic conditions falls on agricultural production Wheat is the main component of food security in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan is among the six world exporters of grain, mainly of spring wheat North Kazakhstan, the main wheat producing region, is the area of high risk agriculture Crop losses from adverse weather conditions in the rainfed areas reach up to 50-70% The negative effect of the traditional agrotechnologies (soil degradation, erosion, low crop diversification, salinization, etc.) 11 Source FAO

7 Food security (2) Sheep breeding is leading livestock industry in Kazakhstan Sheep and goats quantity: in mln, in mln The main product of sheep breeding is sheep wool, meat, karakul lambskin and sheepskin Approx. 74% of agricultural animals are in households, 19% - in farms, 6% - in agricultural enterprises Large companies only are capable to keep the traditional transhumant grazing Most of the sheep throughout the year are kept around settlements, without separation of pasture for the season, which led to a deterioration of their species composition and to a sharp decline in pasture productivity Privately owned and small farmers cannot increase the number of cattle and enhance the quality of commodity products Restoration and improvement of the pastures is a key challenge for livestock sector 13 Climate change and agriculture 14 7

8 The potential effect of climate change on agriculture More frequent droughts, increased dry areas Change in agro-climatic conditions and as a consequence, change in agrotechnologies and crop diversification Decreased yields of spring cereals because of a significant increase in air temperature Reduced productivity of rangeland and pastures Increase in the period with a stable hot weather for the sheep The worsening of water shortage problems on distant pastures The increase in animal diseases Change in the timing of the agricultural and zootechnical activities 15 Ploughing up of the virgin lands in the mid of 1950s had led to the dramatic loss of soil fertility in Kazakhstan 16 8

9 Adoption of Conservation Agriculture in Northern Kazakhstan General overview of Conservation Agriculture/No-tillage adoption Country Area under No-tillage (ha) 2007/ USA BRAZIL ARGENTINA CANADA AUSTRALIA PARAGUAY CHINA KAZAKHSTAN BOLIVIA URUGUAY SPAIN SOUTH AFRICA VENEZUELA FRANCE FINLAND CHILE NEW ZEALAND COLOMBIA UKRAINE RUSSIA? Others (Estimate) Total Source: Derpsch, R. and Friedrich, T., 2008, unpublished data 9

10 CA in Kazakhstan - the way to improve soil moisture storage in the field due to high stubble. Snow capturing differences between conventional and no-till technologies No-till Conventional No-till No-till Water Resources Kazakhstan is a region of water scarcity The main part of water resources is surface water Total surface water is equal to km³ annually, including 57 km³ that are formed in Kazakhstan, the rest 58.8 km³ is being formed in neighboring countries (China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia) In the last decade, river flow from neighboring countries to Kazakhstan declined by 15.1 km³ per year Production of water-intensive crops (mainly cotton and rice) has led to extreme environmental consequences in some regions of Kazakhstan 20 10

11 Ecosystems and Biodiversity 21 Ecosystems and biodiversity (1) Climate change is in addition to human impacts on ecosystems and species (habitat change because of changes in land use, pollution, invasive and alien species, etc.) Effect on the species due to changes in phenology, lengthening of growing seasons, and changes in the distribution of species as a result of their migration Danger to the ecotones (transition areas between different ecosystems with a great diversity of species and genetic diversity). Examples: semi-arid dry lands, forest-steppe areas affected by desertification Nonlinear effect on biological diversity after critical points are achieved. As a result of rapid warming, many species may disappear Degradation of the Alpine meadows and glaciers 22 11

12 Ecosystems and biodiversity (2) Kazakhstan has a sparse forest cover. Percentage of forest land, taking into account saxaul and shrubs, is 4, 5%. The forest itself covers only 1.2% of the country area The country s main biodiversity is concentrated in the forests Uncontrolled logging, fires, the reduction tree planting and reforestation activities have reduced the forest resources Climate change can lead to a substitution of valuable forests to less valuable ones Some areas may become a territory not suitable for forest trees growth The offset of climatic zones to the north can lead to the spread of fires, pests and diseases, destruction of forest ecological systems In general, forests in Kazakhstan are very vulnerable to climate change 23 The impact on regional development Current status: About 45% of the population lives in rural areas Most of Kazakhstan's poor population live in rural areas Migration of youth to cities and as a result ageing of rural population Social troubles increase the death rate Potential changes: Increase of vulnerability of living sources in rural areas Decrease in employment rate in rural areas Increased inequality between producers of agricultural products Emigration of rural people from disadvantaged areas Emigration from urban areas because of pollution at an elevated background temperature Limited capacity of rural populations to adapt to rapid changes due to climate change, to form virtually new systems of agriculture Worsening of situation in unfavorable regions for living (e.g. Aral Sea region) 24 12

13 . Population health Severe climate-geography conditions worsened by anthropogenic factor Possible increase of death rate Larger effect of environment polluters because of rising temperatures The growing effect of increased frequency of dust storms, forest and grassland fires The most vulnerable are people with chronic diseases, children and elderly people Decline of socio-economic standards of life because of increased aridity, drought, salinization, land degradation and desertification 25 Emergency situations Increased forest fires Increased frequency of heat waves Spring floods Increased mudflows Set-up/set down activities in the Caspian Sea Intensification of thunderstorms 26 13

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