Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices"

Transcription

1 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Markets and Food Price Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 2, 28

2 Food commodity prices have risen 13 % since January 22 (>7% in last two years ) Index: January 22 = Food commodity price index M1 1982M1 1984M1 1986M1 1988M1 199M1 1992M1 1994M1 1996M1 1998M1 2M1 22M1 24M1 26M1 28M1 2 Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics

3 Prices of many commodities rose even more Index: January 22 = Crude oil Average of all comodities Food commodity index Jan 1992 Jan 1996 Jan 2 Jan 24 Jan % + 33 % + 13 % Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics

4 Food commodity prices: Indices for selected crops and total food Index: January 22 = Corn Soybeans Wheat Rice Food commodity index Jan 197 Jan 75 Jan 8 Jan 85 Jan 9 Jan 95 Jan 2 Jan 5 Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics

5 8 Crop price increases: real vs. nominal Average of 4 crops (wheat, soybeans, corn & rice) Index: January 22 = Real prices Nominal prices Jan 197 Jan 75 Jan 8 Jan 85 Jan 9 Jan 95 Jan 2 Jan 5 5 Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics

6 Factors contributing to higher food commodity prices Strong growth in demand, based on: Increasing population + Rapid economic growth + Rising per capita meat consumption Slowing growth in agricultural production Declining demand for stocks of food commodities Escalating crude oil price Increased biofuels production Dollar devaluation Rising farm production costs Adverse weather Large foreign exchange reserves Demand factors in brown Supply factors in green Aggressive purchases by importers Exporter policies 6 Importer policies

7 Million metric tons 3, World grain & oilseeds Total production and use Production Total use 2,5 2, 1, Source: USDA PS&D Database

8 8 Total world grain & oilseeds Stocks and stocks-to-use ratio Million metric ons Stocks / Use (%) Ending stocks Stocks / Use 4% 35% 6 3% 25% 4 2% 15% 2 1% 5% % 8 Source: USDA PS&D Database

9 Long-term trends contributing to higher prices: 1. Supply-side factors Slower growth rate in yields 2. Demand-side factors Population growth Income growth Increased per capita meat consumption 9

10 Total world grain & oilseeds 1 Production, yield, area harvested, population & percap production Index: 197 = 1 Exponential trend growth rates: Production Yields Area Population Per capita use Total oilseeds = soybeans + rapeseed + sunflowers Production Yield Population Percap production Area harvested 1 Source: Compiled from USDA s PS&D Database

11 Population growth rates decline (Percent by period) 4 Percent World Developed Developing Middle East Africa Latin America USA 11 Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

12 Strong economic growth Average Real GDP growth rates Percent World Developed Developing China India United States 12 Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

13 Global rice imports Million metric tons 3 Other Other Asia Indonesia N. Africa & M. East Sub-Saharan Africa EU, FSU, & OE 1/ Latin America 2/ 1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico. 13 Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

14 Global soybean oil imports Million metric tons / European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Asia excluding India and China. 3/ Includes Mexico. Rest of world EU, FSU, & OE 1/ India China Other Asia 2/ N. Africa & M. East Latin Am 3/ 14 Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

15 Global meat 1 Production, per capita consumption, and population Exponential trend growth rates: Production Population Per capita consumption Index: 1971 = Production Per capita Cons 1 Total meat = beef + pork + chickens & turkeys. Population 15 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 217.

16 Poultry imports 1/ Million metric tons Russia Other N Afr. & M. East East Asia China & Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico European Union 2/ 1/ Selected importers. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 22, EU-15 intra-trade before 23, Slovenia before Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

17 17 Role of biofuels: Major producers Impact on land use

18 Billion Gallons Biofuels production: Total of largest producers Biodiesel Ethanol 1 The 6 largest producers (USA, Brazil, EU, China, Canada, & Argentina) accounted for 96% of world biofuel production in 27. Source: FO Licht, various reports

19 Biofuels production: Largest producers Million Gallons 18, Ethanol Biodiesel 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Argentina Ukraine & Russia Brazil China Canada EU USA Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 217

20 Global area harvested 1 : Total, and for biofuels feedstocks Million hectares Total area harvested area planted to feedstocks < 3% of total Crops include: Wheat, Rice, Corn, Barley, Sorghum, Other cereals, Soybeans, Rapeseed, Sunseed, Cotton. Excludes sugarcane and beets 2 Source: Compiled from data associated with generating Baseline Projections to 217

21 U.S. corn use Billion bushels Ethanol FSI less ethanol 1/ Exports Feed & residual / Food, seed, and industrial less ethanol. Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217.

22 Growth in world wheat and coarse grains use: 198/81-22/3 vs. 22/3-27/8 Use 198/81 to 22/3 22/3 to 27/8 MMT % MMT % Food Feed* U.S. corn for ethanol Total

23 Adverse weather reduced production: In 26 Australia Ukraine & Russia and 27 Europe: dry spring; harvest floods SE Europe: drought Ukraine & Russia: drought (2nd year) USA: late spring freeze Canada: hot and dry Australia: 2nd year of severe drought NW Africa: drought Turkey: dry 23

24 Total world grain & oilseeds 1 Production, yield, & area harvested Index: 197 = Production Yield Area harv Trend growth rates: Prod Area Yields Total oilseeds = soybeans + rapeseed + sunflowers 24 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 217

25 Other contributing factors: Devaluation of U.S. dollar Increasing foreign exchange reserves held by importers Role of hedge funds, index funds, & sovereign wealth funds: (affect demand and/or volatility?) 25

26 Value of U.S. dollar declines after 22 1/ Index values, 2= / Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights, based on 192 countries. 26 Source: USDA PS&D Database

27 Foreign Exchange Reserves Emerging Asia: Foreign exchange reserves $bn 16 China Emerging Asia ex China Japan OPEC Russia Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics 27

28 Policy responses to food price inflation 28

29 Policy responses to rising prices by selected countries Exports Imports Domestic policies Country Raised Export Export Reduced Increased Imposed export volume bans import consumer price taxes restrictions tariffs subsidies caps. Export policies: Argentina x x Cambodia x Egypt x Kazakhstan x Russia x Ukraine x Vietnam x x Import policies: Bangladesh x x x EU x Mexico Morocco Mongolia Philippines Thailand x x x x x

30 Policy responses to rising prices by selected countries Exports Imports Domestic policies Country Raised Export Export Reduced Increased Imposed export volume bans import consumer price taxes restrictions tariffs subsidies caps. Both export and import policies: China x x x x India x x x x x Indonesia x x x Malaysia x x Serbia x x

31 Impact of high food commodity prices on consumers food budgets High-income countries Low-income food-deficit countries I. Base Scenario Income 4, 8 Food expenditure 4, 4 Food as % of income 1.% 5% Disaggregate retail food spending (staples vs. non-staples) Staples as % of total food spending 2% 7% Expenditures on staples 8 28 Expenditures on non-staples 3,2 12 II. Scenario: 5% Price increase in staples Partial pass through on staples Assumed % pass through 6% 6% Increase in cost of staples New cost of staples New total food costs 4, Food as % of income 1.6% 61% 31

32 U.S. Title II Food Aid Allocations $ Billion Million metric tons Value Quantity *28 is an forecast 32

33 28M1 Spikes in food commodity prices: Will this time be any different? Index: January 22 = Corn Soybeans Wheat Rice Food commodity index M1 1972M1 1974M1 1976M1 1978M1 198M1 1982M1 1984M1 1986M1 1988M1 199M1 1992M1 1994M1 1996M1 1998M1 2M1 22M1 24M1 26M1 33 Source: International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics

34 Categories of factors contributing to higher food commodity prices Temporary factors: Structural changes: Continuation of long-term trends: Questionable future impact: Adverse weather Trade policies by exporters and importers Aggressive buying by importers High oil prices Biofuels production High ag production costs Rapid economic growth in many developing countries Population growth in developing countries Increasing per capita meat consumption Further dollar depreciation Slower growth in ag productivity Role of large foreign exchange reserves held by importers Supply factors Demand factors 34

35 Prices have declined from their peaks (as of September 3, 28) Commodity Wheat Corn Soybeans Down 51 % 38 % 39 % Since peak in: Mid March End of June Early July 35

36 U.S. Commodity Prices: History & Projections Soybeans, Wheat, & Corn $ per bushel 12 1 Projections made in November 27 Dots indicate current estimates for 28/9 Soybeans Wheat Corn Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 217, February 28.

37 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices The report is available at: Ronald Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections

Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections Midwest Agriculture s Ties to the Global Economy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 28, 217 Chicago Jim Hansen, Ph.D. USDA,

More information

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent

More information

April 9, Dear Subscriber:

April 9, Dear Subscriber: April 9, 2014 Dear Subscriber: We will be adding material to this shell letter after the report is released on April 9, 2014 at 11:00 a.m CST. Be sure to click back on the link often for the latest information.

More information

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign

More information

Argentina. Poultry and Products Annual. Argentina Poultry & Products Annual

Argentina. Poultry and Products Annual. Argentina Poultry & Products Annual THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report

More information

Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends

Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends Agenda Short History of Agriculture Commodities US & World Supply and Demand Commodity Prices Continuous Charts What is Contango and Backwardation Barge, Truck and

More information

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020 INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1629 K Street NW, Suite 72, Washington, DC 26 USA Telephone (22) 463-666 Fax (22) 463-695 e-mail secretariat@icac.org The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend,

More information

Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections. University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA

Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections. University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA THE GLOBAL RICE MARKET PART 1 The 2014/15 Global Rice Market:

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 5.7 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 2.2 bushels per acre or

More information

John Deere. Committed to Those Linked to the Land. Market Fundamentals. Deere & Company June/July 2014

John Deere. Committed to Those Linked to the Land. Market Fundamentals. Deere & Company June/July 2014 John Deere Committed to Those Linked to the Land Market Fundamentals Deere & Company June/July 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important

More information

Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options

Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options Luc Christiaensen,, World Bank, presentation at the Managing Vulnerability in East Asia workshop, Bangkok, June 25-26, 26, 2008 Outline Where

More information

Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook

Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook United States Department of Agriculture WHS-2008-01 May 2008 A Report from the Economic Research Service Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook www.ers.usda.gov

More information

The dynamics of global food and agribusiness

The dynamics of global food and agribusiness Welcome to the world of Rabobank! The dynamics of global food and agribusiness Adrie Zwanenberg NUFFIELD Global Head F&A Research 20 February 2006 2 The world of Rabobank Food & agribusiness: a global

More information

CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES

CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES OCTOBER 2000 Darrel Good Summary The 2000 U.S. corn crop is now estimated at 10.192 billion bushels, 755 million (8 percent) larger

More information

Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply. Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC

Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply. Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC USSEC INTRODUCTION We Represent U S farmers U S Industry U S Department of Agriculture We work on finding new applications of soy & Implement

More information

IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook

IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2015 2019 Olivier Rousseau IFA Secretariat Afcome 2015 Reims, France October 21 st - 23 rd 2015 Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand Economic and policy

More information

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Agricultural Outlook Forum 216 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Robert Johansson Chief Economist 25 February 216 Fig 2 Main themes for 216 1. The macroeconomy is weighing on trade, but there are reasons for

More information

System development and analysis of long-term projection on global food supply and demand used synthetic model

System development and analysis of long-term projection on global food supply and demand used synthetic model System development and analysis of long-term projection on global food supply and demand used synthetic model Report on the Analysis of Baseline Projection Results March, 2012 Contents 1. Overview of

More information

World Corn Market Supply Demand Trends

World Corn Market Supply Demand Trends World Corn Market Supply Demand Trends Daniel O Brien Extension Agricultural Economist K State Research and Extension May 27, 21 The world corn market has many participants, but a small number of larger

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

Grain Market Outlook for

Grain Market Outlook for Grain Market Outlook for 2017-2018 KSU Ag Econ 520 Fall 2017 Manhattan, Kansas DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) Grain Market Analysis & Outlook Corn & Grain Sorghum

More information

Iowa Farm Outlook. March 2014 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Long-Term Projections for Beef Production and Trade

Iowa Farm Outlook. March 2014 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Long-Term Projections for Beef Production and Trade Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics March 2014 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2047 Long-Term Projections for Beef Production and Trade We often spend a lot of time focusing on the short-term market situation

More information

Rethinking US Agricultural Policy:

Rethinking US Agricultural Policy: Rethinking US Agricultural Policy: Changing Course to Secure Farmer Livelihoods Worldwide Daryll E. Ray Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte Kelly J. Tiller Agricultural Policy Analysis Center The University of

More information

The sheep and sheep meat trade market. Second EU Sheep Meat Forum Brussels, February 25, 2016

The sheep and sheep meat trade market. Second EU Sheep Meat Forum Brussels, February 25, 2016 The sheep and sheep meat trade market Second EU Sheep Meat Forum Brussels, February 25, 2016 Partnering your agribusiness development Market research 45 years Focused on agribusiness Worldwide coverage

More information

Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school?

Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school? October 16, 2006 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1944 Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school? Economists have studied the hog to corn ratio for over 100 years. This ratio is simply the live hog price

More information

World Sorghum Grain Producers

World Sorghum Grain Producers World Sorghum Grain Producers Million Metric Tons 18 16 14 12 12 10 8 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 0 14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Grain Sorghum Exporters Million Metric Tons 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

More information

Table 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports as a Share of Production, 1992

Table 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports as a Share of Production, 1992 Export markets are important to U.S. agriculture, absorbing a substantial portion of total production of many important commodities. During the last two decades there have been periods of expansion and

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

What future food security means to the developing and developed worlds. Reshaping the industry in turbulent times

What future food security means to the developing and developed worlds. Reshaping the industry in turbulent times What future food security means to the developing and developed worlds Reshaping the industry in turbulent times Nan-Dirk Mulder, 12 November 2014 Content 1. Long term global animal protein outlook 2.

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN: 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

Overview. 1. Background. 2. Biofuels in the United States and Canada. 3. Policy objectives. 4. Economic consequences. 5.

Overview. 1. Background. 2. Biofuels in the United States and Canada. 3. Policy objectives. 4. Economic consequences. 5. K. K. Klein and Danny Le Roy University of Lethbridge Lethbridge Alberta Canada Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada Economics of Alternative Energy Sources and Globalization Orlando Florida Orlando, November 15-17,

More information

Predicting future factors in meat supply and demand

Predicting future factors in meat supply and demand New perspectives Predicting future factors in meat supply and demand Nan-Dirk Mulder, Rabobank International Contents Section 1: Section 2: Short term outlook Long term outlook Rabobank International Rabobank:

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Food and Agricultural Sector

Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Food and Agricultural Sector Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Food and Agricultural Sector Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences Major Changes in Food and Agricultural Economy Demand:

More information

Argus Ethylene Annual 2017

Argus Ethylene Annual 2017 Argus Ethylene Annual 2017 Market Reporting Petrochemicals illuminating the markets Consulting Events Argus Ethylene Annual 2017 Summary Progress to the next peak of the economic cycle, now expected by

More information

GTAP Research Memorandum No. 28

GTAP Research Memorandum No. 28 Development of the GTAP Land Use Data Base for 2011 By Luis Peña-Lévano Farzad Taheripour Wallace E. Tyner GTAP Research Memorandum No. 28 June 2015 Development of the GTAP Land Use Data Base for 2011

More information

Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade

Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade Fresh Peach/Nectarine: 2014/15 Highlights Global production in 2014/15 of peaches/nectarines

More information

Commodity Market Monthly

Commodity Market Monthly Commodity Market Monthly Research Department, Commodities Unit May 12, 216 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org Commodity prices surged 4.7 percent in April, with gains in all main indices, and

More information

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/4/2014

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE

More information

Opportunities for Australian grain in South East Asia and implications of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. James Campbell Head of Agribusiness, China

Opportunities for Australian grain in South East Asia and implications of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. James Campbell Head of Agribusiness, China Opportunities for Australian grain in South East Asia and implications of the ASEAN Free Trade Area James Campbell Head of Agribusiness, China March 2015 CONTENTS 2 AUSTRALIA GRAIN INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 3

More information

Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16

Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16 Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16 University of Arkansas Webinar Series November 19, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA 11.20.15 PART 1 THE 2015/16 GLOBAL RICE

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN: 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE

More information

CANADIAN AGRIFOOD EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND THE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THE BRICS AND NEXT- 11

CANADIAN AGRIFOOD EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND THE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THE BRICS AND NEXT- 11 CANADIAN AGRIFOOD EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND THE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THE BRICS AND NEXT- 11 CATPRN Trade Policy Brief 2012-05 December 2012 Alexander Cairns Karl D. Meilke Department of Food, Agricultural

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE

More information

Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for Crimea.)

Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for Crimea.) Sept 7 Sept 14 Sept 21 Sept 28 Oct 5 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Nov 2 Nov 9 Nov 16 Million hectares 1,000 hectares 8,000 7,000 6,000 Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for

More information

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 02 OF 2013

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 02 OF 2013 THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT 1. SUMMARY NO. 02 OF 2013 The domestic closing stocks for maize in the current season are expected to decline by about 40.94% on the back

More information

The relation between commodity markets and resource markets. (and the impact of Russian embargo) Trevor Donnellan FAPRI-Ireland Teagasc

The relation between commodity markets and resource markets. (and the impact of Russian embargo) Trevor Donnellan FAPRI-Ireland Teagasc The relation between commodity markets and resource markets (and the impact of Russian embargo) Trevor Donnellan FAPRI-Ireland Teagasc Overview Boom in Prices Relationship in Price Across Sectors Decline

More information

Globalization: Implications for U.S. and Oklahoma Agriculture. Stillwater, Oklahoma November 9, 2012

Globalization: Implications for U.S. and Oklahoma Agriculture. Stillwater, Oklahoma November 9, 2012 Globalization: Implications for U.S. and Oklahoma Agriculture Stillwater, Oklahoma November 9, 2012 1 We Are Just One World Now Steve Jobs 2 From Today Forward will Be a profitable growth industry Be an

More information

Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA

Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA Overview 1) Soy Canada & Mandate 2) Soybean Sector Update & Trends 3) Growth in Western Canada 4) Commodity Soybean

More information

China s Choice and its implication: Import meat or soybean

China s Choice and its implication: Import meat or soybean China s Choice and its implication: Import meat or soybean Li Shantong, He Jianwu With the increase of population and households income level, China s demand on meat will continue to rise rapidly. However,

More information

Global poultry and pork outlook

Global poultry and pork outlook Global poultry and pork outlook Shaping the industry for competitiveness in a fast changing world Nan-Dirk Mulder, 8 November 217 Content I Global meat outlook 225 II III Regional meat outlook strategies

More information

An overview of global cement sector trends

An overview of global cement sector trends An overview of global cement sector trends Insights from the Global Cement Report 1 th Edition XXX Technical Congress FICEM-APCAC 2 September, 213 Lima, Peru Thomas Armstrong International Cement Review

More information

A global meat industry outlook

A global meat industry outlook A global meat industry outlook Capturing business opportunities in a fast changing world Copenhagen Nan-Dirk Mulder, 18 February 2017 Rabobank international introduction and global network of branches

More information

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Rebuilding the Cow Herd Series March 28, 2007 Falls City, TX Coordinated by: Dennis Hale-Karnes CEA Ag & Charlie Pfluger-Wilson CEA Ag Prepared and presented by: Larry

More information

Bassem Sami Akl Akl JBS Brazil Technical Services Director

Bassem Sami Akl Akl JBS Brazil Technical Services Director Bassem Sami Akl Akl JBS Brazil Technical Services Director May, 2017 RELEVANCE OF AGRIBUSINESS TO BRAZIL * *Gross Domestic Product 2015 Data RELEVANCE OF AGRIBUSINESS TO BRAZIL - LIVESTOCK * *Gross Domestic

More information

Energy, Agriculture and Food Security. Prabhu Pingali Deputy Director, Agriculture Development

Energy, Agriculture and Food Security. Prabhu Pingali Deputy Director, Agriculture Development Energy, Agriculture and Food Security Prabhu Pingali Deputy Director, Agriculture Development Talk to the National Academies Round Table on Science and Technology for Sustainability. Views expressed are

More information

Agriculture: farm income recovers

Agriculture: farm income recovers Agriculture: farm income recovers Farm earnings rose substantially last year, breaking a four-year slide. The index of prices received by farmers averaged a record 209 (1967=100). That was 14 percent over

More information

How Trade Liberalization Can Benefit the Environment (or The Fallacy of Food Miles )

How Trade Liberalization Can Benefit the Environment (or The Fallacy of Food Miles ) How Trade Liberalization Can Benefit the Environment (or The Fallacy of Food Miles ) Robert L. Thompson Gardner Endowed Chair in Agricultural Policy University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 12 May 2008

More information

Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture. Poultry Export Markets- Present and Future.

Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture. Poultry Export Markets- Present and Future. Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture Poultry Export Markets- Present and Future Thierry Murad USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Thierry Murad 25 February

More information

STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO

STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO 1 TABLE OF CONTENT S:NO CONTENT PAGE # 1 Acknowledgement 3 2 Rice sector of Pakistan 4 3

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE

More information

The compound feed industry in the EU livestock economy

The compound feed industry in the EU livestock economy The compound feed industry in the EU livestock economy Value of EU-28 farm production in 216 Source: Eurostat EU-28 Livestock sourcing in feedingstuffs 481 mio. t in 216 / EU Commission 1 Value of purchased

More information

COTTON REPORT. Kai Hughes. Cotton Production & Trade Trends. Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee

COTTON REPORT. Kai Hughes. Cotton Production & Trade Trends. Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee COTTON REPORT Kai Hughes Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee Cotton Production & Trade Trends International Cotton Advisory Committee WORLD COTTON AREA AND PRICES US cts/lb 18 15

More information

International Benchmarks for Wheat Production

International Benchmarks for Wheat Production September, 2016 International Benchmarks for Wheat Production Michael Langemeier, Associate Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture Elizabeth Yeager, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State

More information

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade United States Department of Agriculture Electronic Outlook Report from USDA s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service AES-99 May 25, 2017 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade FY 2017

More information

China - Commodities. Dragon shift 4Q2012. When the biggest nation building ends. Institutional Equities

China - Commodities. Dragon shift 4Q2012. When the biggest nation building ends. Institutional Equities Institutional Equities Dragon shift 4Q212 When the biggest nation building ends Our previous INCH reports Tiger Tong (65) 6511 6169 Contents Dragon shift... 1 The world s biggest nation building exercise

More information

Agriculture in China - Successes, Challenges, and Prospects. Prof. Zhihao Zheng College of Economics & Management China Agricultural University

Agriculture in China - Successes, Challenges, and Prospects. Prof. Zhihao Zheng College of Economics & Management China Agricultural University Agriculture in China - Successes, Challenges, and Prospects Prof. Zhihao Zheng College of Economics & Management China Agricultural University I. Success 1. For the past three decades (1978-2010), China

More information

The Current and Future World Food Situation: Is There an Emerging Food Shortage?

The Current and Future World Food Situation: Is There an Emerging Food Shortage? Working Paper WP96-1 January 1996 January 9, 1996 The Current and Future World Food Situation: Is There an Emerging Food Shortage? Ben Senauer and Stan Stevens Department of Applied Economics University

More information

Outlook of the World Rice Industry Under Alternative Trade Liberalization Policies in Japan and Korea

Outlook of the World Rice Industry Under Alternative Trade Liberalization Policies in Japan and Korea Agricultural Economics Report No. 433 December 1999 Outlook of the World Rice Industry Under Alternative Trade Liberalization Policies in Japan and Korea Won W. Koo Richard D. Taylor Department of Agricultural

More information

Figure : Trends in Production/Consumption of Coal in Asia. Figure : Trends in Production/Consumption of Oil in Asia

Figure : Trends in Production/Consumption of Coal in Asia. Figure : Trends in Production/Consumption of Oil in Asia Chapter 2 growing with Asia's development - Asia -Pacific framework toward sustainable growth Section 5 Common Agendas to be Solved by Asia to achieve sustainable growth 2. Issues on energy, environment,

More information

Potash Outlook Presentation

Potash Outlook Presentation Potash Outlook Presentation TFI Outlook Conference November 16, 2011 Yao Yao Manager, Market Research Source: from view PotashCorp.com menu, turn off if not needed Forward-Looking Statements This presentation

More information

The Battle of Big versus Small. Zenith Adspend Forecast 2017

The Battle of Big versus Small. Zenith Adspend Forecast 2017 The Battle of Big versus Small Zenith Adspend Forecast 2017 The global ad market will continue to grow steadily +5,9 Year-on-year growth (%) +5,6 +5,6 +5,5 +4,0 +4,1 +4,2 +4,1 2017 2018 2019 2020 Adspend

More information

Adding Imports to Producer Price Measures for Food By Alberto Jerardo

Adding Imports to Producer Price Measures for Food By Alberto Jerardo Adding Imports to Producer Price Measures for Food By Alberto Jerardo Paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Analytic Symposium Confronting Food Price Inflation: Implications

More information

India. India Grain Voluntary Update - October 2017

India. India Grain Voluntary Update - October 2017 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 10/3/2017 GAIN Report Number:

More information

Wild and farmed fish in the USA seafood market

Wild and farmed fish in the USA seafood market Wild and farmed fish in the USA seafood market John Connelly Your essential event for networking and information US Market Trends and Impact on Fishmeal October 2017 John Connelly Topics Outline National

More information

The Impacts of Energy Prices on Global Agricultural Commodity Supply. Getachew Nigatu, Kim Hjort, James Hansen, and Agapi

The Impacts of Energy Prices on Global Agricultural Commodity Supply. Getachew Nigatu, Kim Hjort, James Hansen, and Agapi The Impacts of Energy Prices on Global Agricultural Commodity Supply Getachew Nigatu, Kim Hjort, James Hansen, and Agapi Somwaru @* Selected paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural and Applied

More information

Impact of China s Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets

Impact of China s Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets Impact of China s Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets Jim Hansen, Francis Tuan, Agapi Somwaru, and Ralph Seeley United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,

More information

Rice Outlook. Nathan Childs. U.S. Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Raised to $15.15-$16.15 per Cwt

Rice Outlook. Nathan Childs. U.S. Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Raised to $15.15-$16.15 per Cwt RCS-8k Dec. 12, 28 Rice Outlook Nathan Childs U.S. Season-Average Rough-Rice Price Raised to $15.15-$16.15 per Cwt Contents Domestic Outlook Intl. Outlook Contacts & Links Tables U.S. Supply & Use S&U

More information

China at a Glance. A Statistical Overview of China s Food and Agriculture. Fred Gale

China at a Glance. A Statistical Overview of China s Food and Agriculture. Fred Gale China at a Glance A Statistical Overview of China s Food and Agriculture Fred Gale The United States and China are at very different stages of development and have quite different resource endowments that

More information

Are There Limits to Green Growth?

Are There Limits to Green Growth? Are There Limits to Green Growth? Edward B. Barbier Key Points Introduction 1 1 http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/ Green stimulus during the Great Recession 2 3 3 Table 1: Green stimulus during the Great

More information

World Agricultural Production

World Agricultural Production United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 05-17 May 2017 World Agricultural EU Wheat: 2017/18 Rebounds After Last Year s French Wheat Failure European Union

More information

Global Gasoline, Global Condensate and Global Petrochemical Markets to 2020 and How much naphtha will end up in gasoline blending?

Global Gasoline, Global Condensate and Global Petrochemical Markets to 2020 and How much naphtha will end up in gasoline blending? Study Prospectus Nexus - The Interaction Between: Global Gasoline, Global Condensate and Global Petrochemical Markets to 2020 and 2025 Can I export more naphtha? Should I build a splitter? Should I build

More information

S E A S O N A L COMMODITY INSIGHT

S E A S O N A L COMMODITY INSIGHT S E A S O N A L COMMODITY INSIGHT 09 th February 2015 Rice (Non - Basmati) Domestic Scenario India is the second largest producer of rice in the world after China, contributing to about 21.45 per cent

More information

Global Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: 2002 Feature: Bt Maize

Global Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: 2002 Feature: Bt Maize I S A A A INTERNATIONAL SERVICE FOR THE ACQUISITION OF AGRI-BIOTECH APPLICATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Global Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: 2002 Feature: Bt Maize by Clive James Chair, ISAAA Board

More information

Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015

Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015 Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015 Alina Zharko Association Ukrainian agribusiness club Dairy products Production of milk and dairy products in Ukraine Dairy products

More information

GLOBAL FEED SITUATION

GLOBAL FEED SITUATION Aidan Connolly Chief Innovation Officer VP Corporate Accounts Colm Moran Director Regulatory Affairs, EMEA ALLTECH INC. GLOBAL FEED SITUATION AFMA FORUM 2016 How was this survey conducted? Estimates compound

More information

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 01 OF 2013

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 01 OF 2013 THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT 1. SUMMARY NO. 01 OF 2013 The domestic closing stocks for maize in the current season are expected to contract by about 21.39% on the back

More information

Ammonia-based Fertilizer Markets Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals too?

Ammonia-based Fertilizer Markets Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals too? Ammonia-based Fertilizer Markets Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals too? Bala Suresh, Principal Analyst 15 th FORO PEMEX Petroquimica, 2013 Mexico City, Mexico June 5, 2013 bala.suresh@ihs.com Agenda What

More information

International Energy Outlook 2011

International Energy Outlook 2011 International Energy Outlook 211 Center for Strategic and International Studies, Acting Administrator September 19, 211 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE

More information

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin Development Research Group The World Bank Washington DC Kanderson@worldbank.org Why try to reduce sensitive agric

More information

Ag Specificities and International Trade: Implications for Food Security

Ag Specificities and International Trade: Implications for Food Security Ag Specificities and International Trade: Implications for Food Security Bruno Larue Canada Research Chair in International Agri-food Trade Université Laval McGill Conference on Global Food Security: Risks

More information

2017 Crop Market Outlook

2017 Crop Market Outlook 2017 Crop Market Outlook Presented at the Row Crop Short Course Jackson County Agriculture Conference Center March 2, 2017 Adam N. Rabinowitz, PhD Assistant Professor and Extension Specialist Agricultural

More information

Commodity Market Monthly

Commodity Market Monthly Commodity Market Monthly 1 Research Department, Commodities Team* January 1, 214 www.imf.org/commodities Commodity prices rose by 2.4 percent in December, with increases in most main indices. During 213,

More information

Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain

Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain February 2009 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forwardlooking statements involve known

More information

Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014

Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014 Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, 2000-2013. Outlook for 2014 Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain Conference, April 17-18 2013 Black Sea Grain in the Global Markets Black Sea Wheat

More information

How the Ethanol Industry Impacts the U.S. Economy 3 rd Annual Commercial Ethanol Technology and Research Workshop St. Joseph, MO October 27-28, 2010

How the Ethanol Industry Impacts the U.S. Economy 3 rd Annual Commercial Ethanol Technology and Research Workshop St. Joseph, MO October 27-28, 2010 How the Ethanol Industry Impacts the U.S. Economy 3 rd Annual Commercial Ethanol Technology and Research Workshop St. Joseph, MO October 27-28, 2010 John M. Urbanchuk Technical Director - Environmental

More information