World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

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1 ISSN Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board October 9, 2009 WHEAT U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 121 million bushels higher this month as increased production and lower expected use more than offset a 10-million-bushel reduction in carryin. Production is raised 36 million bushels based on the Small Grains 2009 Summary report. Feed and residual use is lowered 45 million bushels on lower-than-expected disappearance during the June-August quarter as indicated by the September 1 stocks. Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as larger supplies in major export competitors reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments. If realized, 2009/10 ending stocks would be a 9-year high at 864 million bushels. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $4.55 to $5.15 per bushel compared with $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel last month. Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 2.2 million tons higher as a 4.4-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets a 2.2-million-ton reduction in beginning stocks. Foreign production is raised 3.4 million tons with increases in several major exporting countries. Production is raised 2.0 million tons for Canada as favorably dry, warm September weather extended the Prairie growing season by as much as 3 weeks boosting yields for this year s delayed crop. Russia production is increased 1.0 million tons based on higher reported spring wheat yields, particularly in Siberia. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for EU-27 with increases reported for Poland and Hungary. Production is increased 0.5 million tons each for Algeria, Australia, and Kazakhstan. September rains were favorable for flowering and heading wheat in Australia s western and southern growing areas where higher yields are expected to more than offset losses from sustained dryness and heat in eastern growing areas. Lower expected production in Brazil and Chile partly offsets rising output elsewhere. Brazil production is lowered 1.0 million tons as continued heavy, late-season rains reduce prospects for yields and quality. Chile production is lowered 0.5 million tons on lower reported area. A number of small, mostly offsetting, production changes are made in Sub-Saharan African countries. Global wheat trade for 2009/10 is projected higher with much of the increase reflecting higher projected imports by Brazil and exports by Canada. Brazil imports are raised 1.0 million tons. Smaller import increases are also made for Bangladesh, Chile, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia. Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton reduction in imports for Algeria. Exports are raised 1.5 million tons for Canada. Exports also are raised 0.5 million tons each for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons for Mexico. These increases more than offset the 1.4-million-ton reduction for the United States. Global consumption is raised 2.1 million tons with higher expected wheat feeding in China, EU-27, Brazil, and Russia; and higher food, seed, and industrial use in Canada, Algeria, and Iran more than offsetting lower feed and residual use in the United States and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are nearly unchanged at million tons, up just 0.1 million from last month. COARSE GRAINS U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected higher this month as increased corn and barley production and higher sorghum beginning stocks more than offset lower corn carryin and reduced sorghum production. September 1 corn stocks, as reported in

2 WASDE the September 30 Grain Stocks report, reduced 2009/10 corn beginning stocks as higher corn use for ethanol, sweeteners, starch, and exports boosted June-August use. Corn production for 2009/10 is forecast 63 million bushels higher with a 2.3-bushel-per-acre yield increase more than offsetting a 700,000 acre reduction in harvested area. Total corn supplies are projected 42 million bushels higher. Total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is increased 5 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the higher forecast yield and crop. Food, seed, and industrial use is also projected higher, up 5 million bushels, on higher expected use for sweeteners with tight sugar supplies. Offsetting most of the increase in domestic use is a 50- million-bushel reduction in projected exports. Increased supplies of feed grains in Canada and larger world wheat supplies are expected to increase competition for U.S. corn exports. Corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 37 million bushels higher and just below the revised estimate for the 2008/09 marketing year. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price projection is unchanged at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel. Sorghum supplies for 2009/10 are projected 12 million bushels lower as reduced production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Production is forecast 26 million bushels lower with reduced area and yields. Beginning stocks are estimated 15 million bushels higher based on the September 1 stocks. Barley supplies for 2009/10 are raised 21 million bushels based on higher estimated production from the Small Grains 2009 Summary report. With a 10-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual as indicated by the September 1 stocks, ending stocks are projected at a 5-year high, up 31 million bushels from last month. Projected 2009/10 farm prices for sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged this month; however, the barley and oats ranges are narrowed. Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are increased 4.7 million tons, mostly reflecting higher corn beginning stocks and increased barley output. Global corn beginning stocks are raised 2.2 million tons with upward revisions to 2008/09 production for Brazil and South Africa, and higher reported stocks for Canada. Barley production is raised 4.4 million tons with higher output in Russia, Algeria, EU-27, the United States, Canada, and Australia. Global corn production for 2009/10 is lowered 1.5 million tons with reductions for China, Russia, and a number of smaller countries only partly offset by increases for the United States, EU-27, Ukraine, Canada, and several Sub-Saharan African countries. China corn production is lowered 5.0 million tons on confirmation that unusual heat and dryness during late July and early August severely hampered corn pollination in the western growing areas of the northeast. Increased harvested area for China partly offsets this month s yield reduction. World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected lower for 2009/10 mostly reflecting reduced prospects for U.S. corn exports, down 1.3 million tons, and lower expected corn imports by Canada, down 1.5 million tons. Other mostly offsetting corn trade changes include lower imports for Chile and higher imports for Colombia. Reduced barley exports for EU-27 are partly offset by an increase for Russia. Global coarse grain feeding is raised 3.5 million tons as higher corn feed and residual use for the United States, China, Brazil, EU-27, Mexico, Ukraine, and Colombia are only partly offset by reductions for Canada and Chile. Barley feeding is raised for Russia, Algeria, Ukraine, Australia, and Canada. Global coarse grain ending stocks are nearly unchanged from last month as a 2.9-million-ton reduction in corn stocks is more than offset by a 3.3-million-ton increase in barley stocks. Global barley ending stocks are projected at a 5-year high. RICE U.S. rice production in 2009/10 is forecast at million cwt, 1 percent above last month due entirely to an increase in yield. Average yield is estimated at 7,115 pounds per acre,

3 WASDE up 64 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 3.10 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at million cwt, 1 percent above last month, while combined mediumand short-grain production is forecast at 66.4 million cwt, also up 1 percent. The total rice export projection at 96 million cwt is unchanged from a month ago; however, exports of long-grain are raised 1.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered by 1.0 million. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 46.6 million cwt, 5 percent above last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.00 to $14.00 per cwt, down 65 cents per cwt on both ends of the range. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $11.75 to $12.75 per cwt, down $1.15 per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, up $1.25 per cwt on each end. Large exportable supplies of long-grain rice among the major Asian exporters, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, will pressure prices, while tighter global supplies of medium-grain rice will help to support prices. Projected global 2009/10 rice production is nearly unchanged from a month ago; however, there are a number of offsetting changes. Production projections are lowered for Bangladesh, Colombia, the Philippines; but raised for the United States, China, and a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. The 2009/10 Bangladesh rice crop is projected at 30.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month. China s rice crop is raised 900 thousand tons to million, the largest crop since 1999/00. Global exports are projected at 29.8 million tons, up nearly 0.5 million largely due to an increase for Vietnam. Global consumption is up slightly from a month ago with levels raised for China and a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa; and lowered for Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 85.9 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, but down 4.8 million from 2008/09. OILSEEDS U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 7.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as larger supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 96.1 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month as higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and canola production more than offset lower peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at a record billion bushels, up 5 million from last month based on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at 42.4 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from the previous estimate. Total soybean supplies are forecast up 32 million bushels due to increased crop production and beginning stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to billion due to increased supplies, lower prices, and increased global import demand, mainly for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. Prices for soybeans and soybean meal are projected lower for 2009/10. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price range is projected at $8.00 to $10.00 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $245 to $305 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at million tons, up 2.6 million from last month. Increased soybean and rapeseed production are only partly offset by lower peanut and cottonseed production. Global soybean production is projected higher with increases for the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay only partly offset by lower production for China. Argentina soybean production is raised 1.5 million tons to 52.5 million due to increased area as producers shift to soybeans from other crops including corn and sunflowerseed. China soybean production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 14.5 million due to lower harvested area as producers shifted more area to corn. Global rapeseed production is projected higher mainly on increases

4 WASDE for Canada and EU-27. Production in Canada is projected at 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million based on the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. EU-27 rapeseed production is projected at a record 20.6 million tons, up 0.6 million. Global peanut and cottonseed production are reduced mainly due to lower estimates for both crops for China. Other changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina, higher sunflowerseed production for EU-27, and higher cottonseed production for India. Global oilseed stocks for 2009/10 are raised 4.5 million tons to 66.0 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with increases projected for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and China. Rapeseed stocks for Canada and EU-27 are also increased. China soybean imports are raised for 2008/09 and 2009/10 to 40.7 million and 39.5 million tons, respectively. SUGAR Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is decreased 8,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Imports of specialty sugar, announced in September along with the 2009/10 tariff rate quota, nearly offset lower beginning stocks. Projected Louisiana sugar production is unchanged. Despite an increase in forecast total sugarcane production in Louisiana, assumed higher use of sugarcane for seed and lower sugar recovery from sugarcane are offsetting. Estimated 2008/09 U.S. sugar supply is reduced 97,000 tons from last month, based on preliminary full-year data. Sugar production is lowered 63,000 tons, mainly due to lower beet sugar production. Imports are decreased 34,000 tons as lower imports under the tariff rate quota more than offset higher other imports. On the use side, deliveries for non-food uses are lowered 14,000 tons based on the pace through August. Projected 2009/10 Mexico sugar supply is decreased 120,000 metric tons, raw value, from last month. Production is lowered 100,000 tons in line with producer projections in Mexico. Beginning stocks are lowered 20,000 tons, as Mexico=s exports in 2008/09 were higher than expected. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is raised as higher pork production more than offsets lower beef and turkey production. Pork production is raised mainly due to higher third-quarter slaughter and significantly higher weights due to favorable summer weather. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected cow slaughter. The turkey production forecast is reduced on slightly lower third-quarter output. Broiler production is unchanged. Meat production forecasts for 2010 are lowered from last month as higher beef production due to larger feedlot placements in 2009 is more than offset by lower pork and turkey production. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 25, indicated producers plan to farrow fewer sows during the remainder of 2009 and into 2010, which, coupled with fewer imports of hogs from Canada results in a lower production forecast. Turkey hatchery data indicates a slower expansion in production during The broiler production forecast is unchanged from last month. Red meat and poultry export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are mostly unchanged from last month. Turkey exports are raised for Import forecasts for beef for both 2009 and 2010 are reduced reflecting lower expected beef supplies in Oceania. Pork import forecasts are raised slightly for Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys are lowered for fourth-quarter Weak demand and large supplies of meat continue to pressure prices. Prices are expected to remain

5 WASDE under pressure into next year and 2010 forecasts are reduced from last month. The egg price forecast is unchanged for fourth-quarter 2009 and throughout The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as milk per cow is forecast higher and the rate of decline in cow inventories is lowered in Import forecasts are raised as butterfat and cheese imports are stronger than expected. Stronger world dairy prices and a weak U.S. dollar are expected to increase export demand for U.S. dairy products. The commercial fat basis export forecast is raised for 2010, and on a skim-solids basis, commercial exports are raised for both 2009 and Net removals reflect adjustments in CCC and Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) activities for nonfat dry milk (NDM), butter, and cheese. Firmer domestic and export demands are expected to support prices for cheese, whey, and NDM. However, butter prices are forecast lower as supplies remain large. Class III prices for 2009 and 2010 are raised from last month and Class IV prices are raised for The all milk price is forecast at $12.35 to $12.45 per cwt for 2009 and $14.70 to $15.60 for COTTON The 2009/10 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower production and offtake compared with last month. Beginning stocks are raised marginally to reflect the U.S. Census Bureau s final estimate of 2008/09 ending stocks. Production is lowered 3.3 percent to 13.0 million. Texas accounts for most of the decline; production in the Mississippi Delta states is reduced 85,000 bales. Domestic mill use also is lowered, reflecting the continued sluggish pace of U.S. textile exports. Exports of cotton remain unchanged at 10.5 million bales. Ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales to 5.4 million. The forecast for the marketing-year average price received by producers is reduced 2 cents per pound at the top of the range to 49 to 57 cents. The world 2009/10 cotton forecasts mainly include small adjustments, with the most significant changes occurring in the China balance sheet. World beginning stocks are raised 1.0 million bales, reflecting higher stocks in China resulting from an upward revision in 2008/09 production. A reduction of 1.0 million bales in China s 2009-crop production forecast more than offsets the higher beginning stocks; adverse harvest weather is reported to have affected yield prospects in the Yangtze region. Lower production estimated for China, the United States, and Uzbekistan is partially offset by increases for India and Argentina. World consumption, trade, and ending stocks are virtually unchanged. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY JOSEPH W. GLAUBER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

6 WASDE INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Note The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report. Wheat Jerry Norton, ICEC Chair, WAOB, jnorton@oce.usda.gov Gary Vocke, ERS; Teresa McKeivier, FAS; William Chambers, FSA. Rice Andrew C. Aaronson, ICEC Chair, WAOB, aaaronson@oce.usda.gov Nathan Childs, ERS; Debbie Rubas, FAS; Mark Simone, FSA. Feed Grains Jerry Norton, ICEC Chair, WAOB, jnorton@oce.usda.gov Allen Baker, ERS; Richard O=Meara, FAS; Pete Riley, FSA. Oilseeds Keith Menzie, ICEC Chair, WAOB, kmenzie@oce.usda.gov Mark Ash, ERS; Bill George, FAS; Max Fisher, FSA. Cotton Carol Skelly, ICEC Chair, WAOB, cskelly@oce.usda.gov Darryl Earnest, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS; James Johnson, FAS; Steven Neff, FSA. Sugar John Love, ICEC Chair, WAOB, jlove@oce.usda.gov Stephen Haley, ERS; Ron Lord, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FSA. Meat Animals Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, sshagam@oce.usda.gov Sherry Wise, AMS; Mildred M. Haley, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Dale Leuck, FSA. Poultry Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, sshagam@oce.usda.gov Larry Haller, AMS; David Harvey, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA. Dairy Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, sshagam@oce.usda.gov Jerry Cessna, AMS; Roger Hoskin, ERS; Paul Kiendl, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA. In 2009, the WASDE report will be released on Nov. 10 and Dec. 10. In 2010, the WASDE report will be released on Jan. 12, Feb. 9, Mar. 10, Apr. 9, May 11, Jun. 10, Jul. 9, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 8, Nov. 9, and Dec. 10.

7 WASDE T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S Page Highlights...1 Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees...6 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains...8 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton...9 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds U.S. Wheat Supply & Use U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use U.S. Rice Supply & Use U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use U.S. Sugar Supply & Use Mexico Sugar Supply and Use U.S. Cotton Supply & Use World Wheat Supply & Use World Coarse Grains Supply & Use World Corn Supply & Use World Rice Supply & Use World Cotton Supply & Use World Soybean Supply & Use World Soybean Meal Supply & Use World Soybean Oil Supply & Use U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products U.S. Meats Supply and Use U.S. Egg Supply & Use U.S. Milk Supply and Use U.S. Dairy Prices Reliability Tables Related USDA Reports Metric Conversion Factors Electronic Access and Subscriptions...40

8 WASDE October 2009 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons Total Total Ending Commodity Output Supply Trade 2/ Use Stocks World Total grains 3/ 2007/08 2, , , /09 (Est.) 2, , , /10 (Proj.) September 2, , , October 2, , , Wheat 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Coarse grains 4/ 2007/08 1, , , /09 (Est.) 1, , , /10 (Proj.) September 1, , , October 1, , , Rice, milled 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October United States Total grains 3/ 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Wheat 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Coarse grains 4/ 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Rice, milled 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October / Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).

9 WASDE October 2009 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons Total Total Ending Commodity Output Supply Trade 2/ Use Stocks Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ 2007/08 1, , , /09 (Est.) 1, , , /10 (Proj.) September 1, , , October 1, , , Wheat 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Coarse grains 5/ 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Rice, milled 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October / Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales Total Total Ending Commodity Output Supply Trade 2/ Use Stocks World 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October United States 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Foreign 3/ 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October / Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.

10 WASDE October 2009 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Total Total Ending Commodity Output Supply Trade Use 2/ Stocks World Oilseeds 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Oilmeals 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Vegetable Oils 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October United States Oilseeds 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Oilmeals 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Vegetable Oils 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Foreign 3/ Oilseeds 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Oilmeals 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October Vegetable Oils 2007/ /09 (Est.) /10 (Proj.) September October / Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States.

11 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 ============================== Est. September October Area Million acres Planted Harvested Yield per harvested Bushels acre Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,051 2,499 2,184 2,220 Imports Supply, total 2,620 2,932 2,961 2,987 Food Seed Feed and residual Domestic, total 1,051 1,260 1,268 1,223 Exports 1,263 1, Use, total 2,314 2,275 2,218 2,123 Ending stocks CCC inventory Free stocks Outstanding loans Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ U.S. Wheat by Class Supply and Use Year beginning Hard Hard Soft June 1 Winter Spring Red White Durum Total 2008/09 (estimated) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 1, ,499 Supply, total 3/ 1, ,932 Domestic use ,260 Exports ,015 Use, total ,275 Ending stocks, total /10 (projected) Beginning stocks Production ,220 Supply, total 3/ 1, ,987 Domestic use ,223 Exports Use, total ,123 Ending stocks, total October September Note Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.

12 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 ============================== Est. September October FEED GRAINS Area Million acres Planted Harvested Yield per harvested Metric tons acre Million metric tons Beginning stocks Production Imports Supply, total Feed and residual Food, seed & industrial Domestic, total Exports Use, total Ending stocks, total CCC inventory Free stocks Outstanding loans CORN Area Million acres Planted Harvested Yield per harvested Bushels acre Million bushels Beginning stocks 1,304 1,624 1,695 1,674 Production 13,038 12,101 12,954 13,018 Imports Supply, total 14,362 13,739 14,660 14,702 Feed and residual 5,913 5,231 5,350 5,400 Food, seed & industrial 4,387 4,976 5,475 5,480 Ethanol for fuel 2/ 3,049 3,700 4,200 4,200 Domestic, total 10,300 10,207 10,825 10,880 Exports 2,437 1,858 2,200 2,150 Use, total 12,737 12,065 13,025 13,030 Ending stocks, total 1,624 1,674 1,635 1,672 CCC inventory Free stocks 1,624 1,674 1,635 1,672 Outstanding loans Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ Note Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or Feed Grains Database at " 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.

13 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 ============================== Est. September October Million bushels SORGHUM Area planted (mil. acres) Area harv. (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Supply, total Feed and residual Food, seed & industrial Total domestic Exports Use, total Ending stocks, total Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ BARLEY Area planted (mil. acres) Area harv. (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Supply, total Feed and residual Food, seed & industrial Total domestic Exports Use, total Ending stocks, total Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ OATS Area planted (mil. acres) Area harv. (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Supply, total Feed and residual Food, seed & industrial Total domestic Exports Use, total Ending stocks, total Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ Note Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.

14 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 ============================== Est. September October TOTAL Area Million acres Planted Harvested Yield per harvested Pounds acre 7,219 6,846 7,051 7,115 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ Production Imports Supply, total Domestic & residual 3/ Exports, total 4/ Rough Milled (rough equiv.) Use, total Ending stocks Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ LONG GRAIN Harvested acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) 6,980 6,522 Beginning stocks Production Supply, total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, total Ending stocks Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN Harvested acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) 7,924 8,063 Beginning stocks Production Supply, total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, total Ending stocks Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ Note Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt) 2007/08-0.8; 2008/09-1.3; 2009/ / Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated.

15 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 =============================== Est. September October SOYBEANS Million acres Area Planted Harvested Bushels Yield per harvested acre Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,677 2,967 3,245 3,250 Imports Supply, total 3,261 3,187 3,366 3,398 Crushings 1,803 1,662 1,690 1,690 Exports 1,159 1,280 1,280 1,305 Seed Residual Use, total 3,056 3,049 3,145 3,169 Ending stocks Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL Beginning stocks 3,085 2,485 3,100 2,875 Production 20,580 18,800 3/ 19,180 19,180 Imports Supply, total 23,730 21,375 22,355 22,130 Domestic 18,335 16,300 16,500 16,500 For methyl ester 3,245 1,850 2,100 2,100 Exports 2,911 2,200 3,250 3,250 Use, total 21,246 18,500 19,750 19,750 Ending stocks 2,485 2,875 2,605 2,380 Average price (c/lb) 2/ Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL Beginning stocks Production 42,284 39,206 3/ 40,235 40,235 Imports Supply, total 42,768 39,600 40,700 40,700 Domestic 33,232 30,700 30,800 30,800 Exports 9,242 8,600 9,600 9,600 Use, total 42,474 39,300 40,400 40,400 Ending stocks Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ Note Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October-year crush of 1,655 million bushels.

16 WASDE October 2009 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 ======================= Est. September October ====================================================================== 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 1,799 1,660 1,307 1,224 Production 2/ 8,152 7,508 8,025 8,025 Beet sugar 4,721 4,184 4,700 4,700 Cane sugar 3,431 3,324 3,325 3,325 Florida 1,645 1,577 1,700 1,700 Hawaii Louisiana 1,446 1,400 1,300 1,300 Texas Imports 2,620 3,082 2,087 2,162 TRQ 3/ 1,354 1,375 1,182 1,257 Other program 4/ Other 5/ 701 1, Mexico 694 1, Total supply 12,571 12,250 11,419 11,411 Exports Deliveries 10,773 10,896 10,375 10,375 Food 10,571 10,735 10,140 10,140 Other 6/ Miscellaneous 7/ Total use 10,911 11,026 10,575 10,575 Ending stocks 1,660 1, Stocks to use ratio ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2009/10 are based on Crop Production and trend recovery rates. 3/ For 2009/10, includes shortfall of 200,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Does not include Mexico TRQ imports. For 2007/08, other high-tier (0) and other (0). For 2008/09, other high-tier (2) and other (0). For 2009/10, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Includes SMD miscellaneous uses and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports. Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/ ========================================================================== Supply Use Fiscal year ==================================================== Ending Beginning Production Imports Domestic Exports stocks stocks 2/ ========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons, raw value Sugar 2008/09 est. Sep 1,975 5, ,540 1, Oct 1,975 5, ,540 1, /10 proj. Sep 665 5, , Oct 645 5, , ` ========================================================================== 1/ U.S. HFCS exports to Mexico (metric tons, dry-weight basis) Oct-Sep 2007/08 = 427,705; Oct-Jul 2007/08 = 346,853; Oct-Jul 2008/09 = 224,814. Footnote source U.S. Census Bureau. 2/Includes domestic consumption and Mexico's products export program (IMMEX).

17 WASDE October 2009 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ 2009/10 Projections Item 2007/ /09 =============================== Est. September October Million acres Area Planted Harvested Pounds Yield per harvested acre Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ Production Imports Supply, total Domestic use Exports Use, total Unaccounted 3/ Ending stocks Avg. farm price 4/ Note Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.

18 WASDE October 2009 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Supply Use ================================================Ending Region Domestic 2/ stocks BeginningProduc- =============== stocks tion Imports Feed Total Exports 2007/08 World 3/ United States Total foreign Major exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada EU-27 5/ Major importers 6/ Brazil China Select. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected other India FSU Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine /09 (Estimated) World 3/ United States Total foreign Major exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada EU-27 5/ Major importers 6/ Brazil China Select. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected other India FSU Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine / Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

19 WASDE October 2009 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Supply Use ================================================Ending Region Domestic 2/ stocks BeginningProduc- =============== stocks tion Imports Feed Total Exports 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ September October United States September October Total foreign September October Major exporters 4/ September October Argentina Sep Oct Australia Sep Oct Canada Sep Oct EU-27 5/ Sep Oct Major importers 6/ September October Brazil Sep Oct China Sep Oct Sel. Mideast 7/Sep Oct N. Africa 8/ Sep Oct Pakistan Sep Oct SE Asia 9/ Sep Oct Selected other India Sep Oct FSU-12 Sep Oct Russia Sep Oct Kazakhstan Sep Oct Ukraine Sep Oct / Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

20 WASDE October 2009 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Supply Use ================================================Ending Region Domestic 2/ stocks BeginningProduc- =============== stocks tion Imports Feed Total Exports 2007/08 World 3/ United States Total foreign Major exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada Major importers 5/ EU-27 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected other Brazil China FSU Russia Ukraine /09 (Estimated) World 3/ United States Total foreign Major exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada Major importers 5/ EU-27 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected other Brazil China FSU Russia Ukraine / Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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