The Future of Agricultural Inputs Market in Nigeria Policy Recommendations and Actions

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1 Final Report The Future of Agricultural Inputs Market in Nigeria Policy Recommendations and Actions

2 Introduction The future of the Agricultural Inputs market was discussed in a workshop at Ibeto Hotel on 1 June, The workshop was attended by invited key stakeholders in the agricultural input sub-sectors, comprising of private sector businesses, government officials, IFDC, NIRSAL and other partner organizations. The workshop was initiated, funded and facilitated by Propcom Mai-karfi, a DFID-funded project, and technically managed by Professor Ode Ojowu, a policy consultant with wide experience and knowledge of Nigeria, who provided the discussion paper and facilitated the technical session. The opening address to the round table was delivered by Eng. O. Jatto - Director Federal Agriculture Inputs Department, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The key objectives of the round table were: To identify one or two policy issues critical to the development of the agriculture inputs sector in Nigeria. To develop a framework for engaging with key policy institutions (government) to influence agriculture inputs policy development in Nigeria. The round table provided an opportunity for various stakeholders to reflect on their experiences and to suggest ways in which the agricultural inputs sector can be supported to anchor the revival and growth of agriculture and agribusiness sector in Nigeria. Summary of discussion Participants generally acknowledged the achievement of government in developing the agricultural sector since the return to democratic rule in This has been made

3 possible through the introduction of several agricultural programmes, particularly the Growth Enhancement Scheme (GES) component of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). These efforts have culminated in the growth of the agriculture sector far above the population growth rate thereby stabilizing the price of staple foods and kept headline inflation low up to the current economic crisis. In spite of these laudable achievements, the forum noted that policy inconsistency both in content and frequency of policy change has slowed down the pace of development in the sector. It was noted that prior to the implementation of the GES, government s direct participation as an intermediary in the subsidy scheme weakened the link between input suppliers and end users thereby stunting the input market. It was widely acknowledged that the implementation of the GES in 2012 has substantially reduced the persistent cycle of inefficient and ineffective input system due to government withdrawal from direct procurement and distribution Consequently, it has encouraged the development of private sector competitive markets that would administer subsidy more successfully than through government channels. In particular the development of farmer database has been acknowledged to facilitate accurate targeting of intended beneficiaries and improve transparency and accountability in the procurement and distribution system. The forum welcomes the recent commencement of the implementation of Nigeria Agriculture Payment Initiative (NAPI) meant to eliminate multiple registrations of farmers, domesticate the technology and reduce costs of registration. NAPI will facilitate farmers access to the national ID card. This is expected to address all challenges associated with farmers identity, clustering and payment systems. Essentially, the forum noted that NAPI has potential to facilitate the delivery of

4 fertilizer and seeds to most of the targeted beneficiaries that will be a stimulant to private sector investment in the input market through enhanced integrity of the farmer data base. The forum identified key challenges facing the GES including: Inadequate quantity of fertilizer of about two bags of 100kg each to a farmer and small quantity of improved seeds that is not always considered of good quality; Late arrival of inputs especially fertilizer and mismatch between available fertilizer types and farmers requirements; Long distance to redemption centres and cumbersome redemption procedures; There were reported cases of leakages such as re-sales of subsidized fertilizer by farmers at the redemption centres resulting in the product finding its way back to the market; Challenges faced by input dealers relate to logistics and payments, ignorance of farmers with respect to the GES operational mechanism and poor access to finance; Fertilizer producers complained of the seasonal nature of the GES market. While, fertilizer companies produce the commodities throughout the year, demand through GES occurs mostly during the farming season thereby compelling them to export the surplus; Also the ostensibly high subsidy element of the GES attracted speculative importers with sharp practices that included importation of low quality fertilizers that tended to crowd out the investment incentives for local production.

5 Policy recommendations Boost stakeholders confidence by stabilizing the input policy environment. Government should avoid frequent policy reversals that have often characterized past input policies leading to poor outcomes. In this regard, the private sector is urged to initiate demand-driven policy changes going forward. Given the overall success recorded by the implementation of the GES, it was generally agreed that efforts should be geared towards addressing observable weaknesses in the GES. This would require the following: o Reduce the size of the subsidy to between 20-25% consistent with international practice and in view of the current economic realities. This will reduce the number of speculative investors in favour of genuine domestic producers. o Strengthen the database through sustenance of the NAPI. o The nexus between financing, insurance and farmer participation and local producers and distributors should be strengthened relying on the experiences of banks, FEPSAN, NIRSAL, GES, input producers and distributors. o The first two policy recommendations are for the immediate attention of the federal government. The third recommendation will require further discussion by a technical team that will focus among others on. Working out a viable vertical policy coordination between the Federal government and the states since agriculture is on the concurrent legislative list. Mechanisms for wider collaboration to facilitate speedy payment of redemption to suppliers. Facilitate the completion of the legal framework to protect fertiliser consumers (weight and quality).

6 Redirect subsidy to producers so as to encourage genuine private sector investment and development of the output market through proactive regulation General points and key themes Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) GESS has had mixed success over time. This is acknowledged by those in government and in the private sector. Improved subsidy delivery; o Evidence abound that show GESS has improved over time. Recognition as one of the best efforts to distribute subsided inputs. Over time it has reached more poor farmers with inputs. And has reduced the number of loopholes in the system. The GESS TAP was specifically outlines as a major improvement instituted to ensure better service delivery o It has strengthened private sector role in the distribution of subsidised inputs as opposed to the past when distribution was in the hands of government officials. The inclusion of suppliers and distributors as major players in the scheme was a good effort. Major challenges are still at play o Many unintended beneficiaries gained from the scheme, and in many instances it crowded out genuine businesses, while creating opportunistic business entities with little interest in developing the inputs market. o GESS serves as a disincentive to developing the open market. The GES requires huge volumes to be traded during certain times of the year and nothing for the rest of the year. GESS inputs then find their way back into the market through leakages in the system. This acts as a disincentive for

7 fertiliser producers because they cannot compete in the open market where inputs at sold at half price. o The scheme kills local investments and production. The high profit margin of the GES attracts opportunistic investors to enter the market in search for quick profits. These investors look outside the country to import cheap, lower quality fertiliser, ultimately hurting the local producers who have invested heavily on producing quality fertiliser. o With the advent of austerity measures, the subsidy mechanism has also led to closure of some businesses. Currently, there is about 70 billion naira outstanding payments owed to agro-dealers and fertiliser companies from the GES. This has adversely affected private sector businesses and investments likely to hurt the sector in the future. o Some key players in the scheme got their hands burnt with some anomalies within the GES because of some poor management and implementation. Some of the businesses that engaged in GES were not genuine businesses. Resulting in hefty pay-outs due to non-perfo4rmance or lack of traceability. Suggestions from participants Opportunity to develop an exit strategy for GES o GES could perform better if re-engineered and improved from the lessons learnt. These learning points however need to be well articulated and shared with the stakeholders and Federal government. An exit strategy needs to be developed jointly by key stakeholders and federal government to lay a path for the complete exit of government from the procurement and distribution of agricultural inputs (with an appropriate timetable). This needs to be done in a way that is inclusive and negotiated in the light of prevailing economic circumstances and the need to reposition agriculture as a major sector.

8 Opportunity to develop both supply and demand side of the agricultural inputs market o Subsidy could be used in a way that it encourages local production of agricultural inputs. For instance, subsidy could be used to incentivise establishment and production of high quality fertiliser production which in turn drives down costs to the farmer. This is in the light that Nigeria has the main input to fertiliser production. The current and growing unmet demand of about 1.2 million metric tonnes of Fertilizer, close to over 0.5 million metric tonnes of seeds is an attractive commercial opportunity for most private sector partners. o Another suggestion was for government to incentivise the development of local distribution channels that enable farmers to access quality fertiliser closer to them. Producers and suppliers could be encouraged to establish distribution and warehousing in key rural areas so that farmers have access to fertiliser on time. o Government and private sector could work out a programme that ensures that the supply shortfall (not met by GES) is covered by the private sector through a well-crafted scheme of support (similar to the scheme used to grow the cement sector in Nigeria). Currently, Notore & Indorama fertiliser companies have about 3.5 million metric tonnes capacity of Urea production in Nigeria. The total blending capacity of different fertiliser blends in Nigeria is about 3.5 million MT annually. o Government policy has neglected the output market which is key to driving a vibrant input market. Farmers do not use inputs if the excess production does not attract better prices. Policy should focus on some level of guarantee to farmers for their product. Such policy would pump prime the markets and hence increase adoption and demand for high quality inputs with the resultant production increases. GES could learn from what has worked

9 o Suggestion was made to borrow or learn from successful innovations, especially those being implemented by development programmes such as Propcom Mai-karfi (PM). PM s success story on mechanization financing & other accomplished business models focusing on agricultural inputs could be adapted to suit the needs of Government and private sector in the inputs market. o Improve on existing mobile-solutions (Cellulant & Chyp models) to facilitate business innovations to reach more smallholder market segment at the rural locations through: provision of appropriate agronomic practices, effective market distribution network and access to mobile money. o The GES TAP model had its strong points. It ensured outreach and eliminated some inefficiencies in the system. The technology could be strengthened to be used to strengthen private sector distribution channel. Farmers should be redeeming inputs from commercial channels as a way to encourage commercial transaction. Redefining and mainstreaming role of Federal Government vis a vis that of State governments o There is inconsistency in the way agriculture inputs policy is defined and implemented. State governments seem to have their own policies on agriculture, and seem to implement their own inputs programmes in parallel to federal government. How can the gap be narrowed for the benefit of the farmer and market? o Public sector should focus on the enabling environment and regulatory aspects of the input market. For instance there are policies and regulations that increase cost of importing inputs. Processes and operations at ports of entry are a major hurdle that the government could focus on. o There are also other policies that do not protect intellectual property of private sector players. Federal government should be helped to identify such policies and regulations that benefit the whole sector and has the farmer at the heart of the policy/regulation. For instance lack of quality

10 seeds especially Breeder and Foundation seeds, which leads to poor seeds available in the market, could be reduced if Intellectual property of private sector was protected through robust legislation/regulation. Government could also focus on enforcing ethical standards in the sector. o Currently extension workers ratio to farmers in Nigeria is: 1 extension officer to 5,000 farmers! Revival of agriculture as a key sector depends on the quality of extension, and this can be driven by the government policy and incentives. For instance policy should encourage and incentivise private sector investments into extension services. Opportunities could also be explored for PPP models that allow private sector to use government extension agents to reach farmers with education and training. Working more closely with private sector to develop new models of delivery o FEPSAN has so far developed and presented a strategy paper to the government on various issues and suggestions. There is scope to revisit this paper and build on it so as to establish ways to work with the Government to better implement the ideas shared with the government. This can be sorted out through a multi-stakeholder participation. o All participants acknowledged the current severe security challenges in the movement of agricultural inputs (especially fertiliser) within the country. However the FMARD and the private sector seem to have succeeded in convincing the NSA (National security adviser) to back down on the stiff restrictions of agric. inputs distribution. Similar initiatives should be undertaken through fast tracked consultation and policy amendments in cases of emergencies that have potential to adversely affect agriculture. An example was given of the effects of Tuta Absoluta and how urgent policy intervention would have enabled private sector to import the right agrochemicals to deal with the problem. o Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL) has started a process of developing a mechanism to finance

11 agricultural inputs similar to the one used in financing agricultural mechanisation. There is a clear opportunity that this model could be designed jointly as a PPP model which can then be used as a platform for future fertiliser distribution to smallholder farmers. There is scope for this model to be used to inform future agricultural input incentive schemes. Other comments and suggestions A framework should be established and implemented that protects the consumer from poor quality inputs. Documentation and branding that allows traceability and should be put in place so that producers/importers/distributors can be held accountable for poor quality inputs This framework should also protect consumers/farmers (e.g. weights and quality). Redirect subsidy to be SMART (we need to define smart) so as to encourage increased genuine private sector investment. Reduce the size of subsidy from its current level to between 20%-25% overall to discourage rent seeking. Modernise the Agricultural sector and move it away from subsistence to more commercial agriculture. The future of agriculture should be towards commercialisation, and encouraging investments that drive commercialisation. Conclusions and recommendations of the round table There is need to have further wider technical sessions and consultations on some key policy issues and to agree ways of effectively engaging with government to influence and craft good policies that will shape the future of Agricultural Inputs market in Nigeria. The aim should be to have consistency and predictability in policy formulation and implementation irrespective of changes in the political economy.

12 Objective 1: Policy priorities Two policy issues were agreed as providing entry points for such consultation processes Reviewing the GES to adapt to the reality of the economy and agriculture inputs market: The government is currently reviewing the GES policy with a view to improving design and implementation of the policy. o The round table also recommended that Federal government could work with key stakeholders to redefine the size of subsidy so as to reduce its attractiveness to rent seekers. This could include refocusing it towards production of inputs or defining an exit strategy for government. o Utilise experiences and models in the market place to design a better subsidy programme that encourages and strengthens market forces. This could be built around models currently being implemented by NIRSAL, Propcom Mai-karfi, Cellulant and others and aim for PPP framework that delivers results to farmers. Strengthening multi stakeholder participation and involvement in policy formulation for the agricultural inputs sector/market o Towards this the round table agreed that FEPSAN strategy paper should be re-visited with a view to reviving conversation with federal government on the proposals already presented to government. The focus to be on how to support local production of fertiliser to meet the demand gap in the market Objective 2: Framework for engagement The participants agreed that there is value in further consultation to prepare quality papers that should inform policy engagement with governments Federal and State levels. The deliberations of the round table to be produced and circulated to all participants for comments and further refinement

13 The final report to be sent to Eng. O. Jatto - Director Federal Agriculture Inputs Department, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development as a first step towards seeking engagement A small working group to be established within June 2016 to identify and elaborate key issues for engagement. Volunteers to this small group will be constituted within the month. The staring points were identified as; o FEPSAN strategy paper with lead from FEPSAN o Design of a agriculture input financing with lead from NIRSAL o Proposal for an exit strategy/reduction of size of subsidy Propcom Mai-karfi will coordinate further consultative processes to take forward the engagement process between government and other agricultural input stakeholders.

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