World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 SUMMARY REPORT

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1 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 SUMMARY REPORT

2 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 SUMMARY REPORT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS - Rome, 2017

3 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. FAO, 2017 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO s endorsement of users views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via or addressed to copyright@fao.org. FAO information products are available on the FAO website ( and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org.

4 Contents PREFACE TECHNICAL NOTES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND AND BALANCES SUMMARY v vi viii THE WORLD FERTILIZER OUTLOOK 1 SUPPLY... 2 FERTILIZER DEMAND... 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES... 4 ANNEXES 1. World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes N) World and regional phosphate supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes P 2 ) World and regional potash supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes O) World and regional nitrogen fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes N) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to World and regional phosphate fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes P 2 ) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to World and regional potash fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes O) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to Regional classification of countries and territories iii

5 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Figures Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in Tables Table 1. Total world nutrient capacity of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, (thousand tonnes)... 2 Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, (thousand tonnes)... 2 Table 3. World demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use, (thousand tonnes)... 3 Table 4. World demand for fertilizer nutrient use, (thousand tonnes)... 4 Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash, (thousand tonnes)... 5 iv

6 The world fertilizer outlook Preface FAO, in collaboration with other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group dealing with fertilizer production, consumption and trade, annually provides five-year forecasts of world and regional nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizer supply, demand and potential balance. The Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group comprises:»» Fertiliser Association of India FAI»» International Fertilizer Association IFA»» International Fertilizer Development Center IFDC»» K+S KALI GmbH K+S»» The Fertilizer Institute TFI»» Fertilizers Europe»» Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO FAO and other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group met in June 2016 to review the medium-term supply and demand prospects for nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizer, and to prepare forecasts for the period , the results of which are presented in this report. The contributions made by the members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group, and the preparation of the FAO baseline data by Simona Mosco, Javier Montero-Serrano and Francesco Tubiello from the FAO Statistics Division, are gratefully acknowledged. This final report was prepared by Debra Turner, Plant Nutrition Officer FAO, under the supervision of Caterina Batello, Senior Officer FAO, and overall direction of Hans Dryer, Director Plant Production and Protection Division FAO. The forecast data presented in this report are based on the expert views of the different organizations participating in the June 2016 FAO/Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group meeting. They are not necessarily consistent with the FAOSTAT historical data series. v

7 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Technical notes on supply, demand and balances All references relating to fertilizers are in terms of the three primary plant nutrients as follows:»» nitrogen (N)»» phosphorus (P), expressed as phosphate (P 2 )»» potassium (K), expressed as potash ( O) The fertilizer demand and supply data refer to calendar years. Definitions of the terms used are provided below: Capacity: nameplate capacity. Supply: effective capacity, representing the maximum achievable production. Supply is computed from the nameplate capacity (theoretical capacity), multiplied by the highest operating rate achieved in the previous 5 years. For new plants, a ramp up of the operating rates was established for the first 3 years of operation, ranging from 85 to 100 percent. Nameplate capacity operating rates and demand for fertilizers vary from year to year. In the case of phosphate, the supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ). Demand: Fertilizer demand is the purchase of fertilizer at a given point in time. The forecast is based on the views of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group. Non-fertilizer demand is consumption for non-fertilizer use and is referred to as industrial and other demand. Net non-fertilizer demand excludes the use vi

8 The world fertilizer outlook of nutrients (N, P 2 or O) that are recovered as by-product from industrial processes and then used as fertilizer. Phosphate fertilizer consumption/demand includes H 3 PO 4 -based fertilizer demand and non-h 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand. The non-h 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand includes P 2 through single super phosphate, rock phosphate, etc. Total demand is fertilizer demand + non-fertilizer demand. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the is the mean annual growth rate and calculated with the following formula: 1 CAGR = End value Start value number of years -1 Potential balance: is the difference between supply and total demand (fertilizer demand + nonfertilizer demand). Regional balance is a medium-term indicator of potential changes in fertilizer nutrient demand and supply in the region. Installed supply capacity, operating rates and demand vary annually. vii

9 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Summary World consumption of the three main fertilizer nutrients, nitrogen (N), phosphorus expressed as phosphate (P 2 ), and potassium expressed as potash ( O), is estimated to reach million tonnes (N, P 2 and O) in 2016, up by 1.4 percent over 2015 consumption levels. The demand for N, P 2, and O is forecast to grow annually on average by 1.5, 2.2, and 2.4 percent respectively from 2015 to Over the next five years, the global capacity of the production of fertilizers, intermediates and raw materials is also expected to increase. viii

10 The world fertilizer outlook 1

11 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 SUPPLY The global total nutrient capacity (N, P 2 and O) was million tonnes in 2015 (Table 1), out of which the total supply was million tonnes (Table 2). During 2016, the total capacity is expected to increase by 3.7 percent and supply to grow by 1.7 percent. Over the following four years to 2020 global capacity and production of fertilizers are expected to increase further. Table 2 shows estimated world supply of ammonia ( ), phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ) and potash from 2015 to Detailed regional and subregional information is provided in Annexes 1, 2 and 3. Table 1. Total world nutrient capacity of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, (thousand tonnes) Year Ammonia ( ) as N Phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ) as P Potash as Total (N+ P 2 + O) Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, (thousand tonnes) Year Ammonia ( ) as N Phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ) as P Potash as O Total (N+ P 2 + O)

12 The world fertilizer outlook FERTILIZER DEMAND Demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use The global demand for non-fertilizer use of nutrients (N, P 2 and O) for 2015, and the forecast for global demand for non-fertilizer use of nutrients for 2016 to 2020 are summarized in Table 3. Total non-fertilizer nutrient use demand was estimated to be million tonnes in 2015 and is forecast to reach million tonnes by The regional and sub-regional demand forecasts for nitrogen, phosphate and potash for non-fertilizer use for 2015 to 2020 are presented in Annexes 1, 2 and 3. Table 3. World demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use, (thousand tonnes) Year Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P 2 ) (H 3 PO 4 -based) Potash ( O) Total Demand for fertilizer nutrients The global demand for fertilizer nutrients (N, P 2 and O) for 2015 and the demand forecast estimates for 2016 to 2020 are summarized in Table 4. Total fertilizer nutrient demand was estimated to be million tonnes in 2015 and is forecast to reach million tonnes in With an average annual growth of 1.9 percent in the following years, it is expected to reach million tonnes by the end of The demand for N, P 2, and O is forecast to grow annually by 1.5, 2.2, and 2.4 percent respectively for the individual nutrients from 2015 to

13 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 The world and regional demand forecasts for the three main plant nutrients for 2015 to 2020 are presented in Annexes 1, 2 and 3, as well as in Annexes 4, 5 and 6 where compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are also provided. Table 4. World demand for fertilizer nutrient use, (thousand tonnes) Year Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P 2 ) Potash ( O) Total (N+ P 2 + O) SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES The potential balance of nitrogen, phosphate (H 3 PO 4 -based) and potash is derived from the maximum achievable production (supply) minus the forecasts for total demand as follows: Potential balance = supply (non-fertilizer demand + fertilizer demand) where supply of each nutrient is referred to as:»» N through ammonia ( )»» P 2 through phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 )»» O through potash ( O) Unforeseen factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations, logistical problems, unscheduled shut down due to technical reasons, natural calamities (earthquake, mine flooding, etc.) are not considered in the balance. Demand forecasts are based on agronomic considerations (e.g. cropped area and application rate of fertilizer), market feedback, estimates by industry associations, growth models, econometric models and expert advice. 4

14 The world fertilizer outlook The potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash for the years 2015 to 2020 is presented in Table 5. Regional estimates are presented in Annexes 1, 2 and 3. Figure 1 indicates the regional potential N, P 2 and O balance situation in 2020, the final year of the forecast period. Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash, (thousand tonnes) Year Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P 2 ) (H 3 PO 4 -based) Potash ( O) Total (N+ P 2 + O) Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in Thousand MT Africa North America Latin America & Caribbean West Asia South Asia East Asia Central Europe West Europe East Europe Central Asia Oceania N P

15 The Annexes world fertilizer outlook 6

16 The world fertilizer outlook Annex 1 World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes N) WORLD capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance AFRICA capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance AMERICAS capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance North America capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance Table follows in the next page >> 7

17 World fertilizer trends and outlook to Latin America & Caribbean capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance ASIA capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance West Asia capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance South Asia capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance East Asia capacity supply capability N other uses Table follows in the next page >> 8

18 The world fertilizer outlook N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance EUROPE capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance Central Europe capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance West Europe capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance East Europe and Central Asia capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance Table follows in the next page >> 9

19 World fertilizer trends and outlook to OCEANIA capacity supply capability N other uses N available for fertilizers N fertilizer demand Potential N balance

20 The world fertilizer outlook Annex 2 World and regional phosphate supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes P 2 ) WORLD H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance AFRICA H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance AMERICAS H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability Table follows in the next page >> 11

21 World fertilizer trends and outlook to H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance North America H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance Latin America & Caribbean H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance ASIA H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability Table follows in the next page >> 12

22 The world fertilizer outlook H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance West Asia H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance South Asia H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance East Asia H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand Table follows in the next page >> 13

23 World fertilizer trends and outlook to H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance EUROPE H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance Central Europe H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance West Europe H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand Table follows in the next page >> 14

24 The world fertilizer outlook H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance East Europe & Central Asia H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance OCEANIA H 3 PO 4 capacity H 3 PO 4 supply capability H 3 PO 4 industrial demand H 3 PO 4 available for fertilizer P fertilizer demand H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Non-H 3 PO 4 fertilizer demand Potential H 3 PO 4 balance

25 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Annex 3 World and regional potash supply, demand and balance (thousand tonnes O) WORLD O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance AFRICA O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance AMERICAS O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance North America O capacity O supply capability Table follows in the next page >> 16

26 The world fertilizer outlook Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance Latin America & Caribbean O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance ASIA O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance West Asia O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance South Asia O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer Table follows in the next page >> 17

27 World fertilizer trends and outlook to O fertilizer demand Potential O balance East Asia O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance EUROPE O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance Central Europe O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance West Europe O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance Table follows in the next page >> 18

28 The world fertilizer outlook East Europe and Central Asia O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance OCEANIA O capacity O supply capability Non-fertilizer O demand O available for fertilizer O fertilizer demand Potential O balance

29 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Annex 4 World and regional nitrogen fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes N) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to CAGR (%) WORLD AFRICA North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa AMERICAS North America Latin America & Caribbean ASIA West Asia South Asia East Asia EUROPE Central Europe West Europe East Europe & Central Asia OCEANIA

30 The world fertilizer outlook Annex 5 World and regional phosphate fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes P 2 ) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to CAGR (%) WORLD AFRICA North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa AMERICAS North America Latin America & Caribbean ASIA West Asia South Asia East Asia EUROPE Central Europe West Europe East Europe & Central Asia OCEANIA

31 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Annex 6 World and regional potash fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes O) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to CAGR (%) WORLD AFRICA North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa AMERICAS North America Latin America & Caribbean ASIA West Asia South Asia East Asia EUROPE Central Europe West Europe East Europe & Central Asia OCEANIA

32 The world fertilizer outlook Annex 7 Regional classification of countries and territories AFRICA North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Sudan Tunisia Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Capo Verde Central African Republic Comoros Congo Dem. Rep. Congo Rep. of Côte d Ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Table follows in the next page >> 23

33 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Sudan Swaziland Togo Uganda United Rep of Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe AMERICAS Latin America & Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Bahamas Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Table follows in the next page >> 24

34 The world fertilizer outlook Paraguay Peru Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay Venezuela North America Canada United States of America ASIA East Asia South Asia West Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia China China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR China, Taiwan Province of Indonesia Japan Korea Rep Lao People s Democratic Republic Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Afghanistan Bahrain Cyprus Table follows in the next page >> 25

35 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 Iran Islamic Rep of Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Arab Rep. Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen EUROPE Central Europe Eastern Europe and Central Asia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Macedonia Montenegro Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Estonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Moldova Russian Fed Tajikistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Table follows in the next page >> 26

36 The world fertilizer outlook Western Europe Andorra Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Monaco Netherlands Norway Portugal San Marino Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom OCEANIA Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru Niue New Caledonia New Zealand Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu 27

37 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 SUMMARY REPORT

38 World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 This report presents the world nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizer medium-term supply and demand projections for the period FAO, in collaboration with other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group dealing with fertilizer production, consumption and trade, annually provides five-year forecasts of world and regional fertilizer supply, demand and potential balance. I6895EN/1/03.17

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