Global Shrimp Aquaculture Industry Dynamics
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1 Global Shrimp Aquaculture Industry Dynamics Rabobank F&A insights Lian Heinhuis, Food and Agribusiness Research November
2 Table of contents Sections I General outlook: times of supply volatility to persist II Developments in key import markets III Analysis of key production regions IV Challenges V Opportunities and concluding remarks 2
3 1 General outlook: times of supply volatility to persist 23
4 Key observations on the shrimp industry I High supply volatility expected to remain due to recurring disease issues II Re-ranking of leading exporters III Good global demand which is expected to continue IV Emergence of new business models and a holistic approach to biosecurity V Growing importance of sustainability and certification 4
5 2 Developments in key import markets
6 000 tonne Main export markets stable in volume terms i.e. consumption per capita is not increasing Shrimp imports in volume by EU countries, USA and Japan EU 28 Extra EU 28 Intra USA Japan Source: Globefish
7 billion usd But there has been considerable growth in value Shrimp imports in value by EU countries, USA and Japan (includes E8 internal trade) EU 28 Extra EU 28 Intra USA Japan Source: Rabobank, FAO
8 3 Analysis of key production regions 23
9 Total supply of farmed shrimp: tentative growth expected, but low prices will dampen recovery Global farmed shrimp supply LAM Asia E 2015F 2016F 10% 5% 3% 4% 2% 7% 5% 9% 6% 4% 0% -5% E 2015F 2016F -2% -3% Source: Rabobank
10 Bulk of industry is in SE Asia, but highest supply and export growth rate is likely to be outside of this region E Thousands tonnes China 67 Thailand Viet Nam Brazil Ecuador Mexico India Indonesia 2,5 4 Australia Malaysia Myanmar Philippines 10 29
11 thousand tonnes Thailand: a shrimp empire collapsed, but recovery seems on the way Thai shrimp aquaculture production E 2015F 2016F Source: Rabobank, based on FAO and other sources
12 A perfect storm in the Thai shrimp industry EMS TARIFFS TIP 12 12
13 thousand tonnes China: light supply recovery, will not match demand China: farmed shrimp production E 2015F 2016F Source: FAO, Rabobank
14 Thousand tonnes Shrimp demand is strong and is being fulfilled by imports that are much higher than stated in official data China: shrimp imports and exports in volume (official figures) Total Imports Total Exports Source: Rabobank, Uncomtrade
15 Booming Indian shrimp exports % of volume map shows 86% of value EU (#1) 65,603 tonnes $352 million Japan (#2) 28,815 tonnes $192 million USA (#3) 21,538 tonnes $141 million UAE(#4) 6,837 tonnes $42 million in order of trade volume 15
16 Booming Indian shrimp exports % of volume map shows 83% of value EU (#2) 52,780 tonnes $495 million Japan (#4) 19,793 tonnes $244 million USA (#1) 82,199 tonnes $1,063 million Vietnam (#3) 33,269 tonnes $366 million in order of trade volume 16
17 Million Kilos Billion US Dollars Exports to US, EU are increasing, but uncertainty remains Indian shrimp exports by volume and value , ,5 2 1,5 Processed Fresh or chilled Frozen Trade value , Source: Uncommtrade
18 Thousands MT Prevalence of EHP is expected to result in a 10-20% decline of farmed shrimp production in India Total production of farmed shrimp in India , f Source: Seafood Exporters Association of India 18
19 Summary: how long will Asia be the dominant shrimp exporter of the world? I Recovering volumes but just slightly II Costs are still high III New business model needed IV Strong domestic demand V Long term net trade position of Asia likely to decline 19
20 Rising Ecuadorian shrimp exports % of volume map shows 98% of value USA (#2) 51,565 tonnes $293 million Colombia (#3) 1,914 tonnes $5 million EU (#1) 72,836 tonnes $390 million 853 tonnes Japan (#5) $6 million Chile (#4) 1,581 tonnes $9 million in order of trade volume 20
21 Rising Ecuadorian shrimp exports % of volume map shows 93% of value USA (#2) 73,323 tonnes $631 million EU (#1) 83,376 tonnes $622 million China (#4) 8,173 tonnes $72 million Colombia (#5) 4,609 tonnes $24 million South Korea (#6) 3,976 tonnes $33 million Vietnam (#3) 37,536 tonnes $301 million in order of trade volume 21
22 Million Kilos Billion US Dollars Ecuador is export focused, was the # 1 beneficiary of the disease issues in Asia Ecuadorian shrimp exports by volume and value , ,5 2 1,5 Processed Fresh or chilled Frozen Trade value , Source: Uncommtrade
23 million lbs million lbs Ecuador s industry shifts attention to Asia and China and becomes the link between Asian and Western markets Ecuadorian shrimp exports by volume in May (left) and YTD May (right) ,35 2, ,9 10, ,79 0,78 3,87 18,43 0,62 1,71 9,23 14,97 0,42 3,6 10,93 20,13 26,69 16, ,82 3,6 4,83 5,98 24,12 36,89 75,49 65,77 1,89 14,66 65,82 73,81 118,47 72, ,34 23,17 19,51 20, ,47 80,49 89,73 76,56 0 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 0 YTD '12 YTD '13 YTD '14 YTD '15 Europe USA Asia Americas Africa Europe USA Asia Americas Africa Source: Urner Barry
24 Thousands MT Millions Although the latest figures show the pressure on the Ecuadorian industry as a result of recovery in Asia YTD shrimp exports Ecuador in volume and value (first 7 months of the year) 200 1, , , ,4 1,35 Volume Value , , ,2 Source: Central Bank of Ecuador 24
25 thousand tonnes Brazil: Unfulfilled promise, can this change in the current conditions? Brazil shrimp aquaculture E 2015F 2016F Source: Rabobank
26 thousand tonnes Mexico huge potential but mysteriously stuck by EMS from the other side of the Pacific Ocean E 2015F 2016F Source: Rabobank, Kontali, Subsecretaría de Pesca 26
27 2 Year change (depreciation) against USD Exchange rates are an important factor for the competitiveness of shrimp producers on global markets 0% IDR VND INR CNY THB BRL MXN -5% -6% -5% -4% -10% -15% -14% -20% -25% -21% -23% -30% -35% -40% -45% -44% -50% 27
28 LAM summary: potential for further growth I Well positioned region, with low cost II But many challenges, not living up to the potential so far III Ecuador seems unique IV LAM growth forecasts are difficult due to the unpredictable situation in Brazil and Mexico V Potentially the most profitable shrimp farming region 28
29 4 Challenges
30 With the introduction of Vannamei shrimp there was increased growth, but also increased biological risk 000 MT of farmed shrimp Monodon other Other Vannamei Vannamei introduction Industry 400% growth Aquaculture starts initially with wild juveniles Monodon farming drives growth Global prices high 1 Monodon culture faces biological challenges Cost rise 2 Shrimp Aquaculture Source: Rabobank, FAO
31 Why is shrimp farming a sector with high biological risk especially in Asia? Typical shrimp farming business model in Asia Fish by-products as input for feed Trading Feed manufacturing Fish & shrimp processing Juveniles Fish meal and other commodities Shrimp farming Source: Rabobank 31 31
32 This means a large part of the farming is done by peasant or subsistence farmers Many shrimp farmers in Asia are subsistence farmers moving into shrimp from other agricultural activities Experience and knowledge as well as control at this critical point can be low This business model is often successful for poverty alleviation but has a higher risk 32 32
33 .and there are many other factors that cause supply side volatility 1 It s the youngest animal protein industry 2 All shrimp farming is done in developing countries 3 It s a tropical species 4 There are many different business models and sanitary levels neighboring each other 5 Even with the closed system, farming is still open to the environment 6 Shrimp is a heavily traded product, even among exporters 33 33
34 5 Opportunities and concluding remarks
35 Opportunities: there is shrimp farming potential also in relatively unexplored regions Africa Australia Middle East 35
36 Another opportunity: increased cooperation within the sector to tackle disease issues- like was done in the Chilean salmon industry 36
37 GSI: a game-changing industry dynamic, tackling the image of salmon farming with NGOs, governments and customers Lower lice levels Biosecurity Eliminate escapes Reduce environmental impact of farms Standards Focus on reducing marine ingredients from wild catch fisheries Feed and nutrition Source only from sustainable marine ingredients Source: GSI
38 Concluding remarks I A period of high supply (and price) volatility is to persist II Asian producers are challenged with biosecurity issues and competitiveness III Future potential growth areas for export are especially in LAM, but also in Australia, Africa and ME IV To ensure sustainability of the industry, cooperation is key 38
39 Important notice This presentation has been prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of Gemba Consulting (or the Company ), and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Huon. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of the Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. ( Rabobank ). The information in this presentation reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgment as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This presentation is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information and opinions contained in this document are wholly indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas et cetera contained in this presentation. This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation. This document shall not form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. 39
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