Worldwide polynomial time trends for the four major types of natural disasters:

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1 Review and evaluation of the status of agrometeorological applications to conserve and manage natural and environmental resources for the benefit of agriculture, rangelands, forestry, fisheries and other relevant rural activities Rizaldi Boer Bogor Agticultural University Meeting of The CAgm Expert Team on Agrometeorological Aspects of Sustainable Agricultural Development, Edmonton, Canada, July 2008

2 Worldwide polynomial time trends for the four major types of natural disasters: Number of Disasters Source: Guha-Sapir et al (2004) Increasing trend on number of disasters, floods and droughts showed the fastest rate. This underscores the importance of addressing issues such as environmental degradation, unplanned human settlements and the increasing vulnerabilities of populations. Floods&related Droughts&related Windstorms Geological Disasters

3 Number of Disasters Source: Guha-Sapir et al (2004) Decreasing trend in support from government and humanitarian agencies for disaster relief

4 Agriculture is one of sectors which is vulnerable to climate variability and climate change and this sector plays important role in the economic development of all developing countries These suggest the importance of developing agrometeorological applications to conserve and manage natural and environmental resources for the benefit of agriculture, rangelands, forestry, fisheries and other relevant rural activities

5 Interactions between weather or climate and agriculture are complex because of the spatial and temporal variation in the physical environment and the biological response Weather is experienced on a relatively local to regional scale for periods up to 1 or 2 weeks Climate is realized at seasonal to decadal scales and generally is discussed at county to regional scales. Arrows indicate that the boundaries between the scales are fuzzy and each level extends into larger or smaller scales. Source: Steiner and Hatfield (2008)

6 Agrometeorological Applications TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND DATA GENERATION WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICATION OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IN AGRICULTURE SECTORS BIOPHYSIC SOCIO-ECONOMIC INSTITUTION

7 Biophysical Aspects Interaction between crop/genetic, environment (climate) and management The use of simulation modeling and GIS/remote sensing To quantify spatial and temporal dynamics of crops and the response of crops to various management scenarios and climate variability To assess crop pest and disease outbreaks and management To assess the impact of land use management on the changes of severity of climate impact (climate risk) The use of weather and climate forecast information in crop management

8 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECT Application of global climate models to assess impact of climate variability on commodity price, export and import, food security Micro loan, credit, index insurance and climate risk management Etc

9 INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT The development of effective early warming system (effective climate information system) Incorporating climate information into decision making process (development of climate change adaptation planning horizon) Etc

10 Challenges (Steiner and Hatfield, 2008) Adapting to and mitigating climate change (integrating adaptation measures and mitigation efforts and poverty alleviation) Enhancing resilience to extreme events (Most studies focus on changes of extreme precipitation events, but changes in temperature extremes also have serious implications for ecosystems, agriculture, and human well being. Warmer minimum temperatures may cause problems with vernalization of some crops, may change the insect and disease populations for agriculture as well as for human populations and natural ecosystems).

11 Challenges (Steiner and Hatfield, 2008) Informing agriculture decision making (improving forecast accuracy, quantifying the evidence of forecast benefit, enhancing stakeholder participation, assessing adoption failures for lessons learned, exploring regional market and storage applications and addressing institutional and policy issues) Monitoring and assessing agriculture in the environment (addressing short- and long-term environmental concerns including water quantity and quality, greenhouse gas mitigation, air quality, farmland protection and green space preservation, wildlife habitat and species protection, and others).

12 Challenges (Steiner and Hatfield, 2008) Discipline of agroclimatology (enhancing collaboration between agroclimatologists and other discipline and multisectoral teams; diminishing numbers of training in agroclimatology; to train students not only in mathematics and biophysical sciences, but also in conducting integrated systems research, communications, and team skills; attracting high caliber students to take advanced studies in agroclimatology)

13 Future Direction A significant effort for future agroclimatologist will be on development of strategies and technologies to restore nature s function impaired by past practices, mitigate unintended consequences of current practices, and develop methods to better evaluate the range of likely outcomes associated with proposed alternative technologies and practices (Steiner and Hatfield, 2008)