Prices and Price Developments High Value Oilseeds: Sunflower, Sesame, Safflower, Niger, Linseed, Groundnuts

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1 Prices and Price Developments High Value Oilseeds: Sunflower, Sesame, Safflower, Niger, Linseed, Groundnuts The overall trend in high value oilseeds prices over the past five years has been strongly upward and marked by periods of volatility as the closely matched supply/demand balance has reacted to constrained supply followed by sharp correction. Figure 1: FAOStat Oilseeds Price Index Since 2007 prices for oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals have been trending sharply upward. The underlying trend has been increased demand from emerging economies without increased supply. In this scenario the markets have reacted to crop problems driving price volatility at all levels. Volatility makes business more difficult and creates more risk at all levels of the value chain. It also increases the need for market information and the value of stable relationships with reliable buyers or suppliers. Prices for high value oilseeds have tended to follow the general oilseeds complex and have tended to be more volatile given the almost complete absence of any price hedging mechanisms and the narrower range of supplying countries. Price information for the high value oilseeds is difficult to compile as market price reports without exact knowledge of the quality traded can be misleading and information is rarely published. The price information below utilises import value combined with reports from importers to gauge the trend. Markets are usually

2 quoted in US Dollars per tonne or US dollar cents per kg. For this reason US dollars are used in the following charts as currency conversions would distort comparisons. Sesame Seed Prices Figure 2: Indian and Sudan Natural Sesame Seed CIF Europe Figure 3: Ethiopian Sesame Seed FOB Djibouti India is the leading supplier of sesame seed to the EU market supplying a variety of quality both natural and hulled. Sudan is a lesser supplier but also supplies high quality product to the EU. This chart shows natural seed as it is less likely to be distorted by special qualities, preparations or packing. It shows a market trending upwards but also with long periods of price stability followed by high volatility. Prices for Ethiopian natural sesame seed which are FOB and therefore include all destinations show a similar pattern but there is a time lag between price movement when we compare the three origins suggesting opportunity or activity for arbitrage trading between the different origins. Figure 4: Price of Imports from Ethiopia by destination 2011 Looking at the different destinations for Ethiopian sesame seed in 2011 we find that there is a significant difference between the prices paid with Japan and the EU paying the highest prices. This is probably a result of quality considerations but indicates that buyers in some markets are prepared to pay more for better quality. Source for Sesame Seed Price Data: Trade sources, CBI Research, UNComtrade.

3 Sunflower Prices Figure 5: USA Origin Sunflower Seed Shelled CIF Rotterdam Prices for high quality Sunflower seed for use in direct consumption application have been steadily rising for a number of years without the volatility seen in the lower volume higher value oilseeds. Figure 6: EU Average Import by origin CIF Average annual import values from the top five suppliers to the EU show the rising values. USA and China origins are higher due to the quality of seeds provided which are used in bakery, snacks and confectionary. East African countries do not currently supply sunflower seed to the EU however pricing for the average of all Developing Countries exceeds the prices for crushing stock from Eastern Europe. Groundnut Prices Figure 7: Argentine 40/50 count Kernels CIF Rotterdam Groundnut prices show similar development to other sunflower seed with volatility in response to crop problems with a sharp correction following the next crop arrival. Argentina is the major supplier to the EU and 40/50 runner is the typical groundnut type used in snack food in the EU.

4 Figure 8: EU Import Annual Average Groundnut Prices by Origin EU import prices reflect the trend in the World market. The average import price is similar across origins. The average prices cover all grades on groundnut kernels. D.C. = Developing country Linseed Prices Figure 9: EU Import Annual Average Linseed Prices by origin Figure 10 CIF Rotterdam Linseed Prices EU import prices are showing a steady price rise in line with the general oilseeds complex. Although linseed prices are lower than other oilseeds in the high value group. There is not a wide spread variation between origins however there is a wide variance in the cost of moving the product to the EU market between the Eastern European sources and for example shipping from Ethiopia. Recent prices do not further volatility from the 2011 import figures. Generally the Linseed price appears to be lower value but less volatile than other oilseeds particularly when those products have been destined for the Asian market. Source Oil World

5 Niger Seed Figure 11: EU Niger Seed Import Prices EU Import prices for Niger Seed are on average the lowest of the high value oilseeds. Prices are less volatile with the exception of the 2008 season which was marked by crop problems. Market information on the narrowly focussed and traded Niger seed market is scarce the prices are a combination of export levels reported in India and Ethiopia. It is difficult to assess actual values from official figures with complete confidence as Niger Seed trade is grouped with other miscellaneous seeds. There appears to be a consistent premium paid in Europe for the Ethiopian origin which may be a result of quality considerations combined with harvest timing. The EU average export prices in line with This survey was compiled for CBI by James Fitzpatrick and Rene De Baaij Published: Disclaimer CBI market information tools: