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1 Cutting edge research, state of the art reports, conference calls, seminars and trading have made American Restaurant Association Inc. the premier food commodity economics company since or Page 1

2 The Customized Monthly Commodity Report (Forecasting Plus Model Program Report) Prepared for Sample Cient Prepared on July 9, 2015 Presented by or Page 2

3 Commodity Overview ARA Restaurant Commodity Index (1/2/2010=100) / Average 2015 Well, the USDA had a few surprises up their sleeve in the June 30 th grain acreage and quarterly grain stocks data corn acreage is now estimated by the USDA at 88.9 million which is roughly 300,000 less than their March estimate and what the trade was anticipating. It is also 1.9 percent less than the previous year and the smallest since Soybean plantings this year are now projected at 85.1 million which was also less than what was anticipated. That said, it is 1.7 percent more than the previous crop and a record wheat acreage is estimated by the USDA at 56.1 million, 1.2 percent smaller than last year. These acreage numbers along with solid demand and a bigger decline in corn and soybean quarterly stocks have made the weather a more prominent influencer in the grain markets as of late causing nearby corn futures to climb to a one year high. And although we believe that the grain markets have made a longer term bottom this year that could persist at least into 2017, there are several fundamental factors to believe that the near term upside may be limited in these markets including the fact that the corn, soybean and spring wheat crops still have a long way to go. But brace yourself commodity buyers, if a bottom has been made in corn and soybeans, bottoms in several of the other major commodity markets may not be far behind including in dairy, poultry and pork. The chicken markets especially have our attention here. Chicken wing prices remain historically inflated for this time of the year due in part to the relatively tame chicken slaughter expansion compared to the previous year. Most of the year over year gains in chicken production have been due to heavier bird weights and not more birds being slaughtered. Further, chicken breast prices have moved counter-seasonally lower during the last several weeks causing chicken producer margins to wane. If this continues it could lead to a slowdown in chicken slaughter this fall. We do not expect avian flu to play a major role in the chicken markets this fall. But it will do so in turkey and eggs. Buyers will be happy to know that a top may be in for beef prices. The beef markets have, as expected, traded at historically expensive levels during the spring and early summer. But demand should seasonally wane in the near term. Longer term, the cattle herd is building with the major beef cow states experiencing some of their best pasture conditions in the last decade. Page 3

4 Price(lb.) Poultry The chicken markets have continued to move in opposite directions as of late with breast and leg quarter prices declining and wing prices firm. Chicken production has been trending near 5 percent above the previous year however most of that has been due to heavier bird weights. Avian flu remains a concern for the poultry industry especially turkey and eggs however the growth in cases has slowed significantly. Further, shell egg prices have softened as of late. Noteworthy additional avian flu cases are not expected during the summer due to the warmer temperatures however, further outbreaks are likely this fall. The broiler industry will be watched closely as migratory birds move south. However, avian flu, at this point, is not expected to greatly infect the broiler meat supply due to precautionary measures in place. That said, slower chicken output growth could materialize as early as this fall due to declining margins for producers. This should be supportive of chicken prices in The turkey and egg markets are anticipated to be especially volatile over the next several months ARA Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Index ARA BnSl Chicken Breast Index 5 yr avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nnv Dec Ann Page 4

5 f 2016f pounds USDA U.S. Egg Production (mil doz.) f 2016f U.S. Per Capita Available Chicken Supply Page 5

6 Price(lb.) Beef The beef markets have traded at historically expensive levels this early summer which, given the year to year declines in beef output, is not a surprise. As of early July the USDA choice boxed beef cutout was trading 2 percent above last year and 30 percent above the five year average for the date. Beef output to date is trending 5.3 percent below last year. Feedlot models suggest that cattle supplies are backing up in the feedlots. This is partly behind the USDA s forecast for a 1 percent gain in beef production during the back half of this year compared to. Further, pasture conditions have improved considerably in recent months. This and the elevated feeder cattle prices are encouraging the domestic cattle herd to expand. Thus, beef production next year is projected by the USDA to rise 3 percent. The most expensive beef prices may behind us but any market declines in the coming months are likely to be tempered. Choice Beef Chuck Clod Tender 114f F Choice Clod Tender 5 Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 6

7 Price(lb.) Choice Inside Round Choice 168 Inside Round 5 Year Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 7

8 Million Pounds US Beef Supply Page 8

9 1/25 2/15 3/8 3/29 4/19 5/10 5/31 6/21 7/12 8/2 8/23 9/13 10/25 11/15 12/6 12/27 Price(lb.) Dairy The dairy markets have been mixed in early July with cheese and nonfat dry milk prices softening and the butter market remaining firm. Recently, the CME spot nonfat dry milk market traded at its lowest level since the CME sessions began in Milk production gains remain tepid with output during May up 1.4 percent compared to the previous year. Milk farmer margins remain well below levels experienced last fall. This factor and deflated international dairy prices are expected to keep milk output growth relatively tame into This should be generally supportive of the dairy markets longer term especially in cheese and nonfat dry milk. Butter prices could remain firm due in part to challenged milk output in California lb. Cheese Block (CME) CME Block Cheese 5 yr avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 9

10 Price(lb.) Class II Cream Class II 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 10

11 1/25 2/15 3/8 3/29 4/19 5/10 5/31 6/21 7/12 8/2 8/23 9/13 10/25 11/15 12/6 12/27 Price(lb.) Dry Buttermilk $2.500 $2.000 $1.500 $1.000 $0.500 $- Dry Buttermilk 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 11

12 Billion Pounds Date Barrel Block Butter Whey Class III Futures Market Difference Cheese Futures Futures Market Difference NFDM NDM Futures Market Difference Butter Futures Market Difference Whey Whey Futures Market Difference Milk Forecast 7/6/ 7/6/ Futures Forecast 7/6/2015 Futures Forecast 7/6/ Futures Forecast 7/6/2015 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Avg Milk Production Change f Source USDA Baseline Stats and ARA Page 12

13 Price(lb.) Wheat The wheat markets have jumped as of late with the nearby Minneapolis wheat futures contract trading at a five month plus high. Heavy rainfall in the better part of winter wheat country has caused crop concerns. Still, winter wheat crop ratings as of the last week of June were on par with historical averages total U.S. wheat production is expected decline roughly 1 percent to its lowest level in four years. Still, wheat export demand remains lackluster due to deflated world prices. U.S. wheat disappearance during the March through May time period was 17 percent below the previous year. So, unless the international wheat markets start to appreciate or U.S. crop conditions worsen, the upside may be limited in the near term for wheat prices. That said, long term, the greater price risk in the wheat markets is to the upside. HRW Wheat HRW Wheat 5 Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Page 13

14 Date HRW KC Wheat Futures Market Difference Wheat Forecast Futures Forecast 7/6/15 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun AVG Available U.S. Wheat Stock as a Percent of Use 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Page 14

15 $ lb. Grains The corn and soybean complex markets have risen as of late due to adverse weather and below expectations data from the USDA. On June 30 th, the USDA corn and soybean planting estimates along with the quarterly stocks data came in below what the trade was anticipating. The latter is due in part to generally lower prices encouraging demand. Both corn (4.4 percent) and soybean (19 percent) disappearance during the March through May time period was better than last year. The margin of error with the existing corn and soybean crops has tightened some with the recent USDA data and weather. This could keep the markets especially erratic during the next few months. There is very little correlation behind excess rain in June and lower corn and soybean yields. However, it is likely that the markets have made a longer term bottom due to declining margins for corn and soybean farmers Soybean Oil Soybean Oil 5 yr avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 15

16 Date Soybean Oil SO Futures Futures Market Difference Forecast Forecast 7/6/2015 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average Page 16

17 Price(lb.) Pinto Beans Forecast 5 Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 17

18 Price(lb.) Black Beans Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 18

19 Price(lb.) Long Grain Rice Rice 5 Yr. Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 19

20 Ending Stocks Per Use Ratio 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2005/ / / / / / / / /14 / /16 Crop Year Soybean Corn Page 20

21 Price(lb.) Pork The pork markets have firmed in recent weeks. Pork production continues to track well above levels. To date, pork output is trending near 6 percent above the previous year. Pork demand has been better. The USDA pork belly cutout recently climbed to its highest level since the fall. Solid pork output expansion is expected to preserve into the fall. However, hog farmer margins are declining which is slowing herd growth. The March to June 1 swine breeding herd declined by the largest amount in seven years. This may lead to tame pork production expansion in 2016 which should be supportive of the pork markets Pork Picnic Cushion Cushion 5 year avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 21

22 Million Pounds US Pork Supply Page 22

23 Price(lb.) Softs The sugar market has remained historically deflated of late due in part to better than expected Brazilian harvests. History suggests that the greater price risk in the sugar market is to the upside from here. That said, unless the Brazilian real and various other currencies start to appreciate notably compared to the U.S. dollar any pending sugar market gains may be limited. Sugar Sugar 5 Year Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 23

24 Sugar Ending Stocks per Use Ratio 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Page 24

25 Price(cs.) Produce The lettuce and tomato crops have been challenged by adverse weather at times but generally supplies have remained adequate. The lettuce and tomato markets can become erratic at times during the summer months. Avocado- Hass 48 count Avocado 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 25

26 Price(cs.) Strawberries- 12 count year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 26

27 Price(cs.) Roma Tomato Roma Tomato 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 27

28 Price(cs.) Lemon- 200 count Lemon 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 28

29 Price(cs.) Lime- 150 count Limes 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 29

30 Price(cs.) Yellow Onion (50 lb.) Yellow Onion 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 30

31 Price(cs.) Romaine Lettuce- 24 count Romaine 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 31

32 Price(cs.) Cilantro Cilantro 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 32

33 Price(cs.) Tomatillo Tomatillo 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 33

34 Price(cs.) Green Onion- 48 ct. Green Onion 5 year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 34

35 Price(lb.) Seafood The seafood markets have generally been steady to weak during the last month. The U.S. dollar is trading at multi-year highs against several seafood trade important currencies which is encouraging strong seafood imports. Relatively strong seafood imports are anticipated to continue which should weigh on the seafood markets for the next several months. Salmon Filet- Steak Salmon Filet-Steak 5 yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 35

36 Price(gal) Energy The crude oil and petroleum product markets have been relatively range-bound during the last month although the economic challenges in Greece and the impact on the Eurozone have weighed on the markets. Natural gas continues to track between $2.50 and $3.00. Domestic natural gas production is expected to remain strong which should limit the upside in the natural gas markets for the next few years despite efforts to export product. Still, the greater risk in the natural gas market is to the upside and buyers should have longer term coverage. The crude oil and petroleum product markets may continue to track near recent levels in the near term barring any further noteworthy economic events Diesel Fuel Diesel 5 year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 36

37 Date Diesel Diesel Futures Market Difference Futures 7/6/2015 Forecast Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Avg Page 37

38 Price(lb.) Paper/Plastics Polystyrene Polystyrene 5 year avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Page 38

39 Recommendations 2015 Coverage Executed 2016 Coverage Executed Coverage Pending Beef 50% Beef Trim- 67% at.84 for Jun thru Aug 15. Belly- own 75% at $1.075 for Jan thru Aug 15. Ham- 50% at $.65 for Jan thru Sep 15. Pork Chicken Bnls Snls Chix Breast- 50% at $1.35 for Jan thru Sep 15. Dairy Butter- own 50% at $1.705 for Jan thru Dec 15. Cheese- Own 50% at $1.69 for Cheese- own 50% at $1.73 for Jan thru Jun 16. Butter- own 50% at $1.73 from Jan thru Jun 16. Corn Corn- own 75% at $4.45 for Jan thru Dec 15 Corn- own 50% at 4.40 for Jan thru Dec 16 Soybean Meal- own 50% at $360 for Jan thru Dec 15. Soybean Oil- own 75% Soybean Oil- own 75% at.3375 for Jan thru Dec 16. Soybean Mealat $.409 for Jan thru Dec 15. own 50% at 330 for Jan thru Dec 16. Soybeans Wheat Softs Energy MN- own 75% at $7.13 for Jan thru Dec 15. KC- own 75% at $6.98 for Jan thru Dec 15. CH- own 75% at $6.55 for Jan thru Dec 15. Mn Wheat- own 50% at 6.15, Ch Wheat- own 50% at $5.45. KC Wheatown 50% at 5.90 for Jan thru Dec 16. Coffee- own 75% at $1.34 for Jan thru Dec 15. Sugar 11- own 50% at $.1925 for Jan thru Dec 15. Sugar 16- own 25% at $.264 for Jan thru Dec 15. Coffee- 25% at $1.45 for Jan thru Dec 16. Nat Gas- own 100% at $3.95 for Jan thru Dec 15. Diesel- own 75% at $2.69 for Jan thru Dec 15. Nat Gas- own 75% at $3.38 for Jan thru Dec 16. Diesel- own 75% at 1.87 for Jan thru Dec 16. Cheese- Get 50% at $1.73 for Jul thru Dec 16. Butter- Get 50% at $1.73 from Jul thru Dec 16. Page 39

40 Key Commodity Currencies Page 40

41 Page 41

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