Climate change vulnerability, fisheries and aquaculture:

Transcription

1 Ocean: Innovation and Opportunity Climate change & Global Food Security Oct 2011 Climate change vulnerability, fisheries and aquaculture: What does this mean for food and livelihoods security? Dr Christophe Béné Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team Institute of Development Studies UK

2 Fish, Climate Change and Food security Presentation outlines Fish and food security Climate change global effects Specific vulnerability of fisheries and aquaculture sectors to climate change Implications for food security at local, national and global levels Some conclusions

3 Fish and Food security... some figures Contribution of fish to food security Global increase in per capita consumption High regional heterogeneity Fish as rich food for the poor 1.5 billion with 20% of their protein intake Source of nutrient, minerals, fatty acids Small indigenous fish species contribute to meet up to 40% of total daily requirement of Vit.A in Bangladesh (source: Ross et al. 2007) Supplement to nutrient-deficient cereal based diet Because it is rich in lysine, fish increases the protein intake from other food Maldives 76.1 Sierra Leone 75.7 Solomon Islands 73.5 Comoros 56.5 Kiribati 55.9 Bangladesh 54.9 Cambodia 53.2 Indonesia 52.7 Gambia 51.2 Senegal 48.5 Seychelles 48.0 Sao Tome & Principe 45.0 Sri Lanka 44.3 Lao PDR 44.0 Japan 43.3 Togo 42.9 Philippines 42.5 Congo D.R 42.1 Vanuatu 40.2 Guinea 38.6 South Korea 37.8 Thailand 37.7 Malaysia 37.2 Myamar 36.6 Cameroon 36.1 Malawi 35.9 Cote d'ivoire 35.4 Nigeria 34.7 Uganda 34.3 Viet Nam 33.6 (%) Fish as percentage of animal protein consumption Karawazuka and Béné (2011) calculated from FAO balance sheet

4 Fish and Food security... The bigger picture Global fish production and utilization How does this relate to the future picture? 30% population increase by 2050 (9 billions) 70% living in urban areas % more food equivalent to an increase of more than 365 million tonnes of dietary protein (Rice and Garcia 2010) Additional production of 75 million tonnes of fish (50% increase in fisheries / aquaculture) Impact of climate change on cereal Up until Mixed (positive and negative) impact on the main rain-fed cereal productions After 2050 increasing negative effect rapid decrease of crop production potential in most regions and global aggregate

5 Density of people within the coastal zone of developing countries (Source: ESPA 2008) Areas at risk from floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise associated with climate change. (Source: CHRR, CIESIN, CU, WB, UNDP 2009) Impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture

6 Effect of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture Impact pathways of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture Climate Change Natural events Long-term Sea Level rise El Nino, Southern Oscillation and other circulation changes Rainfall patterns and water availability Short-term Extreme events (hurricanes, flood, etc.) Ecosystems and natural resources Abundance Productivity (e.g. up-welling) Geographical distribution Physiology Coastal infrastructures Public infrastructures (road, port, etc.) Private infrastructures (boats, ponds) External (non sectoral) environment Macro-economic dynamics (markets) Other food sectors (agriculture) Population / demographic trends (e.g. migrations) Mitigation / adaptation (policies, interventions) Techincal innovations Direct ecological Direct physical Fisherfolk and aqua-farmers Livelihood (socio-economic) vulnerability Physical vulnerability Political economy vulnerability Indirect

7 Direct climate impact, some overall trends Ecosystems Warm-water species are being displaced towards the poles Change in ecosystem productivity: In low latitude (warmed world), likely to be reduced In higher latitude, likely to be increased Physiological changes both positive and negative effects on fisheries and aquaculture species on the region and latitude (unpredictability)

8 Direct climate impact, some overall trends Fisheries activities Necessary adaptation of fishing strategies to changes in distribution, composition and habitats of targeted species Both costs and opportunity (unpredictability) Safety at sea and settlements, with communities living in low-lying areas at particular risk. Impact on infrastructures (boats, landing, postharvest facilities, transport routes)

9 Direct climate impact, some overall trends Aquaculture activities Necessary adaptation of aquaculture activities to changes in physiologies of targeted species and water availability Both costs and opportunity (unpredictability) Safety issues, with communities living in low-lying areas at particular risk. Impact on infrastructures (farm, hatcheries, postharvest facilities, transport routes)

10 Assessing vulnerability - some recent attempts External assessment (macro / sectoral level) S E AdC = Vulnerability (e.g. Adger 2000, IPCC 2001) = Sensitivity Indicator Exposure Indicator Adaptive Capac Indicator Vulnerability Indicator Source: Kam et al. 2010

11 Assessing vulnerability - some recent attempts Participatory assessment (household / community level) Pacific Islands (Solomon) vulnerability Past threats (N=134) 2007 Earthquake/tsunami Local Economy crisis Climate-related changes + Natural disasters Household-level issue Community conflict and ethnic tensions Fisheries-related issues No threat No answer Climate-related changes + Natural disasters Malthusian scenario Social cohesion erosion Land dispute and inter-community conflict over resources Local Economy crisis Household-level issue No answer/don't know Fisheries-related issues Future threats (N=145) Schwarz et al Frequency (%) Frequency (%)

12 Fish, Climate Change and Food security Key messages Fish food security affected by climate change through multiple channels, altered fisheries / fish-faming productivity and availability (direct ecological) impacts on coastal infrastructure and living space (direct physical) movement of people to coasts (indirect) Indirect impacts may interact with, amplify or even overwhelm direct impacts on ecosystems and fish ecology Changes in markets, demographics, overexploitation and governance regimes, are likely to have greater effect than direct climate change impact freshwater aquaculture will be outcompeted by other sectors (irrigation agriculture) in terms of water availability in relation to food security Marine aquaculture and fisheries more likely to survive