Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections

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1 Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections Midwest Agriculture s Ties to the Global Economy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 28, 217 Chicago Jim Hansen, Ph.D. USDA, Economic Research Service Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and not USDA or Economic Research Service. Projections are from the United States Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, Long-term Projections Report, OCE-217-1, February 217.

2 Presentation Outline Baseline process and model type Global macroeconomics, population, and exchange rates International trade - grains, soybeans, wheat and livestock Conclusion

3 USDA s Agricultural Projections 1-year projection of major commodities - Supply, demand, trade, and prices. - Based on November 216 market conditions. Released Feb 217 Assumptions: - Continuation of current U.S. law and international trade agreements - Population growth slows, strongest in developing countries - Macroeconomic growth strongest in emerging markets Modeling system: dynamic partial equilibrium trade - 4 countries/regions, 24 commodity markets - Equilibrates: (Supply = Demand) & (Imports = Exports) Solves for prices and trade, clear world and country markets - Excel and Fortran programs, elasticity based - policy instruments in Excel Analysts Judgment: Model + Delphi approach - Country modelers, Commodity analyst (ERS, WOAB, FAS, NASS, ) - Country specialist, Weather and geographic specialists Process: Macro, modelers, analysts meetings, trade-commodity spec, calibrate

4 Changes in Food Consumption: Greater consumption of: - Fruits & Vegetables - Vegetable Oils - Processed Cereal Products - Meats & Dairy Products (emerging markets) Feed Demand Increases Import demand for Feed grains Less consumption of: - Staple grains - rice in Asia, corn in Indonesia and Mexico - Low-quality grain varieties and switching to high-quality (high-quality varieties may lower yields) - Roots & tubers

5 Global Structural Changes Shifting Economic Power Emerging Markets - Increasing per capita incomes Evolving Demographics: - Declining population growth rates, - Urbanization, - Changing age structure, younger populations Infrastructure development in emerging markets - Transportation, roads, (also increasing congestion) - Market integration Food market development - Increased access to larger variety of food, retail outlets

6 Macro Assumptions

7 1 8 GDP Growth for Major Regions: Developing Economies Exhibit Strongest Growth Percent South Asia 6.8% China 5% Africa Latin America Developed Countries US 2.1% EU 1.6% Japan.9 % Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

8 4 Population Growth Rates Decline (%) Regional 1 Year Averages, 3 Decades and Projection Percent Projection Africa Middle East Latin America Asia United States Developing World Developed 1/ Based on population projections from the Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce. Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

9 Population Growth And Urbanization In 5 Southeast Asian Countries Aggregate Total Population Urban Population Rural Population Source: UN-FAO, FAOSTAT,

10 U.S. Agricultural Trade-Weighted Dollar Exchange Rate Projected to Slightly Depreciate 1/ 14 Index values, 21=1 Dollar appreciates: U.S. commodities more expensive on international market Dollar depreciates: U.S. commodities less expensive on international market, therefore more competitive / Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights. Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

11 International Trade:

12 Percent U.S. Export Share in World Market: Corn 1% 8% Corn 6% 4% 2% % Corn Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

13 Percent U.S. Export Share in World Market: Soybeans and Wheat 1% 8% 6% Soybeans 4% 2% Wheat % Soybeans Wheat Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

14 Million metric tons Global Pork and Poultry Production From 1971 to 216 Poultry increases by 98 mmt, 5.3% per year Pork increases by 31 mmt, 1.4% per year Pork Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

15 Global Corn Exports (mmt) 18 Million metric tons United States Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

16 Global Corn Imports (mmt) 18 Million metric tons NAFTA countries 2 Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

17 5 Southeast Asia: Corn, Soybeans & Meal Imports (Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia & Malaysia) Million metric tons Soybeans Corn Soybean meal Soymeal Corn Soybeans Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

18 Million metric tons Global Soybean Production Brazil Argentina Other 1 5 United States China (below) Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

19 2 Million metric tons Global Soybean Exports Other Brazil United States Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

20 Million metric tons Global Soybean Imports China Other N. Africa & Middle East Latin America East Asia EU China EU Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

21 Million metric tons Global Soybean Meal Feed Demand: By Regions, 5 Years of Growth Indicator of 1. Growing global meat demand, increasing incomes 2. Increasing global pork and poultry production 3. Changing global feed rations, a decrease in backyard production 1 China 5 EU Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan (below) North America Source: USDA FAS PS&D Data, 217.

22 Greater Detail - Soybean Meal Feed Demand: By Regions, 5 Years of Growth Million metric tons 18 Global minus EU, North America, and East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Middle East South Asia 4 2 China Source: USDA FAS PS&D Data, 217.

23 Million metric tons Greater Detail - Soybean Meal Feed Demand: By Regions, 5 Years of Growth Global minus EU, North America, all East Asia Source: USDA FAS PS&D Data, 217. Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Middle East South Asia

24 Global Soybean Meal Exports 9 Million metric tons Argentina 4 3 Brazil 2 Other 1 US Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

25 Million metric tons Global Soybean Meal Imports North Africa & Mid-East European Union/ / Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ EU-28 excludes intra-trade after 22, EU-15 intra-trade before 23, Slovenia before Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

26 Million metric tons Global Soybean Oil Imports Other EU, FSU, & OE China India Other Asia N. Africa & Middle East Latin America Latin America / European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Asia excluding India and China. Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

27 Million metric tons Global Wheat Imports / Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Excludes intra-eu trade. Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217. Egypt NAFTA Latin America EU/2, FSU & OE/1 East Asia

28 U.S. Meat Exports Million metric tons (216 top 5 U.S. export markets) Poultry: Mexico, HK, Canada, Cuba, Taiwan Pork: Mexico, Japan, China, Canada, HK Beef: Japan, Mex, SKorea, Canada, HK Poultry Pork 1 Beef Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

29 12 Million metric tons Poultry Imports (Major Regions and Selected Countries) Japan, South Korea and Taiwan China & HongKong Russia European Union/ / EU-28 excludes intra-trade after 22, EU-15 intra-trade before 23, Slovenia before Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

30 16 Million metric tons Poultry Exports (Major Regions and Selected Countries) European Union/ / EU-28 excludes intra-trade after 22, EU-15 intra-trade before 23, Slovenia before Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 226, February 217.

31 Conclusions and Summary: Continued global trade growth in agriculture commodities. Assumed normal weather conditions. There are no significant increases in real world commodity prices. Prices are flat in early years. Strong income and population growth in many developing countries and urbanization lead to increased import demand for grains, soybeans and High Value Products. Countries have large income elasticities for food, elastic. Trade to remain very competitive -- Expanding production potential in Brazil & Argentina, FSU, India and EU Mature markets / developed economies are not expanding imports, but maintain stable consumption patterns, such as East Asia (Japan, S Korea, Taiwan) and EU United States Midwest is major producer of corn, soybeans and wheat, will be competitive in global markets, maintain and increase exports, but market share still declines. Uncertainty - Energy prices and costs of agriculture production - Policy changes by importers and exporters - Disease impacts, especially avian influenza - Weather impacts, increasing volatility in weather patterns

32 USDA Agricultural Projections to 226 Search: USDA ERS Agriculture Projection Baseline Search: USDA ERS International Baseline Data (This is detail projection data by country, complete balance sheets) United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service USDA-ERS

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