Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative: balanced top-down and bottom-up approaches

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative: balanced top-down and bottom-up approaches Hanoi, Viet Nam 4 March 2011 Chanon Thaicharoen Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) Mekong River Commission 1

2 Outlines CCAI Setup and Framework Adaptation Planning Process Key Features for Implementation in On-going Adaptation Activities Local Demonstration Site Activity Basin-wide assessment Way Forwards 2

3 Climate Disaster in Floods in Australia Volcano in Iceland Heat wave in Russia Floods in China Floods in Pakistan Mekong Basin Drought in early 2010???? 3

4 Climate Change Projection in The Mekong Basin in 2030 (Source: Eastham et al.,) 2008 Basin wide temperature increase of 0.79 C, with greater increases in the northern part; Average annual precipitation increase of 20 cm, (equivalent to 15.3%) predominantly in wet season; Increase in total annual runoff of 21%, but strong water stress during dry season remains in some areas such as North-Eastern Thailand and Tonle Sap; Increase in dry season precipitation in northern part and a decrease in dry season precipitation in southern part of the basin; Increase in flooding in all parts of the basin, with the greatest impact in downstream part of the Mekong mainstream. 4

5 What are the impacts in the LMB? - Intensification of existing challenges: more frequent and intensive extreme events (flood, drought, saline intrusion etc.) - This will affect natural and socio-economic systems and development; livelihoods of people, especially the poor & marginal groups (women, children & elders, ethnic minorities) - Most likely impacted: Wetland & biodiversity in Mekong flood-plain; Fisheries & Agriculture - The Mekong Delta & its coastal areas: one of the most vulnerable areas with specific impacts of sea level rise, land loss, saline intrusion and more disasters

6 Low water & drought in Mekong early 2010: What next??

7 Gongouqiao Xiaowan Manwan Dochashan Nuozhadu Jinghong Pak Beng Luang Prabang Pak Lay Xiyaburi Sanakram Pak Chom Ban Kum Lat Sua Donsahong Struteng Sambor Mawan1993 ( 257 MCM) Duchashan 2003 (367 MCM) 2008 Jinghong 2008 (249 MCM) Existing Ongoing Planned Xiaowan 2012 (9,900 MCM) Nuozhadu 2014 (12,300 MCM) MYANMAR 7

8 Climate change challenges in the Lower Mekong Basin - Most of the negative impacts will affect all Mekong countries, will overlay to and combined with the impacts of rapid development to the environment and people livelihood in the basin - Need for both regional strategy and effective adaptation practice and actions which address the specific needs at national and local levels - MRC CCAI has an important role to consolidate different approaches, bring the regional concerns to each of the member countries and the local communities

9 What is CCAI? A collaborative regional initiative of Lower Mekong Basin countries aiming to support the countries in adapting to the impacts and new challenges of climate change through improved planning, implementation and learning Location Lower Mekong Basin 4 Member Countries Involve the Upper Mekong partners: China and Myanmar CCAI Phasing: Long-term initiative (with three 5-years phases, up to 2025) Linked into the cycle MRC s Strategic Planning process In January 2011, The MRC Council has approved the CCAI Framework ( ) confirming a long term policy commitment of the Member Countries on climate change and adaptation for Lower Mekong Basin

10 Flood Management and Mitigation Drought Management Agriculture, Irrigation & Forestry Navigation Hydropower Fisheries Tourism The 2 nd International Conference on IWRM Basin Basin Development Planning Environment Information and Knowledge Management Integrated Capacity Building Water Utilization The Mekong CCAI is a cross-cutting initiative under IWRM umbrella in Mekong context

11 National and Regional Priorities Policy frameworks to facilitate and guide adaptation Tools for assessing impacts and vulnerability Adaptation options for priority sectors and areas Pilots and demonstration of adaptation planning and implementation Monitoring and reporting on the status of climate change and adaptation Capacity building and training Climate change issues in the LMB and gap analysis 11

12 Goal and Objective of CCAI The GOAL An economically prosperous, socially just, environmentally sound Mekong River Basin responsive and adapting to the challenges induced by climate change The OBJECTIVE Climate change adaptation planning and implementation is guided by improved strategy and plans at various levels and in priority locations throughout the Lower Mekong Basin 12

13 Outcomes and Outputs Climate Change Adaptation Planning and Implementation Improved Capacity to Manage and Adapt to Climate Change Strategies and Plans for Climate Change Adaptation Regional Exchange, Collaboration and Learning Methods and tools for assessment and adaptation planning and Climate Change Database for the Mekong Basin Demonstration site/project for each member country for implementation of adaptation activities at local level Basin-wide demonstration activities for adaptation in key sectors or transboundary issues Lesson learned of demonstration activities for replication and upscaling in local, sector and national development planning Institutional capacity strengthened in policy making and planning for climate change adaptation in LMB countries Enhancement of capacity in using methods and tools for adaptation planning and implementation Enhancement of capacity in monitoring/reporting the climate change and adaptation in the region and The Mekong Panel of Climate Change (MPCC) is established Regional and National policy frameworks to facilitate and guide adaptation and implementation System of monitoring and reporting on the status of climate change and adaptation CCAI communication plan for raising awareness, sharing information and knowledge on climate change and adaptation Agreements and productive collaboration with CCAI core implementing partners on climate change adaptation related issues Institutional arrangement and implementation of CCAI Regular monitoring and evaluation and reporting to MRC Joint Committee and Council, Donor and Core Implementing partners of CCAI progress with revision and improvement 13 Fund raising for the periods of and

14 Implementation Strategy Partnership approach The line agencies in particular the national CC focal points, the NMCs and local government at demonstration sites CCAI technical working groups and core implementing partners - CSIRO, SEA START, WWF, JIID, WA, CARE, SEI, etc. The Mekong Panel on Climate Change and the wider network of technical organisations The donors supporting the CCAI with technical and financial inputs AusAID, Danida, Luxamburg, Sida, Finland.. Dialogue partners: China and Myanmar MRC cross-cutting approach Joint Implementation with relevant MRC programmes EP, IKMP, ICBP, BPD A Network with adaptation projects CCAI 14

15 CCAI Phasing Phase I Phase II Phase III Top-down Top-down Demonstration Replication Devolution Bottom-up Bottom-up 15

16 Change in mean annual temperature (ºC) and precipitation(%) during compared to The 2 nd International Conference on Temperature Rainfall 16

17 mean monthly flow (m 3 /s) The 2 nd International Conference on Increase Decrease Delay Change in flow due to upper Mekong dams - without climate change Change in flow with climate change for different periods up to 2050 (Scenario A2, ECHAM4) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Baseline Scenario Mean Monthly Flow of Mekong at Kratie 5,000 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

18 CC and Dev. Impacts on LMB Projection on Flow Regimes Rainfall increases mm/yr during wet season and 1-2 mm/yr considering annual rainfall Temperature increases about 0.9 C by 2050 Under CC, river flow increases in average of 2-11% and 18-40% in wet and dry season, respectively. (6-16% annually) Development helps increasing river flow in dry season of 30-60% but reducing flow of 8-17% in wet season resulting in 3-8% decrease annually Salinity intrusion will increase in Mekong Delta under Sea Level Rise Uncertainty still remains CC projections and modeling, impact on ecosystem, people livelihoods, etc. 18

19 Adaptation Challenge Uncertainties in scenarios, models and climate change impacts on different sectors and communities Different socio-economic priorities and adaptive capacity among the Lower Mekong Member Countries Limited understanding or different interpretation on combined impact of future development scenario and climate change scenario Poverty, land use change and limited funding put the most vulnerable people to climate change at increasing risk Cooperation of the upper Mekong Countries such as China and Myanmar

20 Coping Range (APF)

21 Adaptation Planning Process Scoping the adaptation project Vulnerability assessment Identification of adaptation options and strategy Implementation of adaptation options Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Building Scoping the Adaptation Strategy/Project Exposure Potential Impacts Sensitivity Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Identification of Adaptation Options and Development of Adaptation Strategy Monitoring and Evaluation of Adaptation Implementation Implementation of Adaptation Options 21

22 Stakeholders Involvement List of stakeholders at national and local levels (government agencies, local authorities, NGOs, private sector, community-based organizations, researchers) Process to engage these stakeholders at different stages of adaptation planning starting from scoping, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation planning and implementation Capacity-building to improve knowledge in effective participation Gender Mainstreaming and Responsiveness Gender analysis to understand climate change impacts on women and men, their different roles in coping with climate risks; Involvement and empowerment of women at different steps and levels in adaptation planning and decision-making; Ensuring that the initiative benefits men and women equally, in accordance with their different needs, and with the input and equal participation of men and women at all levels 22

23 Key Priorities of CCAI Basin wide, sector and transboundary assessments; Wetland and ecosystem Flood and Drought risks and vulnerability Hydropower issue A network of local adaptation planning and implementation projects for learning, exchange and monitoring of progress Projects established with LMB member government agencies with direct technical and financial support from the CCAI, Projects run by core implementing partners whose climate change adaptation activities are supplemented and enriched by the CCAI. Projects run by the wider CCAI partners who come together and share experiences on a regular basis (at least every three years). These may even be drawn from areas in the Mekong basin outside of the LMB. 23

24 Key Priorities of CCAI The Mekong Panel on Climate Change Reporting on progress on climate change impacts and adaptation Facilitate sharing of knowledge in the Mekong Basin Facilitate capacity development on climate change and adaptation Mekong state of climate change adaptation report Serves as a foundation analysis and information for Mekong adaptation strategy and action plan Mekong adaptation strategy and action plan Based on the Mekong state of climate change adaptation report, experience gained in base-wide assessments and demonstration projects, Modelling of climate change impacts at basin wide and specific sub-basin, sectors, and ecosystems A number of guidelines will be developed include guidelines on adaptation planning, guidelines for integrating adaptation into SEA and EIA; guidelines for sector specific adaptation plans and design standards; guidelines for transboundary natural systems. 24

25 CCAI Demo Sites Cambodia Prey Veng (Peam Ro, Pream Chor, Preah Sdach and Me Sang Districts) Lao PDR Savannakhet (Champhone District) Thailand Nam Yang Basin (Tributary to Chi River) Vietnam Kien Giang 25

26 Lao PDR Demonstration Site Highly vulnerable to both flood and drought Poor farmers are expected to be most vulnerable groups under the climate change and variability Some field surveys have been done to collect relevant information with preliminary risk assessment, community participations, and hazard mapping Preliminary response from the local Extension of irrigation canal in Kangkok village to diversify agricultural option (for dry season rice cropping) Analysis of soil textures and experiment of plants of various types in the silt-covered area at Nakatang village (defined as a longterm activities for climate change impact) Introduction of flood tolerant rice and short season rice varieties in Ta Leow village. 26

27 Climate Change Adaptation Demonstration Site Champhone District of Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR To increase resilience and adaptive capacity of authorities and local community through the process of assessment, awareness raising, and introduction/implementation of adaptation options Key Interesting Issues; Supporting capacity building training and climate change mainstreaming in local, provincial, and national planning and decision making process Conducting study of potential climate change impacts, risks and vulnerability assessment. Raising awareness of climate change and its impacts. Demonstrating implementation of adaptation options 27

28 Field Visit and Community Participatory 28

29 The 2nd International Conference on Flood Tolerant Rice Varieties in the target villages 29

30 Extension of the irrigation canal for dry season crop 30

31 Basin-wide Assessment Basin-wide Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Wetlands of the LMB for Adaptation Planning Study Period ~ 9 Months until October 2011 ICEM Worldfish IUCN Lao SEA START 1 st Expert Advisory Workshop have been organized in March 1, 2011 gathering representatives from Member Countries, Development partners, experts and specialists. Selection of 2 sites for case study in each country 31

32 Way Forwards A regional network of local demonstration projects is a key foundation Basin-wide, sector and transboundary assessments on Wetland and ecosystem, flood and drought risks, hydropower. The Mekong Panel on Climate Change needs to be established as high priority Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Expansion of network and partnerships with core organizations, development and implementing organizations, NGOs, etc. Continuation of capacity building & gender mainstreaming 32

33 Global Phenomenon Regional Collaboration Local Action Thank you Mekong River Commission Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative 33