World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014

Transcription

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing

2 World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India

3 World Wheat Supply and Use Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

4 World Corn and Wheat Exports Trade Years* *Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June. Source: USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Grains:World Markets and Trade, 10,

5 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,266 2, Imports Total supply 3,131 3, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,406 1, Exports 1,007 1, Total use 2,414 2, Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

6 World Rice Production Country or Region Million Tons World United States Foreign Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

7 World Rice Supply and Use Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

8 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) 7,449 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price /

9 World Corn Production Country or Region Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India

10 Brazil Corn Summary April 2014 Brazil Corn Unit Change from last month (%) Change from last year (%) Prev. Record Area Mil. ha 15.8* 14.7 NC -7% 15.8 Yield Tons/ha 5.16* % -5% 5.16 Production Mil. tons * Indicates a record Year 81.50* % -12%

11 Brazil Corn: First-season compared to First-season Corn Planting began in September Area down 0.4 Mha from last year. Crop is harvested. Some damage from heat and drought. Corn production used by livestock industry. Second-season Second-season Corn Planting began in Feb High cost of production and low prices result in unprofitability. Area down 0.7 Mha from last year. Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential. Corn production for export market. 11

12 Average Since Last Meeting Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 2 nd Corn (DERAL) 99% Planted Mar 30: 82% vegetative 14% flowering 3% filling 92% Good / 1% Poor 12

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14 3. Toledo, Parana, Brazil Satellite-derived vegetation health indicates conditions for (RED) are similar to season (YELLOW) for corn in Parana. Corn yields are similar to last year s 4.83 tons per hectare. Second-crop corn Critical flowering and grainfill stages for secondcrop corn are expected in late April and early May. 14

15 South Africa s Grain Basket Approximately 50% of production is divided between east and west. West: Lower yields & greater corn area North West Gautang Mpumalanga East: Higher yields & less corn area Free State 15

16 Lower Yields in the West Lower yields in the west due to lower rainfall and low plant density from wide row spacings (>1.5-meters). 16

17 Monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) Anomaly Derived from Thermal Band on MODIS sensor of Average ( ) Dec, 2013 Jan, 2014 Feb, 2014 Mar, 2014 Source: FEWSNET/USGS Africa: Global: 17

18 Average Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 18

19 North West Province: MODIS-NDVI Time Series Source: USDA/NASA GLAM Project 19

20 Latest trend is to install center pivots (CP) with smaller diameters. 20

21 World Corn Supply and Use Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks ,

22 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Feed and residual Food, seed, and industrial Ethanol Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels ,780 13, ,932 14,781 4,333 5,300 6,046 6,400 4,648 5,000 10,379 11, ,750 11,111 13, , Dollars per bushel /

23 World Soybean Production Country or Region Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

24 Brazil Soybean Summary April 2014 Unit Change from last month (%) Area Mil. ha * 1% 8% Yield Tons/ha % -1% /11 Production Mil. tons * -1% 7% Brazil Soybean * Indicates a Change from last year (%) Prev. Record Year record 24

25 Hot and dry in early February About 40 percent of production. 25

26 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Crush Seed and residual Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels ,034 3, ,239 3,494 1,689 1, ,779 1,780 1,320 1,580 3,099 3, Dollars per bushel /

27 World Cotton Production Country or Region Million Bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone

28 World Cotton Supply and Use Million Bales Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total Use Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks

29 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Stocks/use Average market price Million bales Cents per pound /

30 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand Thousand MT Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Total Use Ending stocks 966 6, ,158 4,726 1,972 6,698 1,460 1,460 6, ,036 4,690 2,399 7,

31 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks Production Beets Cane Imports TRQ Re-export Mexico High-tier Total Supply Exports Domestic deliveries Total use Ending stocks 1,979 8,982 5,076 3,906 3, , , ,752 12,026 2,158 2,158 8,644 4,984 3,660 3,184 1, , , ,051 12,376 1, Stocks/use ratio

32 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Production Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Steers Hogs Broilers Turkey Billion pounds Dollars/cwt Cents/lb

33 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat Beef Exports 2,583 2,515 4,992 4,850 7,364 7, ,812 15,709 Imports 2,250 2,

34 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Dollars/cwt Average market price 1/ Class III Class IV All milk / Prices are mid-point of published s; milk of average fat test Production Imports Commercial use Exports Billion pounds

35 U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Class III Class IV All milk Dollars/pound Dollars/cwt

36 U.S. Production Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 2, , ,034 19,820 39, ,982 2, , ,289 19,665 40, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat

37 Domestic Demand Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 1, , ,779 18,686 29, ,752 1, , ,780 18,450 29, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat

38 U.S. Export Summary Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) 1, ,320 2,164 11, , , ,580 1,550 11, Meat (Million lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 2,583 4,992 7, ,812 2,515 4,850 7, ,

39 Price Summary Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt)