Developing Socio-Economic Scenarios for India

Transcription

1 Developing Socio-Economic Scenarios for India Purnamita Dasgupta Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi National Workshop 1

2 Objectives To develop alternative socio-economic scenarios that take into consideration a sustainable development objective for India To develop a conceptual frame for indicative economic costs of policies for adaptation to climate change, specific focus on vulnerable groups. To illustrate the methodology with detailed studies, focusing on agriculture as a key sector 2

3 Methodology Key markers of socio-economic vulnerability and adaptive capacity were identified These include Geographical (inter-state variation and coastal location), Demographic (inter-state population distribution) and Coping vulnerability (income differentials and access to basic facilities) Socio-Economic variables impacting each of the above (through either an increase/decrease in vulnerability) are then interacted in a dynamic simulation model Model provides: (a) alternative development pathways through short to medium term projections over (b) varying time scales (c) key parameters which can be influenced to achieve desirable outcomes for decreasing vulnerability. 3

4 Conceptual Frame Economy and Agriculture Module Gross Domestic Product Poverty Reduction Sectoral Gross Domestic Product Food security Unemployment Reduction Access to Basic Services Share of Agriculture Sector Food grain Production 4

5 Conceptual Frame: Dynamic Simulation of Food grain Production Area under Food grain Food Production Profitability Technology Climatic Factors Irrigation Other Socio-Economic Factor Share of Primary Sector Education Infrastructure Population Per Capita Production 5

6 <Time> Gross Domestic Product Poverty Reduction Food Security, Unemployment Reduction, Acess to Basic Services <Time> Proportion of land irrigated in2 Yield (irrigated) Sectoral Gross Domestic Product Area under Foodgrain non-irrigated area foodgrain Share of Agriculture Sector food production area change due to change in profitability irrigated area food grain Yield (nonirrigated) factor change in area foodgrain Per capita production change in relative profitability 6 <Time> Po

7 Emerging Scenarios Time scale from current time period till 2030 Reference scenario has current expectations and assumptions of structural stability, and, concerns for vulnerability without climate change impacts results available Optimistic Scenario improves on reference with rapid technological progress and adaptive strategies results available Longer term Scenario Simulation in progress Indicative Costs framework developed; ongoing work 7

8 Socio-Economic Scenarios for the Indian Economy, 2030 Variable Reference Scenario Optimistic Scenario GDP growth rate ( ) 7 % 8 % Unemployment Rate 1% 1% Income Poverty (Percentage BPL) 5% 5% Sectoral Shares in GDP: Primary: (Secondary + Tertiary) 0.15: :0.90 Per capita Food Grain Production 182 kgs 198 kgs Urbanisation Access to basic amenities 100% 100% 8

9 Per Capita Foodgrain Production optimistic scenario reference scenario

10 Uncertainty Issues TFP, technological progress Limiting cap values : land availability, irrigation potential, population, relative international prices Turning points thresholds : where these lie and extent of certainty of occurrence Quality Assurance Face Validity through repeated iterations expected and consistent signs and directions of flows Historical behaviour tests Reality checks with extreme values for parameters 10

11 Response Levels Adaptation Framework Variables determining potential for adaptation: education, technological development Variables impacted by the potential: e.g. water use efficiency Drivers of Change Policies - State; Initiative Public or Private or both Agency State as Enabler; Individual and Civil society diffusion, uptake, funding 11

12 Adaptation Framework Costs Knowledge Advancement Costs : Awareness and Media, R & D, Institutional Development Sustainability Transition Costs: building a climate resilient society - most sectoral, context specific approaches/estimates capture these (on track with developmental goals) e.g.: R & D to installation of early warning systems; from institutional development to crop insurance at incremental premiums for climate change 12

13 Some Conceptual Concerns Developmental goals well defined for short term (e.g. MDGs); taken care of in setting the time frames and targets (e.g. literacy, poverty, access to basic amenities) Adaptation Costs in short run cover for derailment of the economy from the desired time path Currently available CC data for ; socio-economic modeling limitations beyond Therefore, adopt a Systems Equilibrium approach ---- Moving from last three decades till , to a future 30 year period: 2071 to Advantage CC data available, disadvantages too much uncertainty to risk putting one number to it, even for the economist!!! For the present, See Adaptation costs in terms of directions of change. Illustrate for food grain production. 13

14 Food grain prod

15 Foodgrain prod (opt.)

16 Foodgrain prod. 2071,

17 Relative Change in foodgrain production State Name 2030 relative to relative to 2030 Andhra Pradesh Gujrat Haryana Karnataka Madhaya Pradesh Maharastra Punjab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh West Bengal India relative to

18 Indicative Transition & Knowledge Costs Adaptation to changing water availability for agriculture in vulnerable areas Costs of weather insurance for typical rainfed agriculture private (esp. large and medium); social / government (small and marginal) Cost of water saving technology (drip and sprinkler irrigation) mostly private costing Cost of R & D in low water using crops social/ government cost Cost of institutional development and resilience build up for first two both private and public; not so for last. Rather, private agent may have incentive to move into different land use. 18

19 Adaptation Costs Various definitions and conceptual inconsistencies exist in adaptation literature and available estimates Anticipated costs which maybe incurred by public and private agents to plan for a change foreseen with reasonable accuracy Critical precision of extent and probability of climate change impacts; incremental attributable to CC; agency which bears the cost. Adaptation Funding for apportioning of costs between 2010 and 2100 NREGA, BPL 19

20 % NREGA employment, % BPL

21 21