Main findings. Food Consumption: globally satisfactory except in the Lake Chad basin and in certain pockets of Niger, Mali and Senegal.

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1 Cadre Harmonisé analysis and identification of zones at risk and food insecure populations in the Sahel and in West Africa Regional analysis of acute food insecurity Current Situation (March-May 2017) and Projected Situation (June-August 2017) Main findings Food Consumption: globally satisfactory except in the Lake Chad basin and in certain pockets of Niger, Mali and Senegal Livelihood Change: livelihoods assets and strategies are sustainable and protected, nonetheless they remain eroded in conflict areas in the Lake Chad Basin, the north of Mali, and in the Liptako Gourma neighboring areas (Burkina Faso-Mali, Niger) Nutritional situation: remains worrying in general following GAM rates above the crisis threshold in many regions in Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and in Burkina Faso, and above the emergency threshold in Chad and in North-East Nigeria Mortality Mortality data for children under 5 years-old in the 3 North-East Nigeria States are very worrying and call for an immediate response.. Results: Current analysis (March-May): around 9.6 million people need humanitarian assistance, among them 8.2 million are in phase 3 (Crisis), 1.4 million are in phase 4 (Emergency) and 44 thousand are in phase 5 (Famine). Projected analysis (June-August): around 13.8 million people need humanitarian assistance, among them 12.1 million in phase 3 (Crisis), 1.6 million in phase 4 (Emergency) et are in phase 5 (Famine). Main findings The agricultural campaign was globally satisfactory with a cereal production superior to the five-year average. Cereal production increased by 10% compared to the campaign and by 17.5% compared to the five-year average. However, slight decreases in cereal production were registered in The Gambia (-12.4%), in Liberia (-7.5%) and in Mauritania (-11.2%), compared to five-year average. Tubers production increased by 2.4% compared to the campaign and by 10% to compared to five-year average. The pastoral situation, pasture and watering conditions of livestock are average to satisfactory despite fodder deficits registered in a large part of the Sahelian belt notably in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and in Chad. Transhumance movements remain normal except in the fodder-deficit areas and conflict zones, especially in the Lake Chad basin, northern Mali and northwest Niger. Market functionality is satisfactory except in the Lake Chad basin due to civil insecurity. Cash crops prices are slightly higher compared to the 5-year averages. Concerning livestock markets, livestock prices for cattle and small ruminants are generally decreasing in the zone due to the decrease in Nigeria demand. The depreciation of the currencies in Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone and in Ghana, and the civil insecurity around the Lake Chad basin, constitute the principal factors affecting prices and flows between countries. In the East basin, this situation has caused a reversal of flows of cattle, poultry, onions and other cash crops between Nigeria and Niger. The nutritional situation during this post-harvest period remains worrying to critical in the Lake Chad basin, the north of Mali and in the three northeastern Nigeria States due to the deterioration of living conditions and persistent civil insecurity. In refugee and IDP areas as well as host communities areas, the situation is much more alarming with prevalence above the emergency threshold. The nutritional situation could deteriorate during the lean season in most of the Sahel countries. 1

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3 Factors causing acute food insecurity Hazards and vulnerability: civil insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin and North Mali continues to impact negatively food and nutrition security in the region. According to OCHA reporting (7th March 2017), there are 2.4 million people (including 1.77 million in North Nigeria) refugees and IDPs in the Lake Chad Basin (North-East of Nigeria, East of Niger in Diffa, Lac region, South and east of Chad), mainly due to the conflict in the north of Nigeria. The North of Mali crisis still hampers the return of the internal displaced people and of the refugees in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania. In total, there are close to 4,9 million IDPs and refugees in West Africa due to different conflicts and security instability within the Region and at the border of the Region. It should be noted that apart from the civil insecurity in Lake Chad Basin and North Mali, banditry and inter-communal conflicts are among the factors aggravating food and nutrition insecurity in the areas concerned. In addition, pockets of drought have been reported in Chad and severe flooding has occurred in Niger, Senegal and Mali, affecting a few cropping areas and degrading habitats. Food availability: Food availability is good throughout the region and is supported by the good harvests of 2016/2017. These harvests coupled with imports ensure a satisfactory supply of food stuffs in the markets. However, in conflict-areas, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin and surrounding areas, these food supplies could be reduced due to below-average production and poor functioning of markets. The state of pasture and water points will allow satisfactory feeding of livestock except in the pastoral areas of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, which have recorded low biomass production Access: Access to food is slightly impacted by prices globally rising in the region around 10%. This trend is mainly attributable to problems of currency depreciation specifically in Nigeria (+136%), Sierra Leone (+33%), Liberia (+36%) and Ghana (+29%). This applies mainly to staple cereals (sorghum, millet, maize, rice) and tubers. These results negatively impact poor households access to staple foods in these countries, mitigated only by the price of cash crops, which are generally stable in terms of good production and lower demand. Livestock prices are falling overall due to declining demand in Nigeria and the border closure of Libya, Chad, Niger and Nigeria around the Lake Chad area. This situation hampers the livestock trading with consequences on the reduction of livestock herders purchasing power. The purchasing power of poor and very poor households which is measured by calculating the terms of trade for livestock / cereals; cashew / cereals; cash crops/ cereals, is generally stable in the region with a deteriorating trend in Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Togo. Utilization: The nutritional status of the post-harvest period remains worrying: access to safe drinking water remains insufficient in most rural areas of the region. This situation prevents the optimal absorption of food to improve the nutritional status of children. Association of poor dietary practices with inappropriate healthcare expose mainly children under 5 years to a high risk of degradation of nutritional status. Stability: The seasonal activities of households will be normal in most areas. Food availability and access to food will remain stable between March and May 2017 given the general satisfactory level of agricultural production in the region, the continuation of off-season activities and the smooth functioning of the market. However, from June onwards with the beginning of the cropping season, the supply of some remote areas could be disrupted because of the worrying security situation in the Lake Chad basin, northern Mali and Liptako Gourma (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) due to the persistence of civil insecurity. This could disrupt stability, cereal flows and the functioning of markets. 3

4 Main results of the analysis How many areas are identified food and nutrition insecure and where are they located? In total 607 areas (administrative units) were analyzed within the 16 countries of the region (see table 1 below). It should be noted that due to lack of reliable data on food security outcomes, this round of CH analysis didn t cover Cote d Ivoire. 9,3% of the analyzed areas are classified in crisis or emergency. The current food security situation is severe in Nigeria notably in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States which count 17 areas in emergency while 30 others are in crisis. In addition, 10 other areas were also classified in crisis in Mali (1 area), Niger (5 areas) and Chad (4 areas). Table 1: Identification of the number of affected areas by phase for the current situation Number of areas for the current situation: March-April-May 2017 COUNTRY Areas not Areas analyzed Analyzed Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Benin Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Chad Côte d'ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo During the projected period, the food and nutrition situation would further deteriorate and would affect 14,8% of the analyzed areas. In Northeast Nigeria, 20 areas would be in emergency and 31 others in crisis. 17 areas in Chad, 6 in Senegal, 11 in Niger, 4 in Mali and 1 in Burkina Faso would equally reach crisis food insecurity level. Table 2: Identification of the number of affected areas by phase for the projected situation Number of areas for the projected situation: June-July-August 2017 COUNTRY Areas not Areas analyzed Analyzed Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Benin Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Chad Côte d'ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo

5 How many people are food and nutrition insecure? During the pre-lean season period (March-May 2017), the analysis revealed that about 9.7 million people are identified to be in crisis phase or worse within the 16 analyzed countries. Among these food insecure people, about 7 million are located in Nigeria of whom 44,000 are in famine and close to 1.4 million in emergency particularly in the 3 northeast States (Adamawa, Borno and Yobe). Populations are identified to be in emergency in Mali (1,400 people), in Niger (19,000 people) and in Chad (13,000 people). Populations in crisis were identified in each country (table 3). Table 3: Estimates of food insecure population in Sahel and Gulf of Guinea countries for the current situation (March May 2017) COUNTRIES CURRENT SITUATION : March - May 2017 Population for the analyzed Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Population in areas Phase 3 to 5 Benin Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Chad Côte d'ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo During the 2017 lean season (June-August), about 13.8 million people (table 4) will likely be affected by crisis and emergency food and nutrition insecurity forms in the 16 analyzed countries. The situation would still remain very challenging in Nigeria where 8.9 million people will likely be affected by food insecurity including 50,000 people in famine in the 3 states (Adamawa, Borno and Yobe) and 1.4 million in emergency. Food and nutrition emergency situation will likely affect Burkina Faso (5,500 people), Mali (close to 22,000 people), Mauritania (29,000 people) and Niger (close to people). Furthermore, 12.1 million people are identified to be in crisis in the 16 analyzed countries. Table 4: Estimates of food insecure population in Sahel and Gulf of Guinea countries for the projected situation (June August 2017) COUNTRIES Population for the analyzed areas PROJECTED SITUATION : June - August 2017 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Population in Phase 3 to 5 Benin Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Chad Côte d'ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali

6 Mauritania Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Léone Togo Methodology and challenges of the analysis Cadre Harmonisé analytical process is based on an analytical framework built on four indicators called food security outcomes (food consumption, livelihood change, nutritional status and mortality) which describe the food security at the household or area level; and on which contributing factors (hazards and vulnerability, food availability, food access, food utilization including water and stability) are inferred. This analytical framework allows analysts to agree on the interactions between the different dimensions of food security. The present results are drawn from national analyses which were held in different period of times: (i) Gulf of Guinea countries from 20 to 24 February 2017, (ii) Nigeria from 27 February to 10 March 2017 (iii) Sahel countries from 06 to 11 March 2017, (iv) excluding Mali from 13 to 18 March National analyses were conducted by national staffs with facilitation by regional staffs from CILSS and its partners (WFP, FAO, FEWS NET, OXFAM, ACF, Save the Children, GSU/IPC). Due to non-availability of recent data, Côte d Ivoire was not analyzed. Data used outcome indicators during national analyses come mainly from food security and vulnerability surveys (food consumption score, household dietary diversity score, reduced coping strategies index), HEA Outcome Analysis (Survival Deficit and Livelihood Protection Deficit), nutrition surveys and agropastoral evaluation reports, and reports from various departments and agencies involved in food security monitoring and analysis. It should be noted, that recent surveys or sentinel sites assessments were undertaken in Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal, Mali leading to availability of key evidences for outcome indicators (FCS, HDDS, rcsi, Livelihoods-based CSI and MUAC). This experience is worth replicating in all countries in order to overcome the lack of data during the analyses. In addition, the development of HEA baselines and Outcome Analysis in coastal countries have increased the availability of evidences in certain areas in various countries including Cabo Verde, Guinea, Togo and The Gambia leading to improved analyses in these countries. Most of the contributing factors came from reports by Pluri-disciplinary Working Groups (PWG) or similar national agencies. In some countries like Benin, Chad, Ghana and Togo, recent direct evidences for outcome indicators were not available; caloric proxy combined with recent evidences on contributing factors were used to conduct the analyses. Beyond the challenge in having recent direct evidences on Outcome indicators in many countries, issues were noted in data processing in some countries and a misunderstanding of the nutrition guidance for the utilization of the lean season GAM prevalence series. In this context, capacity building of national and regional analysts in these specific areas would be of interest. Recommendations to Governments and their partners At the end of the analyses, the regional technical committee made the following recommendations: To CILSS, ECOWAS and UEMOA member States Increase the quantity and the quality of emergency response interventions in Lake Chad basin areas (Nigeria- Niger-Chad), in Niger, in Mali, in Burkina Faso, in Senegal and in Chad; Undertake and enhance resilience interventions for food insecure population notably for people identified to be in phase 2 stress or phase 1 minimal Improve the availability of and access to livestock feeding in fodder deficit areas; 6

7 Plan in national budgets the adequate resources to undertake agricultural and nutrition surveys and the organization of Cadre Harmonisé national workshops; Set up formal Cadre Harmonisé national analysis units; Continue and enhance malnutrition prevention and treatment actions especially in areas where alarming prevalence are reported. To Financial Partners Provide emergency food assistance to populations facing food crisis to prevent malnutrition and deaths in the Lake Chad basin and in Northern parts of Niger; Provide technical and financial support to undertake regular agricultural and nutrition surveys to inform Cadre Harmonisé analyses; Provide technical and financial support to food and nutrition insecurity information systems for data collection and analysis and information sharing. To CILSS Support the technical capacity building of Cadre Harmonisé National Analysis team members in order to improve the prevention of food and nutrition crises; Provide technical support to food and nutrition insecurity information systems for data collection and analysis and information sharing. Contacts Sy Martial Traoré Market Analysis Specialist, Head of DSAM Tel. (227) / GSM : (227) m.traore@agrhymet.ne Issoufou Alfari Head of Information and Research Department AGRHYMET Regional Center/CILSS Tel. (227) / GSM : (227) i.alfari@agrhymet.ne Baoua Issoufou Cadre Harmonisé Analysis Specialist Tel. (227) / GSM : (227) I.baoua@agrhymet.ne Technical Partners Financial Partners 7