Capacity Building at Lesotho Meteorological Service to Improve the National Early Warning System and Facilitate Adaptation to Climate Change

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1 Capacity Building at Lesotho Meteorological Service to Improve the National Early Warning System and Facilitate Adaptation to Climate Change Basotho children in traditional attire during a national celebration This case study: - Corresponds well to the WMO 8-Step Capacity Development Model and exhibits sustainability - Highlights the role of Lesotho Meteorological Service (LMS) in responding to a national and international priority requirement for Early Warning System (EWS) and Adaptation; - Builds the development of the LMS capability around the requirement for climate services provided through the LMS and its regional (SADC-CSC) and global linkages (WMO) - Shows a role WMO can play to assist LMS (country assessment) in identifying requirements - Includes as part of the project funding integration of EWS for Climate Change into the national planning process. - Shows how capacities are designed to build upon existing capacities for sustainability Lesotho is a small land-locked country embedded in South Africa with over 80% of the country with an elevation above 5,906 ft (1800 meters) above sea level. The rivers flowing across the country are a natural resource and economic asset providing the country s hydro-electric power. The Orange River rises in the Drakensberg mountains in northeastern Lesotho and flows across the entire length of the country before exiting to South Africa at the Mohale's Hoek District in the southwest. The Caledon River marks the northwestern part of the border with South Africa. Otherwise the country is poor in other natural resources and less than 9% of the country suitable for crop production. Background Lesotho is categorized as a least developed country with a continental temperate climate that is marked by four clearly identifiable seasons. With an elevation of approximately 6,000 feet above sea level, the country s topography is characterized by hills to the east and tapering to valleys in the west with erratic climatic conditions that have greatly limited human settlement to low lying regions estimated at nearly two million inhabitants. 75% of the population falls within the poor or Page 1

2 very-poor category with the majority dependent on subsistence agriculture as a main source of income. With this dependence on rain-fed agriculture, the livelihood of the people of Lesotho is highly vulnerable to land degradation and the country's irregular precipitation and temperature patterns. Even then, only less than 5% of the population produce enough cereals to meet domestic needs and the bulk of food consumption needs are purchased rendering households with low purchasing power as highly vulnerable to crop production disruptions brought about by variations in climate. Poor people are the most vulnerable and are the least capable of coping when these disruptions occur. This vulnerability is increased by high HIV-AIDs infection rates reaching 30% among the productive year age group. Annual precipitation rates vary considerably from year to year with few similarities between any two years. 85% of Lesotho s average annual rainfall of 700 mm occurs between October and April, with higher averages of 1200 mm recorded in the mountain region, and low averages of 500 mm recorded in the Senqu River Valley. The average annual rainfall varies from area to area from as low as 500mm in the Senqu River Valley to as high as 1,200 mm in a few localities in the northern and eastern mountain terrain border. Maximum and minimum temperatures recorded at various locations show a wide variation of climate in the country. January has the highest mean maximum temperatures throughout the country, ranging from 20 C in high altitudes to 32 C in the lowlands. On the other hand, mean minimum temperatures of around 0 C are common in June, the coldest month, with the lowlands recording -1 C to -3 C and the mountains with temperatures dropping to as low as -6 C to -8.5 C. The 2002 famine was attributed to several consecutive and severe droughts that mark the highest occurrence of dry spells over a twenty-year period in the last 200 years. Droughts result in poor crop harvests and large stock losses to rural farmers, exacerbating poverty. Sudden snowfalls, strong winds, and floods occur occasionally with devastating social impacts. This project will address urgent and immediate adaptation needs in Lesotho which ratified the UNFCCC in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2000 and is classified among the non-annex 1 parties and a Least Developed Country. The country submitted its NAPA in 2007 and is eligible to benefit from the LDC Fund for the implementation of priority measures identified in its NAPA. This project is submitted as the first NAPA implementation project, and seeks to implement Lesotho s third and fourth priority as identified in the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA). Capacity Development Analysis The WMO Capacity Development 8-Step Model will be applied to project activities to show how closely the project adheres to the model and exhibit the sustainability of the project over time. Objective STEP 1 The project has a clear set of requirements outlined for an improved Early Warning System (EWS) and integration of climate information in national development plans to mitigate the impacts of climate variations and change. To build Lesotho s capacity for monitoring and predicting climate change impacts, delivering timely early warning advisories for extreme weather and climate events, and integrating climate information into national policy for planning for adaptation to climate change. The project promises to enhance the capacities of LMS in national hydro-meteorological observing systems, enhance skill to interpret and down-scale regional climate information provided by the SADC-CSC into Lesotho s specific national situation and facilitate the development of policies that will enable the integration of climate information in national plans. Page 2

3 STEP 2 The country s capabilities were evaluated against the requirements to establish a baseline in terms of Human Resources, infrastructure, institutional and procedural capabilities With the exception of its water resources, Lesotho is a resource-poor country with non-economic mineral deposits, and less than 9% of its area consisting of arable land at the same time compounded by a growing food deficit and very little remaining vegetation cover and serious ongoing land degradation. Crop production is limited to a narrow belt in the western lowlands and foothills characterized by steep slopes with severe soil erosion and land degradation, as well as low and variable rainfall. The high altitude plateaus and mountains are only suitable for grazing. The LMS is the national agency charged with the mandate of meeting hydro-meteorological services requirements for a strong EWS, however its existing capacity falls far too short in all areas of capacity including human resources, infrastructure, institutional and process. STEP 3 Gaps were identified and analyzed in terms of the capacities of the LMS of Lesotho to meet the requirements in human resources, infrastructure, institutional and process capacities. The requirements outlined in Step 1 above must be supported by accurate, reliable, qualitycontrolled meteorological data and information with adequate capacity in the LMS to generate information and products to support appropriate early warning systems. WMO s high priority programmes such as the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services, the implementation of the WIGOS/WIS programme, the requirement for NMHSs to obtain QMS certification in aviation services and Disaster Risk Reduction will collectively contribute towards the strengthening the EWS by LMS. Other important factors include successful land reform, limits to population growth, the availability of agricultural land, and the effectiveness of research and extension services. The following capacity gaps were identified and analyzed: Human Resources and Infrastructure capacities : While Lesotho s meteorological observation network consists of 37 climate and 53 rainfall stations, it was not designed to address all the weather and climate variables currently understood as being essential for the implementation of effective climate change early warning systems. Its capabilities are limited to the provision of basic weather forecasting services and even then, its forecasts have high levels of spatial and temporal uncertainties under extreme weather and climate conditions. A recent audit of the climate station observation network in Lesotho supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UNFCCC concluded that its network faced many challenges including obsolete and unserviceable equipment, human errors at monitoring stations, vandalism, poor communication facilities, and poor data archiving. In addition, the network lacks certain essential climate equipment that facilitate accurate climate monitoring and prediction as outlined in the Revised UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines on Global Climate Change Observing Systems. The complex weather patterns that result from climate change dictates that the network should have a comprehensive makeover that should include rehabilitation of existing instruments and installation of new ones. In addition, human resources (observers and forecasters) skills must be enhanced to effectively perform the tasks required to improve Lesotho s Early Warning System and reduce the adverse impacts of climate variations and facilitate the integration of climate information into National Development Plans and build resilience to future more severe climate change impacts as projected by the IPCC Assessment Reports.. Institutional and Procedural capacities: The importance of up-date and reliable meteorological and hydrological data has long been recognized in Lesotho. In developing its NAPA, Lesotho undertook to bolster its early warning system by upgrading technical capacities to monitor extreme climate and weather events. Realizing that the impacts of climatic hazards are closely associated to poverty, Lesotho has adopted a livelihoods-based approach to climate change and Page 3

4 emergency adaptation interventions. However, the implementation of this approach will require the establishment of a livelihoods and environmental database and the acquisition of software to support ongoing livelihoods and environmental vulnerability monitoring and assessments. Although climate variability is recognized as a potential limiting factor on socio-economic development in Lesotho, no systematic effort has been made until now to integrate future climate change scenarios into policymaking. Capacity analyses undertaken during NAPA development as well as during the NCSA note that there is a need to develop an integrated policy and legislative framework, integrate environmental agreements into national and local government plans, define institutional mandates, and improve institutional capacities for implementation. The Lesotho NAPA lists inadequate institutional and human capacity as the key barrier to the implementation of effective climate change adaptation programmes. For example, there is limited capacity in climate modeling, prediction and reporting/data presentation within LMS and among sectoral partners; limited modeling skills and low capacity for vulnerability assessments and risk analyses mongst adaptation-related institutions; inadequate skills for climate network operation and maintenance at LMS, and limited mapping and GIS skills. This puts the LMS and the regional climate monitoring institution, SADC-CSC at the center of the project and the need to strengthen capacities at the LMS to meet the objective of the project. STEP 4 A project (strategic plan) was developed to address the gaps and improve the EWS. The plan was set up in coordination with national planning authorities and partner organizations to facilitate the integration of climate information for protective adaptation into national development planning. Project Summary Project Components Expected Outcomes Expected Outputs LDCF Cofinancing 1. Climate monitoring, predicting and early warning Improved reliability of hydro-climatic data An upgraded and operational climate monitoring network 537, , Science based Climate Change Adaptation Policy and planning Stronger capacity for resilient development planning Policies or plans in vulnerable sectors that integrate climate change concerns 452, , Local adaptation National policy making is informed by best practice and local demonstration Best practices for resilient rural development demonstrated and adopted 375, , Public awareness and education Increased public engagement and endogenous capacity to manage climate change impacts Awareness campaign implemented Climate change integrated into curricula 177, , Monitoring & Evaluation 50, , Project Management 143, ,000 Page 4

5 The project is being implemented in 3 pilot sites, selected as being representative of country conditions. Evidence from this project as well as from the Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) and other ongoing adaptation initiatives will be gathered, and serve as input into the development of recommendations on proactive adaptation. Project Rationale The project seeks to respond to these barriers by building the capacity of Lesotho to formulate and implement effective proactive adaptation responses to climate change, while dealing with its immediate impacts. As a result of stronger monitoring and early warning capacity, human losses and disasters will be averted, while the management of natural resources (land, forests, water and biological diversity) will be undertaken in a more resilient and sustainable manner. In addition, the application of best local adaptation technologies in Lesotho will serve to inform future policy development. These benefits will be achieved through the implementation of a set of activities divided into 4 inter-related components, including a knowledge management component. While components 1, 2 and 4 are essentially targeted at national level conditions and stakeholders, each component will benefit from activities undertaken within Component 3, which is concerned with the application or dissemination of on-the-ground local adaptation technologies. National Stakeholders This is a multi-agency project at the national institutional level that will involve the formulation of policy and institutional capacity strengthening to enable coordinated multiagency climate change monitoring and information management and response systems. The following agencies have been identified as direct beneficiaries of capacity development efforts and/or participants in project activities: National Institution Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Departments of Crops, Agricultural Research, and Agricultural Planning Ministry of Health and Social Welfare Environmental Health; The Prime Ministers Office Disaster management Authority, Food and Nutrition Coordinating Office; Ministry of Finance and Development Planning Division of Environmental Health, Department of Rural Water Supply The Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Culture the National Environmental Secretariat; The Ministry of Forestry and Land Reclamation the Department of Soil and Water Conservation The Ministry of Natural Resources Lesotho Meteorological Services, the Department of Water Affairs (Wetlands Unit), and Rural Water Supplies; Role and Contribution to the project Contribution for crop modeling towards vulnerability mapping, beneficiaries of training on climate risk management mainstreaming, research into resilient crop and livestock opportunities Contribution to vulnerability mapping, beneficiaries of training, Coordination, mainstreaming, participation in training, participation in vulnerability mapping, development of climate policy, revision of disaster management plans; early warning system Participation in training, mainstreaming and development of climate policy, coordination with other projects Beneficiaries of training and participation in pilot site activities for health monitoring Beneficiaries of training; awareness raising, participation in policy development and mainstreaming Participation in pilot activities, implementation of sustainable land management practices and antierosion activities, monitoring Beneficiaries of training; overall coordination and oversight of project activities; provision of climate data for vulnerability mapping and research; early warning system; implementation of pilot activities towards water management. Component 1: Climate monitoring, prediction and early warning. This component aims at developing Lesotho s capacity to understand climate risks, to monitor climate variability and to forecast key climate variables in order to ensure continued productivity at local and national Page 5

6 levels. As a first crucial step, the rehabilitation of the early warning infrastructure, through the acquisition or refurbishment of weather stations and data analysis equipment, along with the appropriate training of its staff, will be undertaken to ensure a thorough coverage of the country. This activity will enhance the EWS in the reliability and usability of climate data and information and will be crucial to a number of other climate change adaptation initiatives that are ongoing in the country as a means of promoting proactive adaptation. In order to provide the basis for integration of climate data into sector policymaking, key LMS and sector ministries will be supported through targeted training and the provision of methodological tools. Training in GIS vulnerability mapping, climate-based modeling applications, and climate risk management will also be implemented through this component, while serving as a support to activities in other components. The use of enhanced early warning systems will be tested in three pilot sites selected for the project. This activity will include the provision of climate information adapted to the needs of local stakeholders and existing agricultural extension services. The strengthening of Lesotho s climate monitoring and forecasting capacity will serve as a cornerstone for future development planning through the establishment of protocols for data exchange among ministries, as well as through the development of a cadre of experts in climate vulnerability in the country who will continue to inform sector and local planning. Africa Desk Capacity Development Climate Programme, NOAA/USA This component of the project which will develop capacity of LMS staff to enhance their capability to downscale regional climate products will build upon the ongoing Africa Desk Capacity Development Climate Programme by NOAA, USA. This training programme at NOAA s NCEP sponsors climate scientists from RA-I countries where they initially participate in the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Training Program at the African Desk in USA for a period of four months funded by NOAA. This part of the training would be followed immediately by government secondment to regional climate early-response institutions (ICPAC, SADC-CSC, ACMAD) to gain regional experience before returning to their home countries to assist in downscaling broader, regional climate forecasts to specific country situations in their social, cultural, political, economic, and geographic context. The Africa Desk Climate programme is an achievement for Africa with a growing number of trained climate scientists now able to participate in Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) periodically conducted by these regional climate institutions in the preparation of consensus seasonal climate outlooks ahead of seasonal rains and inform governments on DRR and preparedness. Component 2: Climate Change Policy and planning. Building upon and in continuation of - the activities undertaken under Component 1, This component targets policy makers for the development of climate-proof policies using the best available knowledge and innovative methodologies. Activities in this component provide the basis for the development of a Climate Change Adaptation Policy for Lesotho that will determine future orientations for the integration of adaptation and resilience issues into the country s development at all levels. An inter-ministerial process will serve as a platform for integrating climate considerations into various planning efforts. Sector-specific training and methodologies will be developed to ensure that climate change risks and opportunities are well included into key vulnerable plans such as the Agriculture Policy, Water Policy, Land Use and Environment Policy and Energy Policy. The work of the Ministerial Conference on Meteorology (AMCOMET) and the recently adopted Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe will be an added asset to this component and provide the enabling environment for enhancing policy and planning for Lesotho to adapt to current variations in climate and build resilience to future climate change. Component 3: Local adaptation technologies, knowledge and know-how. Component 3 is designed to simultaneously address urgent and immediate adaptation needs at the local level and promote science-based policy making through the demonstration of technologies, knowledge and know-how. Key adaptation measures will be implemented on a pilot basis with the support of and to the direct benefit of local communities in the three pilot districts. These measures will primarily address land degradation (sustainable agriculture, pasture rehabilitation and management and anti-erosive measures), and water resource depletion (water harvesting, irrigation, collaborative water management). In addition, communities will benefit from an updated early warning system via the rehabilitation of local communication networks and the use of Page 6

7 indigenous media, such as community radio and SMS (see component 1). This flow of information will allow for a more successful planning of cropping seasons, in accordance with relevant information provided by the LMS and upon advice from the Agriculture ministry and extensions services. Component 4: Public awareness and education. This final component is positioned at the center of improving service delivery and ensuring continuous engagement with the local communities. is designed to disseminate information knowledge and sensitize the population of Lesotho to climate change and vulnerability issues. A comprehensive awareness campaign emphasizing the renewed EWS functions and disaster and risk management will be implemented jointly with the two partner projects (AAP and DRR). Secondly, contributions will be made to a web-based knowledge platform focusing specifically on the science-based application of our project. Through this component, the project will also aim at integrating climate change in the educational system. This will be initiated by conducting an interdepartmental review of means and opportunities for such integration. Afterwards, pilot projects will be implemented on a voluntary basis introducing climate change and related issues in the curriculum of all levels of education. Materials developed for the various training courses under components 1, 2 and 4 will be made available to academic institutions to assist them in developing their own courses. Three pilot courses will be tested at each level of education. In addition, a media support platform will be created, whereby scientific journalists will receive training, logistical support and small bursaries in order to report on climate change and adaptation issues in the country, with a special focus on local adaptation measures implemented by this and other ongoing projects. This component of the project will build upon the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and ensure the sharing of best practices while engaging continuously with the local communities in the pilot zones throughout the delivery process and enhancing public awareness and education. LMS should take the lead in this component to ensure developed climate products and information are useful, and relevant to sector users and provide a clear understanding of climate service needs for effective formulation of adaptation initiatives. During project preparation phase, the area demarcated as Area of chronic vulnerability was selected for the implementation of pilot projects. This is the area considered most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and therefore requiring immediate intervention. One district per vulnerable zone within the limited Area of chronic vulnerability was then identified to host community-level pilot sites. The geographical location of each district is identified in figure 8. The selected vulnerability zones and pilot site districts are as follows: Zones I (Southern Lowlands across the Senqu River Valley) District of Quthing Zone II (Mountains) District of Thaba Tseka Zone III (Lowlands and Foothills) District of Mafeteng Page 7

8 Location map of districts whose communities are targeted for the implementation of pilot adaptation measures. The map of Lesotho was adapted from a United Nations Reference Map available at: ochaonline.un.org/ochalinkclick.aspx?link=ocha&docid= STEP 5 - National Commitment to the project was secured and reflected in NAPA and National Communications submissions to UNFCCC STEP 6 Support was provided in both national and external funding for the project National commitment is demonstrated first, by the integration of climate change and EWS in the National Strategic Plan ( ) with concrete budget allocations to support activities; secondly by the Government of Lesotho s contribution to this project takes the form of both inkind support to the operations of the project (through staff time, logistical and administrative support, travel and other assistance) as well as a direct budget allocation to the Ministry of Natural Resources from the national budget, to contribute to the operations of the Lesotho Meteorological Service and the operations of the Early Warning System. The government grant worth USD 1,307,000 is expected to be disbursed over the 3 years of the project implementation with USD 435,667 expected to be disbursed annually. The nature of the government (grant contribution) is multi-purpose and is described in Appendix 2 of the project document. The Government grant contribution includes: personnel cost (time of national staff involved in the EWS, observers, station managers, climate specialist); equipment (hydro-meteorological equipment including computing soft and hardware), maintenance of equipment, training cost, communication cost, awareness and stakeholder consultation. SOURCES OF CONFIRMED CO-FINANCING FOR THE PROJECT Name of Co-financier Classification Type Project %* (source) Government of Lesotho Nat l Gov t Grant 1,307, % Government of Lesotho Nat l Gov t In-kind 584, % AAP project Multi. Agency Grant 830, % Total Co-financing 2,721, % Page 8

9 STEP 7 Plans are expected to be implemented with appropriate oversight (see project summary table above) STEP 8 A budgeted M&E plan is in place for the project (see project summary table above) and outcomes will be used for continuous improvement of the project. Monitoring & Evaluation Plan Project indicators (high level indicators) have been selected for the project that measure both performance and impact, and which will form the basis of the project s Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) plan. These indicators are detailed in the table below. Project Components Project Objective: to build the capacity for monitoring and predicting climate change impacts, delivering early warning for extreme events, as well as for improved local and national planning for adaptation to climate change throughout the country Outcome 1: Improved reliability of hydro-climatic data Outcome 3: national policy making is informed by best practice and local demonstration Outcome 4: Increased public engagement and endogenous capacity to manage climate change impacts Performance Indicator Degree of functionality of the early warning system Degree of integration of adaptation into planning frameworks Degree of functionality of the climate monitoring infrastructure Level of uptake of piloted adaptive technologies and practices Degree of awareness among key stakeholders A mid-term management review or evaluation will take place as indicated in the project milestones. The review will include all parameters recommended by the GEF Evaluation Office for terminal evaluations and will verify information gathered through the GEF tracking tools, as relevant. After further consultations with stakeholders, the project expected outcomes were reworded as follows: Project Components Expected Outcomes 1. Climate monitoring, predicting and early Improved reliability of hydro-climatic data warning 2. Science-based Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Stronger capacity for resilient development planning planning 3. Local adaptation National policy making is informed by best practice and local demonstration 4. Public awareness and education Increased public engagement and endogenous capacity to manage climate change impacts In the final year of implementation, a scientific and technical assessment of pilot technologies will be conducted in order to evaluate their viability in the face of predicted climate change. An independent terminal evaluation managed by the Evaluation and Oversight Unit (EOU) of UNEP will take place at the end of project implementation. This project follows through on a 2006 GEF/UNDP National Capacity Self-Assessment (NCSA) exercise that assessed Lesotho s capacity to implement multilateral environmental agreements and execute vulnerability assessments that were undertaken in the context of the NAPA and National Communications. By strengthening Lesotho s human, technical and institutional capacity to integrate climate change issues into national development planning, the current project addressing some of the NCSA s recommendations and provides Lesotho with coordinated and effective adaptation responses to climate change. This proposal seeks funding to address urgent Page 9

10 and immediate adaptation needs in the country. Lesotho ratified the UNFCCC in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2000 and is classified among the non-annex 1 parties and a Least Developed Country. The country submitted its NAPA in 2007 and is eligible to benefit from the LDC Fund for the implementation of priority measures identified in its NAPA. This project is submitted as the first NAPA implementation project, and focuses on the fourth adaptation priority while contributing significantly to the goals of the first three. To ensure the long-term functionality of the Lesotho Meteorological Services, care should taken to ensure maintenance of key observational capabilities are addressed in the adaptation planning framework as well as future national and multilateral funding (LDC, GEF, Adaptation Fund, etc.) Conclusion This project exhibits all the desirable capacity development elements that will ensure long-term sustainability of the project beyond its implementation. Value will be added to the project with the recently adopted Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology by the high level AMCOMET, the WMO Strategy on Service Delivery and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services collectively promise to advance Lesotho to meet both domestic and international mandates, achieve the MDGs, and the Global Societal Needs as outlined in the WMO Strategic Plan ( ). Source: Global Environment Facility website at Page 10