Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Karamoja. A brief Overview

Transcription

1 Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Karamoja A brief Overview

2 Climate Change & Food Security

3 Karamoja: The 2015 Season June to August 2015 Monthly rainfall July to September 2015, as a percentage of the 20-year average (top). Vegetation at the end of the month, July to September 2015 (bottom) Hashed pattern indicates main agricultural areas. Brown shades indicate below-average rainfall; blue shades indicate above-average seasonal rainfall. Second Stage The second half of the season from July to September, in contrast was affected by drier than average conditions. This clearly affected vegetation development with a progressive degradation in conditions from July onwards. This period include the key crop development stages and crops probably endured significant damage. Pasture conditions probably will have degraded as well.

4 Karamoja: The 2016 Season June to August 2016 Monthly rainfall April to July 2016, as a percentage of the 20-year average (top). Vegetation at the end of the month, April to July 2016, (bottom) Hashed pattern indicates main agricultural areas. Brown shades indicate below-average rainfall; blue shades indicate above-average seasonal rainfall.

5 Karamoja: The 2015 Season October to December 2015 Monthly rainfall October to December 2015, as a percentage of the 20-year average (top). Vegetation at the end of the month, October to December 2015 (bottom) Hashed pattern indicates main agricultural areas. Brown shades indicate below-average rainfall; blue shades indicate above-average seasonal rainfall. Final Stage The rainfall pattern underwent another marked change in the last quarter of the 2015, with mostly above average rainfall from October to December. This is linked to the El Nino influence that leads to wetter than average conditions during this period across East Africa in general. As a result of these wetter conditions, there was noticeable recovery in vegetation, which recovered to well above average levels by end of January. These conditions should have benefitted mainly pasture conditions and pastoral livelihoods. Some later crops may have benefitted as well, but these conditions probably did little to improve crop prospects.

6 Karamoja: The 2016 Season September to December 2016 Monthly rainfall September to November 2016, as a percentage of the 20-year average (top). Vegetation at the end of the month, September to November 2016, (bottom) Hashed pattern indicates main agricultural areas. Brown shades indicate below-average rainfall; blue shades indicate above-average seasonal rainfall.

7 Summary Climate Analysis Rainfall has increased over the 34-year period examined for Karamoja; indicating a change in seasonality. However, the variability of rainfall has also increased; Temperatures have also increased over the 34-year period examined for Karamoja. The environment that WFP works in and knows extremely well is itself changing.

8 Summary Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Access to weather related information is Crucial - own knowledge and indigenous information systems are relied upon as important sources of weather related information; Drought/prolonged dry spells are the most frequent climate shock to affect households and livestock most frequently sold in order to cope with this shock; Over half of respondents are not sure/have not perceived changes in climate; Over half do not think the climate will continue to change; Over three quarters of respondents have not made adaptation changes; The main reason being not knowing how to.

9 Climate Analysis Findings

10 Rainfall (mm) Climate Analysis Decadal Changes in Monthly Rainfall Mean monthly rainfall has generally increased over the 34-year period for Karamoja; Extended the rainfall season - potential to lengthen the growing period? However, standard deviation in monthly rainfall has also increased Figure 2: Decadal changes in mean monthly rainfall estimates for Karamoja. Error bars represent standard deviation in mean monthly rainfall estimates. 60 Increase in Rainfall Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11 Rainfall Estimate (mm) Variance Climate Analysis Yearly Rainfall Anomalies and Variance Total rainfall per year and variance in yearly rainfall have both increased over the 34-year period for Karamoja; As such, Karamoja is receiving more rainfall per year however the variance of rainfall within the year is also increasing. Significant year-to-year variations in rainfall; Cyclical pattern of periods of above average rainfall followed by periods of below average rainfall. 400 Rainfall Estimate Variance Rainfall Estimate Trend Variance Trend 1200 Figure 3: Total rainfall estimates per year anomalies (difference from the mean of 860mm) and variance in yearly rainfall estimates for Karamoja from 1981 to

12 Temperature ( C) Climate Analysis Monthly Temperature Anomalies Mean monthly temperatures have increased over the 34-year period for Karamoja; 1980 to mean monthly temperatures were generally cooler than the mean for the period; 2001 to temperatures were generally warmer than the mean. 3 Temperature Temperature Trend Figure 4: Mean monthly air surface temperature anomalies for Karamoja from 1981 to

13 2. Impacts of Climate Change and Adaption Findings

14 Access to Agricultural and Climate Information Access to agricultural and climate information is low across Karamoja. Findings indicate a high reliance on: Own knowledge (51%); Indigenous information systems: elders/traditional forecasters (31%) and community meetings (30%). Perpetuation of misleading and counterproductive information? Opportunity to integrate scientific information with indigenous information systems? Own knowledge Elders/Traditional forecasters Community meetings NGOs Radio/TV Government extension workers Religious groups Other Karamoja 51% 31% 30% 27% 24% 18% 14% 19% Figure 7: Did you have access to agricultural and/or climate information from this [source] in the last 12 months? Percentage of respondents who answered yes. Values under 10% not labeled. Abim 33% 31% 25% 22% 21% 17% 30% Amudat 30% 11% 10% 25% Kaabong 61% 59% 51% 49% 14% 25% 19% 25% Kotido 74% 40% 32% 26% 36% 18% 18% Moroto 57% 44% 32% 32% 25% 32% 24% 19% Nakapiripirit 60% 29% 21% 25% 13% 11% 21% Napak 47% 27% 31% 21% 37% 17% 20% 12%

15 Type of Weather or Climate Shock 72% of respondents stated that droughts/prolonged dry spells had affected their households in the last five years; Results fit the climate analysis findings of a more erratic rainfall system and increasing mean monthly temperatures; Droughts/prolonged dry spells Floods Strong winds Erratic rainfall Fires Torrential storms Figure 8: Which climate or weather shocks have significantly affected your household during the last 5 years? Values under 10% not labeled. Karamoja 72% 15% 11% Abim 75% 13% Amudat 67% 28% Kaabong 78% 15% Kotido 87% 14% 18% Moroto 72% 19% Nakapiripirit 50% 30% 10% Napak 68%

16 Have made Adaptation Changes And Reasons for Not Making Changes Over three quarters of respondents at the regional level have not made changes to protect themselves, their family or their community from the impacts of climate change; Respondents who have noticed changes in climate were more likely to have taken adaptation measures; Just 12% of respondents plan to make adaptation changes in the future to protect against climate change over the next five years. At the regional level over half (52%) of respondents have not made any changes as they don t know how to; A third (33%) of respondents cite financial resources as their reason for non-adaptation. Yes No Don t know how to Financial resources Not enough land Have no seeds Other 5% 3% 24% 7% 52% 76% 33% Figure 15: Respondents who have made changes to protect themselves, their family or community against climate change. Figure 16: If no, why have you not made any changes?

17 Climate Change & WFP 1. The traditional agricultural season is no longer as productive as in the past; with WFP requiring to increase assistance levels in periods that were usually post-harvest phases in the past. 2. An emergence of a second season and rainfall in later parts of the year however farmers have thus far not taken advantage of this phenomenon as traditionally they do not plant in December. 3. The result of this, for WFP, has been that in recent times agropastorlists are doing better, in terms of food security, than households with no cattle. 4. Increasingly, HH are forced to sell livestock to cope. This has serious implications on the nutritional status of the household; particularly the children. 5. Need for WFP to address the information gap; as well as include Climate Change information in its various on-going extension programmes.

18 Thank You For more information, please contact: Daniel Chaplin