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1 The following information was presented at the 2015 Cereals & Oilseeds Workshop on Feb 25, 2015 and should not be copied or reproduced without permission from the author. Contact: Dante Manocchio Richardson International
2 Grain & Oilseed Market Update Dante Manocchio Winter 2015
3 Jigsaw Puzzle Step 1 What Are We Looking At? Step 2 Find the Corners (Stones) Step 3 Look at the Individual Pieces Step 4 Put the Pieces Together
4 Agenda Grain Market Overview Corn & Wheat Oilseed Market Overview Canola & Soybeans Goal Better Understanding of Price Movements World View of Market Sentiment Understand How The Pieces Fit Together
5 Big Picture - Global Grains Record World Corn 990 MMT & Record Wheat 720 MMT Measuring the Giant Gulliver's Travel 370 MMT Corn Production Outweighs Storage ($1.85/bu ~ $72/mt) South America Still Loaded Brazil Subsiding Transportation World Winter Wheat Northern Hemisphere 90% Aus, Bra, Arg = 24/6/12 = 42 Quality Concerns in Wheat France, Canada, US Protein, Quality, Basis Big Crop: Supply Outstrips Demand
6 Big Picture Canada Return to Average Yields (Grains & Oilseeds) 70 MMT Production vs 90 MMT Last Year Order In Council Good Spring, Summer, Fall Movement Quality Concerns Late Aug/Early Sep Rains Grade & Protein Premiums Weaker CDN Dollar Supportive Stronger US Economy, Lower Unemployment, Good GDP Growth
7 Corners North America Production (MMT) US - Corn US - Wheat CDN - Wheat Ex-Durum CDN - Corn CDN - Barley CDN - Durum CDN - Oats CDN - Rye US Corn 70-75%, Feed Is the Base, Food is Premium Source Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada
8 Corners Canada Area Seeded (kha) 26,455 26,847 25,741 Area Harvested (kha) 25,694 26,115 24,350 Yield (t/ha) Production (kmt) 71,040 90,293 69,959 Imports (kmt) 1,018 1,001 1,773 Carry-In Stocks (kmt) 10,397 8,951 17,074 Total Supply (kmt) 82, ,245 88,806 Domestic Use (kmt) 36,570 39,750 38,601 Exports (kmt) 36,935 43,421 41,810 Total Demand (kmt) 73,505 83,171 80,411 Carry-Out Stocks 8,951 17,074 8,395 Source Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada
9 Individual Pieces Wheat Area Seeded (kha) 7,736 8,616 7,886 Area Harvested (kha) 7,619 8,444 7,478 Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) 22,579 31,025 22,731 Imports (kt) Total Supply (kt) 27,063 34,975 30,763 Exports (kt) 15,333 18,401 18,500 Food & Industrial Use (kt) 3,224 3,341 3,350 Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,724 4,442 4,087 Total Domestic Use (kt) 7,830 8,592 8,263 Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,900 7,982 4,000 Average Price ($/t) On Farm Revenue ($CDN B) Source Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada
10 Wheat Futures Snapshot World Production 720 MMT Up 6 MMT Record World Crop (Lower Pro) Heavy Black Sea Shipments in July Oct Argentina Opens up 1.5 MMT Dec-Mar Exports (HRW Bear) US SRW Paradox Cheapest Wheat, But No Buyers Ontario SRW in Late Exports (US 45%, CDN 80%) US Lags on Shipments & Sales Winter Wheat Lags Spring Wheat Normal Seasonally Weak Winter, Strong Spring
11 Corn Futures Snapshot Mixed Bag of Demand Drivers Ethanol Margins on very low-end, Crude Oil Weighing Down Record Feed Margins Elastic Exports US & Canada Uncompetitive Northern Hemisphere Crop Market Switches to Demand Mentality Funds/Money Flow - Long Adding to Longs, Grinding Range vs Local Markets Back of Mind Next Year s Acreage, Deep Carries
12 Putting the Pieces Together Grains Seasonally Weak into Winter, Stronger in Spring End Use Customers Sitting on Strong Margins Steady to Weaker, Quality Gets Premium Not Much to Feed Bulls Structurally
13 Big Picture - Global Oilseeds South America Beans Late Plant, but BIG Acres for a total production of 150MMT Arg Farmer Sell Rate, Later Harvest US Soybeans 107 MMT Measuring the Giant All Roads Lead to Meal China Soybeans 2/3 World Exports Rapeseed 1/4 World Exports
14 Corners World Canola 2013/2014 Canola 2014/2015 Supply Demand Supply Demand Production Crush Exports Ending Stocks Production Crush Exports Ending Stocks China India Japan EU Canada World Source USDA FAS Office of Global Analysis
15 Corners World Soybean 2013/2014 Soybean 2014/2015 Supply Demand Supply Demand Production Crush Exports Ending Stocks Production Crush Exports Ending Stocks United States Brazil Argentina China Canada World Source USDA FAS Office of Global Analysis
16 Individual Pieces Canola Area Seeded (kha) 8,912 8,070 8,095 Area Harvested (kha) 8,799 8,009 7,817 Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) 13,869 17,966 14,080 Imports (kt) Total Supply (kt) 14,704 18,620 16,568 Exports (kt) 7,305 9,094 8,400 Food & Industrial Use (kt) 6,717 6,979 7,100 Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) Total Domestic Use (kt) 6,810 7,162 7,268 Carry-out Stocks (kt) 588 2, Average Price ($/t) On Farm Revenue ($CDN B) Source Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada
17 Individual Pieces - Soybeans Area Seeded (kha) 1,680 1,869 2,231 Area Harvested (kha) 1,679 1,860 2,208 Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) 5,086 5,359 5,961 Imports (kt) Total Supply (kt) 5,575 5,867 6,528 Exports (kt) 3,332 3,600 4,200 Food & Industrial Use (kt) 1,541 1,527 1,600 Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) Total Domestic Use (kt) 2,088 2,049 2,078 Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price ($/t) On Farm Revenue ($CDN B) Source Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada
18 Prairie Oilseeds Prairie Soybeans 1.4 MMT Production, Surprisingly Resilient Good Movement Early China Export Strong Competition: 1 M+ Acres in North Dakota Prairie Canola 14 MMT Crop, 700K Acres Abandoned Strong Commercial Ownership 44% Oil/ 56% Meal Firming Quickly Crush Crush Margins Favor Beans Only Swing Plants (East)
19 Soy Futures Snapshot Strong North American Production Up 17 MMT US 107MMT vs 91 MMT LY (Up 16) Canada 5.9 MMT vs 5.2 LY Strong OND Export Program All Roads (80% Meal, 20% Oil) Cars Not Turning/Structural Expensive Barge Freight Seasonally October Bottoms, Strength in Spring
20 Putting the Pieces Together Oilseeds Huge World Crop, Farmer Sell Rate, Logistics Something is Going On Here; Historically Cheap All Roads Lead to Meal, Structural Issues China Swing Factor, Dancing with Dragon Lot of Bears Chewing Their Paws
21 Lingering Questions Logistics Winter well under way, Order in Council, Eastern US Farmer Sell Rate vs End Use Customer Storage vs Margin Game of Chicken South American Supply Crop in Late Wacky Weather US/CDN Export Season
22 Jigsaw Puzzle Step 1 What Are We Looking At? Record World Corn & Wheat Crops, Supply Outstrips Demand Step 2 Find the Corners (Stones) US Corn Crop Weighs on Values CDN Normalizes but Quality Concern Step 3 Look at the Individual Pieces Grains Nothing to Feed Bull Near Term Oilseeds Oddly Firm, Listen to Market Step 4 Put the Pieces Together Grains Near Fair Value, Strength in Spring Oilseeds Could Firm, Depends on Meal/South AM
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