The Age of Food: feeding the world in the era of peak people JULIAN CRIBB FTSE RABOBANK CAREERS IN AG FORUM MELBOURNE, 30 MAY, 2016

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1 The Age of Food: feeding the world in the era of peak people JULIAN CRIBB FTSE RABOBANK CAREERS IN AG FORUM MELBOURNE, 30 MAY, 2016

2 Food will change... Food will change more in the next 100 years than it has in the last menu unrecognisable to today s consumer Change driven by: fierce supply/demand pressures global scarcities changing climates growing health and social impacts new science & technologies

3 A wicked problem... DEMAND: 150,000+ more people/day More babies + longer lives Rich eat 35,000 more meals Population >11 bn by 2100 Meat demand soaring in NICs Food demand to double by 2060s CONSTRAINTS: Peak water Peak land Peak oil Peak Phosphorus Peak fish R&D drought Capital drought Climate extinction

4 Peak water By 2030, demand for water could be 40% greater than supply available UN Report, Groundwater mining Vanishing lakes Disappearing rivers Shrinking glaciers

5 Our dwindling water supplies Source: Mekonnen MM and Hoekstra AY, Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science Advances, 12 Feb billion already water stressed and 5bn by 2050

6 The war for water Energy sector will triple water use by 2050 (coal, oil, gas) 8 billion city dwellers will double water demand by 2050 Minerals processing will double water use by 2050 Conclusion: farmers must double food output using half the currently available water

Irrigation now grows 40% of world s food using 69% of its

7 A thirsty species Average person uses 1386 tonnes of fresh water/year 100,000 tonnes of water each in a lifetime > Irrigation now grows 40% of world s food using 69% of its water By % of world food SUPPLY will require irrigation. >

8 Vanishing land 33% of world s topsoil lost since 1975 The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75 to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues at present rates, it is estimated that there is only another 48 years of topsoil left. - Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute 2006

9 Declining nutrient density of food Sources: Lindlahr 1914, USDA 1963, 1997.

Megacities: mega-risks By 2030... By 2050s.

10 Megacities: mega-risks By By 2050s. 8 billion will inhabit cities Total urban area = China Urban water use 2800 cu kms Cities cannot feed themselves

11 'Peak oil' Food & oil prices Food are and in lockstep oil prices: locked together: Car numbers growing 7x faster than oil supplies

12 Why we must recycle nutrients < 30-50% of world s food is currently wasted or lost post-harvest Peak phosphorus 5 Sources of artificial fertilisers will be scarce by 2050 >

13 Peak fish The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world s oceans has probably been reached. - FAO World sea fish catch Peak fish 90% of fisheries fully-fished or overfished Source: FAO SOFIA 2014

14 Knowledge drought World food R&D spend 35 R&D Stagnant stagnation crop yields

15 Devouring a Planet Every meal costs the Planet: 10 kilos of topsoil 1.3 litres of diesel 800 litres of fresh water 0.3g of pesticide

16 Killer diet 2 people in 3 now die of a dietrelated disease (The Lancet, 2012) Food kills 6x more people than tobacco 75% of healthcare costs linked to chronic disease 1.4bn overweight/obese Diabetes: world s 7 th largest killer by 2030 (WHO) Food deaths are preventable deaths F o o d

+ 4-5 o C warming by 2100 Holocene climate is extinct +1.

17 + 4-5 o C warming by 2100 Holocene climate is extinct degrees inevitable 5 o of warming : 50% less food? Arable farming highly vulnerable above 2 o Rising risk of regional famines Climate impact on food

18 The challenge To more double global food output with: - half the present fresh water - less land - no fossil fuels (eventually) - unaffordable fertilisers - less technology - inadequate investment - unreliable climate. Huge new opportunities for New Zealand

19 Urban sky farms

20 Intensive systems Blue Farms, Sydney MiljoGartnieret, Norway Recycled nutrients Recycled energy No pesticides Bio pest control Automated crop management Specialty crops

21 Floating greenhouses, desert farms

22 Green cities: climate-proof food

23 Re-wilding half the world

24 Fish farm boom Farmed fish Wild fish

25 Algae boom By 2050 water plants (algae) will be the world s top crop: health food, stockfeed, transport fuel, plastic, textiles, chemicals, paper etc

26 Novel foods: 26,700 edible plants

27 Cultured meat 2011: first synthetic sausage 2013: first synthetic hamburger 2020: health profiled meat

28 Biocultures & foodprinters

29 A new respect for food Food Year in every junior school on Earth Teach respect for food: how to eat for health & to sustain our food supply OR? OR?

Careers in the Age of Food World demand for skills in water, soil and landscape management New jobs in intensive urban farming, hydroponics, aquaponics, algae culture New jobs in in nutrient and

30 Careers in the Age of Food World demand for skills in water, soil and landscape management New jobs in intensive urban farming, hydroponics, aquaponics, algae culture New jobs in in nutrient and water recycling Development of high-value eco-farming systems Re-wilding of native landscapes Huge growth in design of healthy, sustainable diets, novel foods, cuisine. Careers in nutrition for disease prevention.

Ch Food Resources. wheat, rice and corn provide ~50% of the calories people consume; all three are annuals

Ch Food Resources. wheat, rice and corn provide ~50% of the calories people consume; all three are annuals Ch. 12 - Food Resources How is Food Produced? What Plants and Animals Feed the World? 15 plant and 8 animal species supply 90% of our food wheat, rice and corn provide ~50% of the calories people consume;