CEMENT. November 2010
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1 CEMENT November 2010
2 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 2
3 ADVANTAGE INDIA Advantage India India is the second-largest cement producer in the world, with an installed capacity of about 236 million tonnes (MT) in Between and , domestic sales and realisation of cement has been estimated to have grown at a CAGR of 18.4 per cent and 10.6 per cent, respectively. Industry performance indicators on an incline Secondlargest cement producer in the world Advantage India Substantial capacity expansion The sector is expected to add an additional capacity of 92.3 MT by As a result, the industry will have a total installed capacity of MT by March The industry has witnessed continuous modernisation and adoption of new technologies. Almost 93 per cent of the total capacity is based on ecofriendly dry process technology. Modern and eco-friendly technology Increasing interest from foreign players Employment generation The cement industry employed 140,000 people in Total FDI in the cement sector between April 2000 and August 2010 stood at US$ 1.9 billion. Sources: Industry, Cement Manufacturers Association of India website, accessed 10 November 2010; IAS, 10 November 2010, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Fact Sheet on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion website, accessed 10 November
4 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 4
5 MARKET OVERVIEW Market overview The installed capacity in the Indian cement market was 236 MT in All-India cement installed capacity growth (in MT) Installed capacity has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8 per cent between and The production of cement in was MT The turnover of the cement industry has been estimated at US$ 15.7 billion in The Cement Manufacturers Association of India (CMA) estimates the industry manpower at about 140,000 as on 31 March Cement players in India produce different types of cement, based on different compositions such as ordinary portland, portland pozzolana, portland blast furnace slag cement, white cement and specialised cement All India cement capacity growth Sources: CMIE, Cement Manufacturers Association; Ernst & Young analysis 5
6 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segments (1/2) Cement industry East West Central North South The cement industry in India can be divided into five geographical zones of India north, south, east, west and central based on localised variations in the consumer profile and supply-demand scenario. 6
7 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segments (2/2) The south zone is the largest market, with the highest installed capacity of 67 MT, followed by the north zone with about 48 MT, in Regional share of installed capacity (2009) 33% 23% 16% North West Central East South 14% 14% Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis 7
8 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segment North Key markets in northern India include the states of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and the National Capital Region (NCR). Demand in this region is being driven by growth in infrastructure, and residential and commercial construction. In the past few years, demand has been fuelled further by the metro project in Delhi NCR. Cement consumption north zone (in MT) Cement production north zone (in MT) Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 8
9 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segment West The states of Maharashtra and Gujarat are the key markets in this region. Over the past few years, growth in housing and commercial real estate has augmented the demand for cement in this region. The western region also exports cement to countries in the Middle East. Cement consumption west zone (in MT) Cement production west zone (in MT) Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 9
10 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segment Central The state of Uttar Pradesh is the key market in this region. The demand for cement in this region has primarily grown due to an increase in the number of housing and infrastructure projects. Cement consumption central zone (in MT) Cement production central zone (in MT) Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 10
11 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segment East The key markets in the east are the states of West Bengal, Orissa and Bihar. Growth in housing and industrial activity are primarily driving demand for cement in this region. Cement consumption east zone (in MT) Cement production east zone (in MT) Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 11
12 MARKET OVERVIEW Market segment South Key markets in the southern region are the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The south zone has witnessed increased capacity in last few years due to its rich limestone reserves. Growth in the real estate market in the region, coupled with the development of key infrastructure projects such as airport and metro rail, has resulted in increased demand for cement in this region Cement consumption south zone (in MT) Cement production south zone (in MT) Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 12
13 MARKET OVERVIEW Growth drivers Housing Infrastructure Commercial real estate The housing segment accounts for a major portion of the total domestic demand for cement in India. According to the Eleventh Five Year Plan ( ), housing demand is estimated to increase from more than 24 million units in 2007 to more than 26 million units at the end of the Plan period. Growing urbanisation, an increasing number of households and higher employment are primarily driving the demand for housing. The Government of India (GoI) initiatives are expected to provide impetus to construction activity in rural and semi-urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects. The GoI is strongly focusing on infrastructure development to boost the growth in the economy. It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to US$ 1 trillion in the Twelfth Five Year Plan ( ), as compared with US$ 514 billion under the Eleventh Five Year Plan ( ). Infrastructure projects such as the Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs) as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity. The GoI intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and further reduce its transportation costs. The demand for commercial real estate (CRE) segments, comprising retail space, office space and hotels, as well as civic facilities including hospitals, multiplexes and schools, has been on the rise due to growth in economy. The demand for office space in India is being driven by the increasing multinational companies and the growth of the services sector. Strong growth in tourism, including both business and leisure travel, has increased the construction of hotels in the country. With the rise in population and change in consumer behavior demand for civic facilitates has been witnessing a trajectory growth. 13
14 MARKET OVERVIEW Key trends Changing technological profile Technological profile of the cement industry has changed significantly in the last two decades as a result of the increased adoption of energy efficient technologies and processes. The Indian cement industry has become a forerunner in energy-efficient cement manufacturing in the world with some of the plants operating at the lowest energy consumption levels. Notably, about 93 per cent of the total capacity is based on eco-friendly dry process technology. Volatile cement prices Cement prices have witnessed an upward trend across regions over the past few years due to a constricted supply scenario and an increase in input costs. However, prices are expected to stabilise or decline in the near future, as supply rises as a result of capacity expansions and players focus on captive power generation to reduce input costs. Sources: CMIE; Ernst & Young analysis. 14
15 MARKET OVERVIEW Key players The Indian cement industry comprises 148 large and around 365 mini cement plants, including public sector units. Large producers contribute about 95 per cent to the installed capacity, while mini plants account for the rest. Industry comprises a few large players with a pan-india presence as well as several regional and stand-alone players. There are primarily two groups with pan-india presence Holcim Group (comprising ACC and Ambuja Cements) and Aditya Birla Group (including Grasim Industries, UltraTech and Century Textiles). 46% Market share (production) of key players (2009) 5% 11% 38% Aditya Birla Group India Cement Group Holcim (F) Group Jaiprakash Group Shree Cement, India Cement, Lafarge, Jaypee Group and Binani are regionally focused players. Holcim Group and Aditya Birla Group have emerged as the largest players in the Indian cement industry, with a market share of 46 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, in Sources: CMIE, Ernst & Young analysis; Cement Manufacturers Association of India website, accessed 10 November
16 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 16
17 INVESTMENTS Investments Between April 2000 and August 2010 total FDI in the cement sector was US$ 1.9 billion. Most cement companies have announced expansion plans for , which is expected to result in a fresh capacity of more than 40 MT in Some new cement projects in the pipeline expected to be completed by March 2013 include: Company Project Investment (US$ million) Capacity (MT) ABG Cement Ltd Cement plant at Kutch, Gujarat Jaiprakash Associates My Homes Inds Ltd Clinker and cement plant in Jaggayyapeta, Krishna, Andhra Pradesh Cement project in Guntur, Andhra Pradesh Cosmos cement Ltd Jaintia hills green field cement projects J K Cement Ltd Mangrol cement expansion project Sources: CMIE; Fact Sheet on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from August 1991 to August 2010, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion. 17
18 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 18
19 POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Policy and regulatory framework (1/2) Regulatory scenario The Ministry of Mines regulates the mining sector, while the states own the minerals sector in their respective territories in India FDI of up to 100 per cent is allowed in the mining sector under the automatic route for cement production. National Mineral Policy (NMP) 2008 The NMP aims to achieve the twin goals of large-scale prospecting with optimal mining and attracting investments with the latest technology. To implement comprehensive reforms stated in the NMP, the GoI has proposed a new legislation and amended the existing Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act. This legislation is expected to enhance the country s regulatory environment by making it simple and transparent. 19
20 POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Policy and regulatory framework (2/2) The impact of the Union Budget Excise duty has been increased by 2 per cent. A budget allocation of US$ billion has been made for India s infrastructure development. Heightened focus on railways, housing, urban infrastructure and continued easy financing of the projects is expected to give impetus to the construction sector. Further, the additional deduction available for investment in long-term infrastructure bonds for individuals is expected to speed up the execution of infrastructure projects. Sources: Ministry of Mines, Government of India, Doing Business in India, 2010, Ernst & Young report; India Budget, 2010, Ernst & Young. 20
21 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 21
22 OPPORTUNITIES Opportunities The Indian cement industry has been on a high-growth trajectory led by buoyancy in sectors such as real estate, infrastructure and construction. Increased government focus on infrastructure development The GoI plans to increase its investment in infrastructure to US$ 1 trillion in the Twelfth Five Year Plan ( ) as compared with US$ 514 billion expected to be spent on infrastructure development under the Eleventh Five Year Plan ( ). Union budget plans a total outlay of US$ 6.4 billion on rural housing, roads and bridges. Formal approval has been granted to 577 SEZ proposals and 363 have already been notified as SEZs, as of August Infrastructure projects such as the dedicated freight corridors (DFC), upgraded and new airports and ports are expected to enhance the scale of economic activity, leading to a substantial increase in demand. Increased demand for housing segment According to the Eleventh Five Year Plan ( ), there is an increasing demand for housing in the country, especially in the economically weaker section (EWS)/low-income group (LIG). The housing segment accounts for major proportion of the total domestic demand for cement in India. Given the intense shortage of housing in the country, this segment has been the primary demand driver for the industry. Sources: Industry, Cement Manufacturers Association of India website, accessed 11 November 2010 Eleventh Five-year plan ( ), Planning commission, Government of India website, accessed 11 November 2010 Fact sheet, Special economic zones in India website, accessed 10 November 2010 Economic Survey , Union Budget & Economic Survey Website, accessed 10 November Industry overview, Confederation of Real Estate Developers Associations of India website, 10 November
23 OPPORTUNITIES Opportunities Increase in development activity in commercial real estate (CRE) and other segments The demand for office space in India is being driven by the influx of multinational companies and the growth of the services sector, especially the IT-BPO industry. Progressive liberalisation and easing of FDI norms in various sectors paved the way for growth in FDI, which led to a burgeoning demand for office space from MNCs and other foreign investors. Growth in organised retailing and the entry of international retailers into India has fuelled the demand for good quality mall space. Strong growth in tourism, including both business and leisure travel, has increased the construction of hotels in the country. The real estate sector contributes 5 per cent to India s GDP and is expected to reach a size of US$ 180 billion by Upcoming industrial clusters and infrastructure development in emerging tier-ii and tier-iii cities are also likely to fuel demand in the sector. The growing population and increased urbanisation in the country has increased the need for more civil facilities. Huge potential for growth to increase per capita consumption of cement Though India is the second-largest producer and consumer of cement in the world, there is a significant potential to increase the per capita consumption of cement in the country in comparison to other countries. The per capita consumption of cement in India is 143 kg, as compared with other countries such as China (1,014 kg) and Japan (524 kg), which indicates significant potential for growth. Sources: Industry, Cement Manufacturers Association of India website, accessed 11 November 2010 Industry overview, Confederation of Real Estate Developers Associations of India website, 12 August 2010 Fact Sheet on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion website, accessed 10 November
24 CEMENT November 2010 Contents Advantage India Market overview Investments Policy and regulatory framework Opportunities Industry associations 24
25 INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS Industry associations (1/2) Cement Manufacturers' Association CMA Tower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA Uttar Pradesh, India Phone: , , Fax: Website: National Council for Cement and Building Materials 34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh Haryana, India Phone: /52/53/54/55/56; Fax : ; nccbm@vsnl.com; info@ncbindia.com Website: 25
26 INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS Industry associations (2/2) Indian Concrete Institute Ocean Crest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai Phone: Fax: Website: 26
27 NOTE Note Wherever applicable, numbers in the report have been rounded off to the nearest whole number. Conversion rate used: US$ 1= INR 48 27
28 CEMENT November 2010 DISCLAIMER India Brand Equity Foundation ( IBEF ) engaged Ernst & Young Pvt Ltd to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by Ernst & Young in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Ernst & Young and IBEF s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Ernst & Young and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Ernst & Young nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation. 28
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