Prospects for advancing SDG2 in the run-up to the WTO s eleventh ministerial conference and beyond

Transcription

1 AGRICULTURE 26 OCTOBER 2017 Beijing Prospects for advancing SDG2 in the run-up to the WTO s eleventh ministerial conference and beyond Jonathan HEPBURN, Senior Programme Manager - Agriculture, ICTSD

2 SDG2: end hunger and malnutrition by 2030 SDGs: bold new goals + targets SDG 2b: correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets Broader context: other goals also relevant (poverty, equality, gender, climate, fisheries etc) SDGs require shift from incremental approach to paradigm shift

3 WTO negotiating context: Can MC11 build on Nairobi export subsidy outcome? Marrakesh: ag reform, fisheries + services still on MC11 agenda WTO ag talks chair - support for outcomes on: domestic support, cotton, export restrictions; Also: PSH; SSM Post-MC11: process on MA, export competition, other issues?

4 Domestic support: how could a cap affect developed countries? A cap on tradedistorting support set at 10% of farm output could affect G-10 (Norway, Japan, Switzerland) BUT: a higher one (e.g. 20%) might be above current WTO AMS limits for Canada, US and EU. Source: ICTSD (2017), What Could WTO Talks on Agricultural Domestic Support Mean for Least Developed Countries?. ICTSD analysis based on data in WTO notifications.

5 Domestic support: how could a cap affect developing countries? China, India farm subsidy data show trade-distorting support well below <20% of farm output, art. 6.2 support included Source: ICTSD (2017), What Could WTO Talks on Agricultural Domestic Support Mean for Least Developed Countries?. ICTSD analysis based on data in WTO notifications.

6 Product concentration: rice, dairy, maize, wheat, pork and beef affected EU, US and Japan are among countries concentrating tradedistorting support on key products Products affected include: rice, dairy, maize, wheat, pork + beef Source: ICTSD (2017), What Could WTO Talks on Agricultural Domestic Support Mean for Least Developed Countries?. ICTSD, Geneva.

7 Public food stockholding: a permanent solution at MC11? Administered prices for wheat mostly tracked international market price until 2012 BUT: recent price falls could create trade distortions if administered prices stay high Improving data transparency could improve understanding of how schemes work, and impacts Perm. solution: revisit ref. price methodology? Exempt years if administered prices < int l prices? Source: ICTSD (2016), Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes: Options for a Permanent Solution. ICTSD, Geneva.

8 tonnes (1,000s) Cotton: still a priority issue for LDCs LDCs production, consumption, and trade in cotton 2, , Trade-distorting support for cotton is still a major issue for the LDCs. 1, ,000.00,500.00, Production Consumption Imports Exports Product-specific support for other products could also affect LDC markets: sugar; poultry; certain fruit, vegetables + nuts Source: ICTSD (2017), What Could WTO Talks on Agricultural Domestic Support Mean for Least Developed Countries?. ICTSD analysis based on OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook data.

9 Conclusion: MC11, Buenos Aires: An important opportunity to make progress on Agenda 2030, SDGs Stances of key govts on trade, multilateralism create new challenges to doing so BUT: possibility of building on MC9 + MC10 outcomes Govts could also consider building consensus on road-map for future talks on trade Buenos Aires Cityline at Night. Author: Luis Argerich. Wikimedia commons.

10 Further reading: Díaz-Bonilla, E, and Hepburn, J (2016), Trade, Food Security, and the 2030 Agenda. ICTSD, Geneva. Greenville, J (2017), Domestic Support to Agriculture and Trade: Implications for Multilateral Reform. ICTSD, Geneva. ICTSD, (2016), Evaluating Nairobi: What Does the Outcome Mean for Trade in Food and Farm Goods? ICTSD, Geneva. ICTSD, (2016), Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes: Options for a Permanent Solution. ICTSD, Geneva. ICTSD (2017), Negotiating Global Rules on Agricultural Domestic Support: Option s for the World Trade Organization s Buenos Aires Ministerial Conference. ICTSD, Geneva. ICTSD (2017), What Could WTO Talks on Agricultural Domestic Support Mean for Least Developed Countries?. ICTSD, Geneva.