Integration of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies in the South

Transcription

1 Integration of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies in the South Bart Muys 1, Festus Akinnifesi 2 and Bruno Verbist 1 1 KLIMOS (Research Platform Climate & Development), K.U.Leuven, Belgium 2 ICRAF Southern Africa, Lilongwe, Malawi Contact: bart.muys@ees.kuleuven.be tinyurl.com/forecoman

2 CC and the rural poor Threat by increased vulnerability/food insecurity?: adaptation Opportunity for increased income?: mitigation Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Mitigation: an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases Can these activities be integrated? Challenge: Transforming policies, institutional structures and processes in such way that mitigation and adaptation form integral part of improved sustainable livelihood (Hammill et al., 2005)

3 Sustainable livelihood (SLH) as integrator concept a livelihood that can cope with and recover from stress, maintain or enhance its assets, and provide sustainable opportunities for the next generation; and contributes net benefits to other livelihoods at the local and global levels in the short and long term (Chambers & Conway, 1991). Source: DFID 1999

4 Adaptation (IPCC TOR, 2001) Natural systems are vulnerable to CC. Many human systems are sensitive to CC, some are vulnerable. Adaptation is necessary to complement mitigation the poorest are the most vulnerable and have the least capacity to adapt Adaptation, SD and equity can be mutually reinforcing. AIM: Reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience through sustainable livelihoods

5 Adaptation and SLH SLH asset Disturbance factor Adaptation measure Natural resilience deforestation Avoid deforestation Physical resilience Human resilience Financial resilience Social resilience Water shortage Destructive weather events Overdependance on a single cash crop High unemployment Build water storage capacity Install weather prediction system Diversify income sources, e.g. NWFP Develop alternative income generating activities After Murdiyarso et al., 2005

6 Mitigation: its potential Carbon market is the fastest growing commodity market worldwide BUT: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 1647 certified projects (June 2009) for a total of 1657 million ton CO2eq, of which 4 forest projects Source: Masterthomas 2008, Wikipedia

7 Mitigation: its background Deforestation in global CO 2 emissions

8 Mitigation: its background missing sink Global annual balance of carbon sinks and sources (IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land use change and forestry, 2000)

9 Mitigation: its background National carbon fluxes related to land use change ( ) Source: Houghton, R.A , Woods Hole Research Center. Source: Wetlands International

10 Mitigation: its potential Plantation forest at stand level 600 Cumulative carbon sequestration [tc / ha] Fossil fuel input is generally a negative value and brings the top line of the pattern down to the ultimate total (thick black line) Displaced fossil fuel Litter Trees Time [years] Soil Source: Joanneum Research, Graz, Austria W W W.K U L E U E N.B E

11 Mitigation: livelihood impacts Mitigation activity. Afforestation with native species on steep degraded cropland Environmental effect + reduce erosion + increase biodiversity + improve landscape connectivity -Increased ET - risks of monoculture Socio-economic effect + diversified income stream + product & market innovation - Reduced agricultural crop return after Murdiyarso et al., 2005

12 Mitigation: livelihood impacts % change in water discharge after afforestation of land suitable for CDM-AR Trabucco et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 126 (2008) 81 97

13 Payment for environmental services: where is the market? The world citizen wants carbon but the local farmer produces meat The urban dweller wants drinking water but the local farmer prefers milk Issues of scale, complexity, risk

14 Capacity Stage Understanding UNFCCC and KP ENCOFOR Mitigation Tool at Pre-feasibility Stage Site pre-selection Module (1) Land suitability Module (2) Economic Module Social and SD Module PIN Feasibility Stage Land suitability Module (3) Economic Module SIA and SD Module EIA Module Technology Module Baseline study Module Carbon modelling Module Project formulation Module Documentation Stage PDD Module Contracts Module PDD, (1), (2), (3): entry levels Life cycle Stage Implementation Monitoring Verification Pre-implementation Stage Validation Registration Contracts Transactions

15 Linking mitigation and adaptation 4 principles for linking adaptation measures and mitigation activities (Robledo et al., 2005): 1) Prioritise mitigation activities that help to reduce pressure on the natural resources; 2) Include vulnerability to climate change as one of the risks to be analysed in mitigation activities; 3) Prioritise mitigation activities that enhance local adaptive capacity; 4) Increase sustainability of livelihoods, with particular consideration for the poor.

16 Synergies between adaptation and mitigation Look for. project areas and project ideas with high synergy between mitigation and adaptation Current land use Mitigation potential CC vulnerability Adaptation potential Adjusted management Grazing land Carbon sequestration in forest plantations Erosion due to increased rainfall intensity Build infrastructure Soil protection Improve food security Agroforestry including living barriers After Murdiyarso et al., 2005

17 Food & Climate: from trade-off to win-win Millennium Development Goals 1 & 7 UNFCCC, UNCBD Livelihood agroforestry Environment Food security Adaptation Mitigation REDD Potential of converting 1 billion ha farmland to C rich agricultural landscapes generating 50 billion tons of CO2 reduction from the atmosphere 1/3 of the reduction challenge (Garrity, 2008).

18 Agroforestry: mitigation potential Source: Verchot et al., 2005

19 Agroforestry: optimum between profit and carbon. Source: Verchot et al., 2005

20 Agroforestry: adaptative management. Source: Verchot et al., 2005

21 Conclusions. livelihood approach is an excellent integrator of mitigation and adaptation efforts Synergies between mitigation (REDD, AR) and adaptation should be maximized; project opportunities should be created in post Kyoto rules Agroforestry is a key activity to create carbon-rich and CC resilient rural landscapes in the south. Source: Verchot et al., 2005

22 Thank you for your attention! With thanks to: KLIMOS is financed by the Belgian Cooperation through VLIR Carmenza Robledo (Intercooperation, CH)