Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service June 2015 Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade FRESH APPLES World apple production in is estimated to decrease slightly from last year, down 1 percent to 70.9 million metric tons (tons), as declines in China and Turkey more than offset gains in the European Union (EU) and the United States. Global trade is forecast to decrease 3 percent primarily as a result of Russia s continued ban on fruit from certain countries. World Apple Export Decline Driven by China and Chile Million Metric Tons 6 5 China Chile 4 Other 3 Russia s production is forecast to increase nearly 10 percent to 1.6 million tons due in part to higher yields from renovated orchards. Beginning in August 2014, Russia banned imports of fruit from certain countries, causing trade to plummet 33 percent to 800,000 tons. Despite this, Russia remains the top importing country / / / /14 EU s production is forecast to increase 11 percent to 13.3 million tons due to gains in Poland. Despite Russia s ban, exports are forecast to increase 6 percent to 1.7 million tons on stronger shipments to new and existing markets in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. Imports are expected to decrease 22 percent to 485,000 tons as record production saturates the domestic market. 1,400 1,200 1, Russia s Apple Imports Decline Due to Ban United States production is forecast to increase 9 percent to 5.1 million tons on a record harvest in Washington, the top growing state. Exports are forecast to increase 10 percent to 930,000 tons on continued strong demand from Mexico, while imports are expected to decrease 13 percent to 185,000 tons / / / /14 Chile s production is forecast to decrease 8 percent to 1.2 million tons due to a late spring frost in the major apple producing regions, which also lowered fruit quality. As a result of lower exportable supplies, shipments are expected to decrease 16 percent to 740,000 tons. China s production is forecast to decrease 5 percent to 37.8 million tons as yields fall in key provinces due to low temperatures and heavy rains during the blossom period which was followed by drought. To receive the circular via , register at: Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Processing is expected to decline nearly 20 percent due to lower production. As a result of lower availability, rising prices have made exports less competitive. Argentina s production is forecast at a low 640,000 tons due to hail damage and large volumes of unharvested product as a result of labor issues and rising input costs. Exports are forecast to decline slightly to 140,000 tons. Mexico s production is forecast at 670,000 tons after last year s record crop. To satisfy demand, imports are forecast to increase 23 percent to 280,000 tons on strong shipments of U.S. product. Argentina Apple Exports Continue Trending Lower New Zealand s apple production is forecast to 0 increase to 540,000 tons, growth of 11 percent as onyear production and new trees coming into production counter the losses caused by hail. Haildamaged product will increase the amount going into processing, leaving exports relatively flat at 315,000 tons. South Africa s apple production is expected to increase 13 percent to 900,000 tons as new trees come into production. Exports are expected to parallel production, increasing 10 percent to 420,000 tons. Turkey s production is forecast to drop 22 percent to 2.3 million tons due to frost which damaged the fruit set. As a result of lower availability, exports are expected drop nearly 50 percent to 100,000 tons. Beginning with this report, Belarus was added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for apples back to marketing year 2001/

3 FRESH TABLE GRAPES World table grape production is forecast at 20.6 million tons, a modest increase of 2 percent over last year, as gains in China, and to a lesser extent Chile, more than offset losses in the EU and Turkey. Global exports are expected to continue expanding, with 3 percent growth driven by Chile and Turkey. China s production is forecast to increase 11 1,000 percent to 9.0 million tons as harvested area continues to expand. Though the vast majority of 500 grapes are consumed domestically, exports are forecast up 25 percent to 130,000 tons. Imports 0 are expected to decrease slightly to 225,000 tons, 2010/ / / / /16 as lower shipments from Chile and the United States more than offset higher shipments from Peru. On January 1, 2015, the import tariff applied to product from Peru dropped to zero. United States production is forecast to decrease 9 percent to 920,000 tons as California s crop suffered hail damage during the bloom and drought continues to be a concern for many of these growers. Exports decreased 6 percent to 391,000 tons on decreased shipments to top markets Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. Imports increased 5 percent to 547,000 tons on increases from Chile and Peru. Chile s grape production is forecast up 14 percent to 1.2 million tons despite drought in some grape growing regions. As a result of increased available supply, exports are expected to rebound to 830,000 tons. EU s production is forecast to decrease 16 percent to 1.6 million tons as area harvested continues to decline. Exports are forecast to drop 34 percent to 100,000 tons driven by the Russian ban. Imports are forecast to increase slightly to 580,000 tons on higher shipments from South Africa. Turkey s production is forecast to decrease 13 percent, to 1.9 million tons, due to hail and frost in the spring, which was followed by heavy rains during the bloom. Exports are forecast up 27 percent to 260,000 tons on increased shipments to Russia and Belarus. Peru s production is forecast to increase 8 percent to 540,000 tons as growth continues to be driven by foreign demand. Exports are forecast to gain 9 percent to 290,000 tons as market share continues to rise in Asia, the EU, and the United States. World Table Grape Export Growth Driven by Chile and Turkey Argentina s production is forecast to rebound 86 percent to 130,000 tons on favorable growing conditions, in sharp contrast to last year s crop that was devastated by frost. Exports are forecast to increase to 22,000 tons on increased exportable supplies. 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Turkey Chile Other Peru Exports Continue Gaining Ground Against Competition / / / / /14 Chile United States South Africa Peru Turkey

4 Russia s production is forecast to increase nearly 10 percent to 80,000 tons. Imports are expected to remain flat at 325,000 tons as supplies from banned countries are largely offset by imports from Turkey. Beginning with this report, the following countries were added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for grapes back to marketing year 2001/02: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Switzerland, Thailand.

5 FRESH PEARS World pear production is forecast to increase 4 percent to 24.2 million tons on increased production in China. Global trade is forecast down 6 percent driven by lower shipments from Argentina, the EU, and the United States. Russia s production is forecast to increase 3 percent to 150,000 tons due to favorable weather. Imports are expected to drop 33 percent to 275,000 tons due to the August 2014 Russian ban on fruit imports from certain countries, which affects primarily the EU. Imports from other countries, such as Belarus, China, and South Africa, are expected to only partially offset these losses. After Years of Growth, World Pear Exports Continue Declining 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, China s production is forecast to continue expanding, increasing 7 percent to a record 18.5 million tons on increased plantings. Exports are expected to rise 9 percent to 325,000 tons driven largely by shipments to Russia. United States production is forecast to decrease 8 percent to 732,000 tons on lower yields in major producing states. With lower output, exports are forecast to decrease 14 percent to 175,000 tons, and imports are forecast up 10 percent to 90,000 tons, while fresh consumption is nearly unchanged. EU s production is forecast flat at 2.4 million tons as higher yields offset less area. Exports are forecast to decrease 10 percent to 425,000 tons as continued effects of Russia s ban are partially offset by gains in Eastern Europe and North Africa. Imports are expected to decrease 10 percent to 230,000 tons on lower demand. Argentina s production is forecast to decline 12 percent to 610,000 tons due to hail damage and large volumes of unharvested product as a result of labor issues and rising input costs. Exports are forecast to follow suit, decreasing 17 percent to 340,000 tons. Chile s pear production is forecast to rebound 9 percent to 290,000 tons on favorable growing conditions. Exports are forecast to increase 11 percent to 130,000 tons. South Africa s production is forecast to decrease 6 percent to 390,000 tons as a result of hail damage. A modest decrease is forecast for exports, down 4 percent to 200,000 tons. Beginning with this report, Belarus was added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for pears back to marketing year 2001/02.

6 For additional information, please contact Elaine Protzman at , or For subscription, click here to register: To download additional data tables, go to Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): ( scroll down to Reports, and Click the plus sign [+] next to Fruits and Vegetables, and click on tables for apples, fresh grapes, and pears. For FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade Reports: and click on Deciduous Fruit. For archives World Market and Trade Reports: For Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): For the Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): For Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Marketing Years: Apples - The United States and Mexico are on an Aug-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. Table Grapes - The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. Pears - Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

7 Apple Summary (1,000 Metric Tons) 2010/ / / /14 Dec Jun Production China 33,263 35,985 38,500 39,680 37,800 37,800 European Union 10,981 12,338 12,207 11,974 13,300 13,300 United States 4,175 4,231 4,049 4,673 4,877 5,079 Turkey 2,500 2,700 2,900 2,900 2,250 2,250 India 2,891 2,203 1,915 2,200 2,200 2,200 Russia 910 1,124 1,264 1,416 1,550 1,550 Brazil 1,339 1,336 1,335 1,335 1,335 1,335 Chile 1,431 1,360 1,420 1,310 1,410 1,200 Ukraine 954 1,127 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 South Africa Other 4,314 4,567 4,047 4,359 4,081 4,160 Total 63,525 67,784 69,665 71,759 70,833 70,894 Fresh Dom. Consumption China 26,490 30,647 32,317 34,861 33,810 33,948 European Union 7,508 8,072 7,933 8,044 8,664 8,123 United States 2,157 2,195 2,293 2,482 2,658 2,737 India 2,985 2,381 2,087 2,366 2,370 2,340 Turkey 2,325 2,517 2,762 2,609 2,112 2,054 Russia 1,533 1,564 1,947 2,046 1,750 1,750 Brazil 1,224 1,112 1,160 1,225 1,245 1,195 Other 6,334 7,030 6,820 7,113 6,364 7,332 Total 50,554 55,517 57,319 60,746 58,974 59,480 For Processing European Union 2,973 3,281 3,273 2,950 3,868 3,900 China 5,760 4,400 5,200 3,850 3,150 3,150 United States 1,341 1,368 1,058 1,561 1,534 1,597 Russia Chile South Africa Argentina Other Total 12,500 11,708 11,912 10,431 11,092 10,863 Imports Russia 1,111 1,201 1,338 1, Belarus European Union Mexico United Arab Emirates Canada United States India Saudi Arabia Taiwan Other 1,884 1,862 1,806 1,793 1,817 1,786 Total 4,829 4,968 5,300 5,232 4,532 5,101 Exports European Union 1,120 1,503 1,568 1,604 1,250 1,694 United States China 1,087 1,012 1, Chile South Africa New Zealand Serbia Argentina Turkey Brazil Other Total 5,269 5,487 5,650 5,733 5,146 5,500 Note: The United States and Mexico are on an August-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

8 Table Grapes Summary (1,000 Metric Tons) 2010/ / / /14 Dec Jun Production China 6,200 6,600 7,400 8,085 9,000 9,000 India 1,235 2,221 2,483 2,500 2,500 2,500 Turkey 2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 1,920 1,920 European Union 2,090 1,898 1,724 1,936 1,630 1,630 Brazil 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 Chile 1,215 1,175 1,195 1,055 1,205 1,205 United States , Peru South Africa Ukraine Other Total 16,826 18,092 19,158 20,119 20,555 20,554 Fresh Dom. Consumption China 6,230 6,644 7,436 8,212 9,160 9,095 India 1,166 2,111 2,335 2,363 2,367 2,404 European Union 2,514 2,345 2,134 2,356 2,040 2,110 Turkey 1,914 1,960 1,992 1,997 1,751 1,661 Brazil 1,275 1,281 1,289 1,306 1,300 1,310 United States 1,118 1,044 1,084 1,118 1,115 1,076 Russia Chile Ukraine Korea, South Other 1,041 1,155 1,254 1, ,245 Total 16,727 18,041 18,985 19,925 20,197 20,338 Imports European Union United States Russia China Hong Kong Canada Thailand nr 90 Korea, South Mexico Kazakhstan nr 60 Other Total 2,408 2,517 2,550 2,581 2,432 2,654 Exports Chile United States South Africa Peru Turkey Hong Kong Mexico China European Union India Other Total 2,504 2,566 2,718 2,758 2,772 2,852 Note: The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. The abbreviation "nr" (not reported) indicates there was no data for that country when it was published in December.

9 Pear Summary (1,000 Metric Tons) 2010/ / / /14 Dec Jun Production China 15,057 15,800 17,000 17,300 18,500 18,500 European Union 2,378 2,895 2,009 2,431 2,410 2,410 United States Argentina South Africa India Japan Turkey Chile Russia Other Total 21,027 22,362 22,612 23,284 24,411 24,206 Fresh Dom. Consumption China 13,514 14,119 15,243 15,506 16,536 16,533 European Union 2,187 2,256 1,735 1,942 1,967 1,877 United States Russia India Japan Turkey Brazil Belarus nr 150 Australia Other Total 18,910 19,673 20,146 20,630 21,510 21,461 For Processing China 1,120 1,264 1,350 1,500 1,650 1,650 European Union United States Argentina South Africa Chile Russia Turkey Mexico New Zealand Other Total 2,059 2,531 2,388 2,516 2,683 2,577 Imports Russia European Union Brazil Belarus nr 150 Indonesia Mexico United States Other Total 1,692 1,676 1,681 1,640 1,468 1,543 Exports European Union Argentina China South Africa United States Chile Turkey Other Total 1,745 1,822 1,746 1,760 1,622 1,646 Note: Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. The abbreviation "nr" (not reported) indicates there was no data for that country when it was published in December.