Presentation of 2010 Mozambique Agriculture Trends Report

Transcription

1 Presentation of 2010 Mozambique Agriculture Trends Report 2 nd September 2011 VIP Hotel Maputo, Mozambique

2 Setting the context: Agricultural trends in Southern Africa with reference to Mozambique by Dr E. Musaba (ReSAKSS-SA, IWMI) 2 Sept 2011 Maputo

3 Outline of the Presentation Why monitor agricultural sector? What is CAADP? SADC RISDP CAADP M&E Framework ReSAKSS Agricultural sector trends in Southern Africa Remarks on overall performance

4 Why monitor agricultural sector? To determine whether investments made have any impacts on growth rates and on national hunger and poverty levels. To establish whether and how the country is progressing towards achieving its agricultural growth target, performance targets and the MDG1 target ( SADC RISDP and CAADP targets) To promote the culture of using evidence within national planning systems as a basis for decision making.

5 What is CAADP? Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Formulated in 2003 under auspices of the AUC and NEPAD CAADP - to help African countries attain high economic growth through agriculturally-led development Targets of CAADP MDG 1 : to reduce poverty and hunger by half by 2015, 6 percent average annual growth in the agriculture sector Allocate 10 percent of national budgets to agricultural sector.

6 Four Pillars of CAADP CAADP is a strategic framework to guide investments across four specific pillars, as well as investments in strengthening institutional capacity across the pillars: 1. Extending the area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems 2. Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacity for market access 3. Increasing food supplies and reducing hunger 4. Agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption

7 SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Plan (RISDP) SADC RISDP targets GDP growth of 7% a year. Halving hunger between 1990 and Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% by Increasing fertilizer use from 44.6 kg/ha to 65Kg/ha by 2015 Increasing cereal yield from 1392 kg/ha to 2,000 kg/ha by 2015 Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies (improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually.

8 CAADP M&E Framework II. Overall Purpose of the M & E Agenda The overall purpose of the M&E agenda is to assist CAADP and SADC to monitor and track progress in resource allocation and the achievement of stated targets in the following performance areas: (1) enabling environment; (2) implementation process (3) commitments and investments; (4) agricultural growth performance; (5) agricultural trade performance; (6) poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition security; and (7) investment-growth poverty linkages. Hence assesses progress made toward achieving CAADP and SACD RISDP targets. CAADP M&E framework has 34 indicators

9 ReSAKSS-SA Is Part of an Africa wide initiative supporting CAADP and regionally shared goals COMESA, SADC, ECOWAS Provides Analysis and knowledge support for planning, review and policy dialogue for agricultural growth and poverty reduction 3 Sub-Regional programmes launched in Sept 2006 ReSAKSS-SA is facilitated by IWMI and IFPRI, and steering committee chaired by SADC FANR

10 Agricultural trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG

11 Human population is still largely rural based Strategic Source: World Analysis Bank (2009) and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

12 Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008) Source: World Bank (2010)

13 SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target Source: World Bank (2010)

14 GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in poverty National poverty headcount ratio (%) Congo, D.R. (2005) Swaziland (2001) Madagascar (2009) Zambia (2009) Lesotho (2009) Zimbabwe (2009) Mozambique (2009) Malawi (2009) Tanzania (2009) South Africa (2009) Mauritius (2009) Strategic Source: World Analysis Bank (2010) and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

15 GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in hunger Source: von Grebmer et al. (2010)

16 Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction Constant 2000 US$ (billion) Agriculture GDP Total GDP Strategic Source: World Analysis Bank (2010) and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

17 Progress towards the 6 percent agriculture GDP CAADP growth target Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

18 Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

19 cereal production has been failing to match population growth in the region over the last decades Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

20 Net importer of cereals Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

21 Net importer of key livestock products (e.g. cattle meat) Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

22 Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha Source: FAOSTAT (2010)

23 Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7 percent of area under irrigation SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015 Source: SADC (2008)

24 Overall Performance Contribution of agriculture to total GDP varies across SADC countries:.agriculture remains the region s driver of economic development particularly among low income countries Varied progress towards meeting set targets: however most targets are yet to be met Maputo declaration, CAADP AgGDP growth rates, Cereal yields, Fertilizer use, Etc. Decline in poverty since 1990 marginal

25 Overall Performance Future Outlook: AgGDP: Some countries are on track to meeting the CAADP 6 percent annual AgGDP growth target, namely Angola, Mozambique other are not Poverty: most SADC countries are off-track to reaching the MDG1 target of halving 1990 poverty rates by 2015 There is mixed progress in meeting both goals of MDG1 Poverty and Hunger : Mozambique is no exception Challenges: stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates increasing budget allocations to the sector and identification of policy and investment options Increasing agricultural productivity (e.g. Irrigation, Fertiliser use etc.) Translating agriculture and total economic growth into poverty reduction