World Wheat Supply and Demand. Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg
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1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg
2 Beginning Stocks Exporter beginning stocks down 35% from 5-year average /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Historical 5 Major Exporters Black Sea Others
3 World Production and Use Production Surplus 4 out of last 6 years MMT /05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production Use
4 World Wheat Production 2013 up 54 MMT from 2012 Canada +4.3 MMT U.S MMT EU +9.8 MMT Russia MMT Ukraine +6.2 MMT Kazakhstan +5.7 MMT Up 40%! China +0 MMT India +3 MMT AUS +3.4 MMT ARG +2.0 MMT 4
5 Year-to-year production changes Year-Over-Year Change (MMT) (20) 16 (22) 3 45 (40) (35) (42) (60) 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production Consumption
6 Exporter Supplies Year Average MMT /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Beginning Stocks Production
7 World Wheat Trade 2013 up 16 MMT from 2012 Canada +2.5 MMT EU +1.4 MMT Russia +5.8 MMT Ukraine +2.2 MMT Kazakhstan +1.3 MMT US +2.6 MMT China +5.5 MMT India -0.6 MMT ARG +1.0 MMT 35% below 10-year average Major Exporters: MMT MMT Up 17 MMT AUS +0 MMT 7
8 World Ending Stocks MMT /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 5-Major Black Sea ROW China India
9 Stocks/Use Ratio Percent /00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
10 % of Ending Stocks Held by Exporters 80.0% Major Exporters India China 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 22.5% 1.3% 28.8% 30.5% 3.4% 4.5% 27.3% 27.1% 29.9% 29.5% 31.8% 8.0% 8.0% 7.8% 10.1% 13.0% 31.9% 11.3% 30.0% 20.0% 47.0% 35.4% 32.6% 38.8% 39.8% 37.8% 34.9% 29.8% 28.9% 10.0% 0.0% 2005/ / / / / / / / /2014
11 Ending Stocks and Price MMT $/MT /86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 5-Major Black Sea ROW HRW price 0
12 World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand World and Exporter Overview U.S. Overview Outlook
13 U.S. Crop Planted Area Million Hectares /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Wheat Corn Soybeans
14 U.S. Situation Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports
15 U.S. Wheat Production by Class 12/13 13/14 Change (%) HRW % HRS % HARD TOTAL % SRW % White % SOFT TOTAL % Durum % 15
16 Export Commitments as of Nov /05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
17 U.S. Sales by Destination / / MMT
18 Sales by U.S. Class % 70% % 50% MMT % % 20% HRW HRS White SRW Durum 2013/ /13 % of Expectation 10% 0%
19 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class Total Ending Stocks: 28% below 5-year average Lowest level since 2007/08 MY MMT HRW HRS SRW White Durum 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 13/14
20 World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand World and Exporter Overview U.S. Overview Outlook
21 Outlook Southern Hemisphere Harvest Argentine Politics Non-Mercuser Supplies U.S. and World corn and soybean production China Imports and Production Outlook Negative production trends Winter wheat plantings U.S. Outlook Black Sea mixed
22 Southern Hemisphere Australia Large crop; MMT Frost damage; likely impact less than 200 TMT Low protein Logistical constraints buy forward Argentina Political problems stunt exports Private local production estimates at 9.5 MMT vs USDA 11 MMT Brazil will need to import 3.5 MMT from non-mercosur countries. Max 1 MMT imports from Argentina compared to average of 4 MMT Will Argentina continue to be a major exporter?
23 Argentina: Wheat on Downward Trend 25 Harvested Area (million hectares) Harvested Area Growth Rate Corn 2.9% Soybeans 5.2% Wheat -3.0% /01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Corn Soybean Wheat
24 Argentina: Wheat on Downward Trend MMT Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
25 World Corn Production, Use and Trade MMT Production Surplus Record Ending Stocks: 164 MMT Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) /05 07/08 10/11 13/14 Production Use Trade 0
26 World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) /05 07/08 10/11 13/14 Production Use Trade 0
27 China Imports Imports (mmt)
28 China: Dry Planting Conditions North China: 45% of total production
29 China: Dry Planting Conditions
30 Russian Winter Wheat Region Production concentrated in Central and Southern districts 30
31 Russia/Ukraine: Delayed Planting Too Wet and Cold
32 Russia: Delayed Planting Winter wheat plantings down 8%. More in Ukraine.
33 Russia/Ukraine: Crop Development
34 Ukraine: Competition for Land Corn Oilseeds Wheat
35 US Planting Conditions
36
37 Conclusions Record Production: World awash in wheat, soybeans and corn Record wheat use limits stock building Ending stocks nearly flat from last year Price Outlook Downside? Record corn and soybean production Northern hemisphere 2014 outlook positive; still early Indian exports will limit ease late season supply pressure Upside? China: Large imports this year. Possibly next? Where s the protein? Exporter stocks still tight Black Sea supply limited for LH of marketing year Logistical Constraints; Australia and Canada
38 U.S. Wheat The World s Most Reliable Choice 38
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