AProCA. Pan-African Workshop
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1 AProCA Pan-African Workshop Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to the fall in international prices Savana Hotel, Saly, Senegal, the 6 th and 7 th May 2005 Forum organised by the African Cotton Association, the Association of African Cotton Producers, Seatini and Enda Prospectives Dialogues Politiques. With the support of Oxfam International and DFID Second Session: «The Sectoral Initiative in favour of Cotton: possible alliances and opportunities Communication on: King Cotton: Abdicate or Subjugate? A Presentation on the Political Economy of American Cotton and Prospects for a Pro-Development Policy Reform Gawain KRIPKE, Senior Policy Advisor, Oxfam America
2 Introduction: When Brazil and four West African cotton producing countries challenged the United States to reduce the trade distortions caused by US government subsidies, they could hardly expect the massive media and political wave that followed. In launching a dispute under WTO legal rules, Brazil essentially charged that the USA has cheated on international commitments. In submitting a negotiating position as part of the Doha Round, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali (collectively known as the cotton four or C4), made a powerful moral argument and enlightened the world to the poverty impacts of US farm subsidies. However, in cotton, Brazil and the C4 chose one of the most politically powerful adversaries in the USA. Few industries are as well organized, as influential, or as entrenched as cotton in the United States. It is, perhaps, instructive to remember that cotton played a large role in the deepest political crisis of American history: the American Civil War ( ). While the war was fought over slavery, slavery itself was largely a function of the cotton economy in southern American states. The plantation aristocracy responded to the economic challenge of anti-slavery movement with war. In the time of the American Civil War, the interests of the cotton growers were separated from the interests of cotton mills and the textile industry, both politically and geographically. Cotton was grown in southern states, but milled and woven in northern states and in England. Since then, these interests have combined into an integrated political association called the National Cotton Council. Wars are no longer fought over cotton in America, but cotton still holds a deep and sometimes emotional influence over American politics. This influence is manifested in many ways, most notably in massive subsidies for the 25,000 American cotton producers. The influence also can be observed in large subsidies for cotton processors and exporters. Finally, the American cotton industry wields a heavy hand in US trade policy, enforcing a highly protectionist tariff and rules-of-origin regime designed to benefit American cotton and American textile producers. As Brazil and the C4 have now demonstrated, subsidizing American cotton in this way is causing poverty around the world and creating political frictions for the USA. The status quo is not sustainable. However, the question whether a real reform is possible, or only a whitewash which leaves intact the existing inequities is very much undecided. A Picture of American Cotton: Harvesting Subsidies The USA is the second largest cotton producer after China. The USA produces approximately fifteen million (15,000,000) bales, or just over seven billion (7,000,000,000) pounds, of cotton per year. This is approximately 20 percent of global production. US farmers have increased both cotton acreage due to the unattractiveness of other competing crops thanks to slumping prices, as well as the attractiveness of cotton due to benefits of cotton subsidies. While acreage has increased, productivity per acre has also increased due to technological advances including new seed varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and machinery. The total value of the cotton crop is approximately $4.6 billion, while export sales averaged $2.1 billion from 1997 to Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 2
3 The vast majority of cotton is produced in five areas in the Cotton Belt across the southern tier of the United States. These clusters include the Texas High Plains, the Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana Delta, the San Joaquin Valley in California, Central Arizona and Southern Georgia. Texas has the most cotton farms (11,237 or 32% of all US farms) as well the greatest cotton production (4.5 million bales or about 1/3 of all cotton). Mississippi is second, with Georgia and California close behind. While the USA produces a lot of cotton, there are relatively few farmers involved. In 2002, fewer than 25,000 farms produced cotton. The number of cotton farms has steadily declined over 30 years and average farm size has doubled since the 1980s.. While the USA is number two in cotton production, it is number one in cotton exports, making up 40% of global exports. Since 2001, an average of 56 % of US cotton production is exported each year. The proportion of cotton exported has grown in recent years as the US cotton processing industry milling and textile industry declines. Thirty percent of the world's consumption of cotton fiber crosses international borders before processing, a larger share than for wheat, corn, soybeans, or rice. Thousands of fa rm C oncentration in cotton farm ing Y ears Cotton exports are dominated by a few private trading companies: Allenberg Cotton, Cargill Cotton, and Dunavant Enterprises, share 85-90% of the international cotton trade market (Morris 1999). In the US, cottonseed milling is dominated by the Anderson Clayton Company, while cottonseed sales are dominated by Monsanto, with 87% of cottonseed sales (MacDonald and Denbaly 2000). Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 3
4 US Cotton Production, Use, and Exports In the USA, cotton has gained the nickname, poverty weed as a consequence of its high cost of production and low market price. As the prices of fertilizers, chemicals and recently, energy, have increased, the costs of producing cotton rose across the US throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Cash receipts for cotton have not kept pace with the cost of production with the exception of good years in 1994 and Government payments make up the difference (Meyer and MacDonald 2001:7). Some economists now believe that cotton farmers are likely to become increasingly dependent on government payments in the future (Richardson et al. 2001). On average, the lack of good returns relative to total costs means that five out of five of representative cotton farms in the USA are classified as poor or marginal, according to Texas A&M research. Even the largest farms, with the highest rates of return are marginal. The conventional wisdom is that an American cotton farm must be 500 acres at a minimum to be economically viable, due the need for economies of scale to justify high capital costs and machinery investments the US production model uses. Harvesting Subsidies: Economic viability for US cotton producers, processors, and exporters relies on government subsidies. U.S. cotton production and export subsidies provide comprehensive support for producers. US farmers with a history of cotton production are eligible for direct and countercyclical payments. On their actual production, farmers may utilize marketing loans and loan deficiency payments. Protection against low yields is available through subsidized crop Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 4
5 insurance, and in some years the US Congress has approved additional disaster payments. When U.S. market prices rise, and there is a risk that competitors might capture more of the world export market and even deliver to U.S. yarn and fabric mills, so-called Step 2 user payments are made to US cotton exporters and mills if they purchase US cotton. For producers, three subsidy programs form the core support: direct payments, countercyclical payments and marketing assistance loans. Direct payments are decoupled from production and based on historical payments [Note: the Brazil WTO case successfully argued that direct payments are not fully decoupled and will need reform to qualify as decoupled payments.] Countercyclical payments are also based on historic production (rather than current production), and are made to producers if the price of cotton falls below $0.72 per pound. Marketing assistance loans are essentially price guarantees ($0.52 per pound) made to producers, in which the government agrees to pay a determined price if producers can not find buyers. These programs reflect contradictory intentions from the 1996 and 2002 Farm Bills, which, in turn reflect the fact that commodity prices including cotton, were much lower in 2002 than in All of the subsidy programs have the effect of reducing risk, and, generally, increasing US cotton production. 1 1 NOTE: In some US regions, including California, Arizona, and Texas, irrigated water is provides at subsidized rates. In effect, this is a large production subsidy for many cotton producers. Water subsidies are note discussed in detail here. Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 5
6 For US cotton processors and exporters, other government subsidies provide assistance. The Step-2 program makes payments to exporters and US mill users to compensate for purchasing higher-priced US cotton. Another subsidy programs supports exports of US cotton by providing favorable credit under the export credit guarantee program. From 1991 through 2003 farm subsidies for cotton production have cost $1.76 billion per year, on average. This is the annual equivalent of $0.21 per pound of US production. When the $0.21 per pound average farm subsidy is added to the $0.57 per pound average market price, US producers made an average of $0.78 per pound from 1991 through This level of revenue is more than enough to cover average variable cash costs of $0.50/lb., and just enough to cover average total economic costs of $0.78/lb. Variable cash costs of some of the competing cotton exporting nations are about half those of the United States. Exercising Influence: While US cotton production is large by global standards, cotton is a modest player by US economic standards. Calendar year 2003 estimated cash receipts for lint and seed at $5.5 billion, accounting for 5.1% of estimated total receipts from all U.S. crops ($106.7 billion) and 2.5% of total crop and livestock receipts ($212.4 billion). Other leading crops were corn (71.1 million acres, and $18.7 billion in receipts), soybeans (72.3 million acres, and $15.7 billion in receipts), wheat (52.8 million acres, and $6.8 billion in receipts), and rice (3.0 million acres, and $1.1 billion in receipts). More broadly, agricultural production itself is marginally important to the US economy, constituting about 2% of the economy and about 2% of the workforce. But agriculture, and cotton in particular, project a disproportionate level of influence on US politics. This is partly an historical legacy, but also reflects raw politics. Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 6
7 A casual observation of the cotton map and the US Congress will demonstrate why cotton wields undue power. Of the 18 most powerful Congressional leaders (out of 545), 5 come from cotton growing regions or states. 2 This is actually a significant reduction since 2003 when 8 came from cotton districts. Also notable is that President Bush comes from Texas, the largest cotton-producing state. 2 House and Senate leadership, Chair and ranking for Ways & Means, Finance, Appropriations, and Agriculture Committees. Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 7
8 Election Map of USA: Red= Bush, Blue= Kerry The strong political representation fro cotton explains the large subsidies for cotton production. The US cotton industry is primarily represented by the National Cotton Council (NCC), a private organization that advocates for the entire cotton industry including the producers, ginners, warehousers, merchants, cottonseed, cooperatives, and manufacturers. In addition, the National Cotton Council is affiliated with separate organizations that promote increased cotton consumption through advertising and public relations programs. The NCC is also affliated with the Cotton Council International which promotes consumption of US cotton by foreign buyers. The NCC seeks to resolve the diverse interests of cotton and settle disagreements internally, rather than expose the public or political leaders to any conflict. The NCC closely consults with US government agencies particularly with the US Trade Representatives (USTR) office in relation to the WTO cotton dispute and the C4 negotiations. The NCC sponsored academic research to debunk the basis of the Brazilian WTO case. On the C4 negotiation, the NCC has recognized the political problem and has sought to assist USTR in negotiations. For example, the NCC has promoted several efforts to exchange information with producers and officials in West Africa. In July 2004, the NCC hosted agriculture and commerce ministers from Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali for a weeklong tour of U.S. cotton production, processing, marketing and research facilities. In addition, NCC officials have traveled to West Africa several times. NCC is proud of its efforts: African farmers need assistance in improving agronomic practices, establishing a reliable classing system, improving infrastructure and ginning, privatization of marketing and distribution, and assistance building expanded markets in order to improve farm income. The U.S. cotton industry, working cooperatively with USDA and US AID, has initiated several development programs designed to assist African farmers in achieving these results. On the other hand, the NCC adamantly opposes any cotton-specific trade negotiations: singling out cotton as a separate issue is both unfair and inappropriate. Unfortunately, this initiative has been influenced by poor economic analysis. Particular emphasis on U.S. Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 8
9 cotton is unjustified and unwarranted - the world cotton market is much more than the United States. The U.S. has not increased cotton production, but we have seen a surge in foreign production, particularly in China and Brazil. Congressional leaders, and US negotiating strategy largely reflects the positions of NCC. US Response to the challenge: Although the US agreed to cotton subcommittee as part of the July WTO Framework, the USTR is seeking to minimize the scope and function of the cotton subcommittee. First, the USTR opposes any form of compensation fund arguing that there is no precedent or modality for this concept as part of the WTO negotiations. Nonetheless, the USA expresses nonspecific support for development assistance for the African cotton sector. Second, the USTR advocates the position that the cotton subcommittee is not for negotiations, but rather to monitor progress. In effect, USTR argues the cotton subcommittee is not part of the single undertaking of the Doha Round. Prospects for reform: The Bush US approach to cotton subsidies is contradictory. On the one hand, the USTR is aggressively resisting reform at the WTO. On the other hand, the Bush Administration has proposed cuts to agricultural subsidies in In February, President Bush proposed a 5% overall cut to commodity payments. In addition, the President proposed to limit farm payments to a $250,000 maximum per farm. The payment limit would disproportionately cut cotton payments more than other commodities. At this point, there is no way to predict whether these subsidy cuts will be enacted. What is clear is that there is an internal conflict within the USA about farm subsidies, and cotton in particular. Many politicians and experts believe that US farm subsidies are excessive and create trade distortions. There is strong support for reform among newspapers and economists, think tanks and religious organizations. There is even a growing internal demand for reform among farmers, based on the domestic inequity of farm programs: most US farmers get no payments, and the vast majority of those who do receive payments get only small amounts. Only time and our hard work can tell the final result. Pan-African Workshop on Proposals for strategies for overcoming the crisis in the African cotton industry due to 9
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