Global Economic Prospects, 2007

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1 Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization Richard Newfarmer and Paul Brenton World Bank February, 2007

2 Strong growth in developing economies 7.0 Real GDP annual percent change Forecast 6.0 Developing Source: World Bank 2008

3 Strong growth in developing economies 7.0 Real GDP annual percent change Forecast 6.0 Developing Source: World Bank 2008

4 10 Growth, though tapering off, will likely remain solid over the medium term in most regions Percent change, GDP East-Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle-East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank

5 and growth in Africa is likely to remain strong Percent change, GDP South Africa Nigeria Kenya Tanzania Uganda Source: World Bank

6 The next wave of globalization.. is likely to spur faster growth through four channels: trade, finance, people and technology and pose critical challenges Stresses over income distribution and in labor markets could undermine potential growth and failure to manage environmental pressures entails serious risks Policy responses to these stresses are so far inadequate to the challenges, so new efforts are needed at both the national and multilateral level

7 Developing countries share of world trade will rise as global integration intensifies US$2001 trln. 30 Exports from developing and developed countries, $27 trln 25 High-income countries Developing countries 45% 0 22% 32% Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.

8 China, India, and other developing countries will become centers of global demand over the next quarter century $2001 trillion GDP at PPP exchange rates Other developing countries China USA EU India

9 Growth would raise income and reduce absolute poverty Average per capita incomes in developing countries are likely to double.. Even so, huge disparities will remain Developing countries average incomes, now 16% of rich countries, will rise to about one-quarter African incomes, though growing more rapidly, would still be less than 10% of rich countries

10 Growth would raise income and reduce absolute poverty Average per capita incomes in developing countries are likely to double.. and more people from developing countries will enter the global middle class 1400 Number of people (million) Africa South Asia Middle East Latin America Europe & Central Asia East-Asia

11 Growth would raise incomes and reduce absolute poverty Average incomes are likely to double and more people from developing countries will enter the global middle class and sharp reductions in dire absolute poverty 1,400 Millions of people 1,200 1,000 28% Other Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa 20% South Asia 12% 8% East Asia

12 More acceleration is possible and Africa could grow even faster than our high growth scenario Income growth per capita, percent per annum 2010/ Base scenario High growth Scenario 0 East Asia S. Asia E. Europe & C. Asia M. East & N. Afr S.S. Africa Latin Am. Africa s s advantages: : demographics, technological leap-froging froging, labor costs, and natural resources

13 Managing stresses: uneven benefits Returns to skilled workers will likely rise relative to unskilled workers Ratio of skilled wages relative to unskilled wages East Asia E. Eur & C. Asia Latin Am. M. East & N. Afr. S. Asia S. S. Africa Source : Bank staff calculations

14 Managing stresses: environmental pressures Global institutions and policies are still too weak to deal with severe environmental pressures Carbon emissions are causing global warming Annual carbon emissions (millions of tons) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Others Large developing countries High-income countries Source: OECD GREEN model simulations

15 Realizing the potential of global integration requires an affirmative policy response domestically and globally Domestic policy must enhance competitiveness and ensure that growth is broadly shared Institutional measures to raise productivity and growth Removing barriers to integration Improving investment climate Investing in education Protecting workers but not jobs Multilateral collaboration Using development assistance to promote integration of lagging countries Removing barriers to the products that the poor produce Near-term priority: Completing Doha round in the WTO Reinforcing mechanisms to protect the global commons

16 Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization Richard Newfarmer and Paul Brenton World Bank February, 2007

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