Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices
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1 Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Wolfram Schlenker Columbia University and NBER The Near-term Impacts of Climate Change on Investors May 2, 2017 Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 1 / 20
2 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 2 / 20
3 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 3 / 20
4 Introduction: Agricultural Production Agricultural (green) revolution Before 1950 Increase in production through increase in growing area Yields (output per area) rather constant After 1950 Increase in production mostly through higher yields Growing area increased moderately Four commodity crops are the basis for caloric consumption Maize (corn), wheat, rice and soybeans 75% of the calories humans consume Either directly or indirectly (used as feedstock) Converting production quantity into common unit: calories Calories / bushel for each crop Instead of trillions of calories: billon of people on 2000 calorie / day diet Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 4 / 20
5 World Caloric Production: Four Staple Commodities Source: Foreign Agricultural Service Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 5 / 20
6 US Market Share Source: Foreign Agricultural Service Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 6 / 20
7 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 7 / 20
8 Link between Weather and US Corn Yields Schlenker & Roberts (PNAS, 2009): Statistical analysis Eastern United States Corn (biggest staple commodities in US) 40% of the world s production in each crop Panel of county-level yields State-specific time trends to capture technological progress Fixed e ect to capture di erences in space Fine-scale weather (daily temperature / precip on 2.5mile grid) Roughly 2000 counties x 56 years ( ) Model accounts for Flexible functional form in temperature Quadratic in total precipitation Highly asymmetric relationship Decline above optimal temperature order of magnitude of incline below it Degree Days 29 C(84 F) Count how much and how long temperatures exceed 29 C(84 F) Beng 10 days 1C above is same as being 1 day 10C above! Extreme heat predicted to increase nonlinearly Attributable in large parts of anthropogenic influences Fisher & Knutti (NCC 2015) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 8 / 20
9 Corn Yields: Importance of Extreme Heat Source: Schlenker & Roberts (PNAS, 2009) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 9 / 20
10 Extreme Heat Versus Source: D Agostino & Schlenker (2016) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 10 / 20
11 Can Model from Explain Last 4 Years? Source: D Agostino & Schlenker (2016) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 11 / 20
12 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 12 / 20
13 Supply / Demand Elasticities for Calories Roberts & Schlenker (AER, 2013) Demand and supply elasticities of storable commodities Common unit: calories from maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans Traditional Approach Regress supply on expected price (futures price) Concern: Futures price is endogenous Example: Soybean Rust (Pest) Farmers anticipate soybean rust (yield loss) Endogenous response: decrease planting area (other crops more profitable) Futures market: increase in futures price Lower quantity and higher price? Movement along demand curve Previous estimates find inelastic supply, yet simulations use positive elasticity Identification of Supply Past yield shocks shift expected price Instrument futures price in supply equation Significant supply (0.11) and demand elasticity (-0.05) US biofuel mandate Diverts 5% of calories from 4 staple into fuel Responsible for 20-30% price increase Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 13 / 20
14 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 14 / 20
15 Temperature Trend ( ) in Historic Std. Deviation Lobell, Schlenker & Costa-Roberts (Science, 2011) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 15 / 20
16 Country-Crop Specific Temperature Trends ( ) Lobell, Schlenker & Costa-Roberts (Science, 2011) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 16 / 20
17 Country-Crop Specific Temperature Trends ( ) Lobell, Schlenker & Costa-Roberts (Science, 2011) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 17 / 20
18 Predicted Impact of Observed Trend Combined Price E ect: 18.9% (no CO 2 fertilization), 6.4% (including CO 2 fertilization) Lobell, Schlenker & Costa-Roberts (Science, 2011) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 18 / 20
19 Outline 1 US is Biggest Producer of Basic Calories 2 Extreme Heat Crucial Driver of Agricultural Production 3 Small Production Changes Translate into Large Price Swings 4 Observed Climate Change Already Has Observable E ect 5 Limited Innovation in Sensitivity to Weather Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 19 / 20
20 Costly Adaptation to Extreme Heat Tremendous progress in average yields (3-fold increase since 1950) No improvement in sensitivity to extreme heat Crops as sensitive in 2010 as in 1950 Sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit got worse (Lobell et al, Science 2014) Possible impediment to adaptation: subsidized crop insurance Farmers don t have full incentive to deal with extreme They will be bailed out to some extend Catastrophic level (50% decline) free to farmers Who su ers from climate change? Given US market size and correlation of shocks over Corn Belt Production declines more than o set by price increase Nature is doing what government tried for decades (supply restrictions) Farmers likely see higher profits Consumers su er through higher prices (especially internationally) E ects on conflict and migration (next talk) Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia & NBER) Weather, Climate, Agricultural Output and Prices Agricultural Impacts 20 / 20
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