Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

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1 Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

2 Current Situation

3 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Georgia, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg

4 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Georgia, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/12/13

5 $ Per Cwt. 155 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly 145 Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

6 Factors Impacting Cattle Markets and Profitability Economy (consumer demand). Crop prices Feeder cattle demand Sector profitability Big picture items

7 Beef and Feeder Cattle Demand Beef Demand Consumers income Prices of competing meats Exports Feeder Cattle Demand Fed cattle profits Price of fed cattle Price of corn Available capital Stocker cattle profits Price of feeder cattle Cost of grazing & feed

8 BEEF DEMAND

9 Dollars PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly Current Dollar 2005 Dollar Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 05/30/13

10 QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2009) Change from Previous Quarter Percent Change Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 12/06/13

11 $ Per Cwt SOUTHERN PLAINS CALF PRICES vs TEXAS CORN PRICES Weekly $ Per Bu lb Steer Texas Corn Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 02/05/14

12 Mil bu Mill. Of Bushels 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8%13.9% 13.1% 13.7% 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 2004/ / / / /13 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ending Stocks Production Domestic Use and Exports Stocks:Use Data Source: USDA, WASDE. Chart prepared by Dr. Nathan Smith, UGA

13 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs. Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-62 02/24/14 Data Source: USDA-AMS

14 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly $ Per Cwt Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-68 02/24/14 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

15 PRIMAL LOIN VALUE Monthly $/Cwt Prime Branded Choice Select Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Ungraded Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

16 PRIMAL CHUCK VALUE Monthly $/Cwt Prime Branded Choice Select Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Ungraded Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

17 PRIMAL ROUND VALUE Monthly $/Cwt Prime Branded Choice Select Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Ungraded Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

18 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-06 01/29/13

19

20 MAJOR U S BEEF EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual Mil. Pounds Avg. 2007/ Japan Canada Mexico Korea Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-18 02/07/14 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

21 CATTLE AND BEEF SUPPLIES

22 BEEF COWS THAT CALVED JANUARY 1, 2014 (1000 Head) to to to to 3911 VT 12 NH 3 MA 6 RI 2 CT 4 NJ 8 DE 3 MD U.S. Total: Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 02/03/14

23 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014 (1000 Head) to to -1-1 to 3 3 to 87 VT 0 NH -1 MA -1 RI 0 CT -2 NJ -1 DE -1 MD -3-1 U.S. Total: -255 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 02/03/14

24 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2005 TO JANUARY 2014 (1000 Head) to to to -1-1 to 75 VT 2 NH -1 MA -1 RI 0 CT -3 NJ -2 DE -1 MD U.S. Total: Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 02/03/14

25 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 BEEF COW FACTORY U.S., Annual Beef cows down mil Beef replacement heifers up mil Total beef cow factory down 0.5 % 40 Replacement Heifers Beef Cows

26 Meat supplies were virtually unchanged for two years in a row Projected 2014 Forecast 13 vs vs 13 Commodity BILLION POUNDS PERCENT CHANGE Beef % -5.76% Pork % 1.61% Total Red Meat* % -2.12% Broilers % 2.96% Total Poultry** % 2.76% Total Red Meat & Poultry % 0.25% Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2014 Report

27 Past and Projected Prices $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $ SE 500# steer SE 750# steer Choice fed steer SE Slaughter cow Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

28 Projected Beef Cattle Profits in 2014 Cow-calf Stockers Finishing Graphics source: CattleFax: Long-term Outlook.

29

30 Big Picture Items Antibiotics GMOs Humane treatment of animals

31 Beef Cattle Summary For 2014 expect lower production Higher prices Higher profits More heifer retention

32 Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

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