Do We Grow Another Bushel or Save a Buck?

Transcription

1 Do We Grow Another Bushel or Save a Buck? Joe Lauer University of Wisconsin Madison Corn/Soy EXPO Kalahari Resort, Wisconsin Dells January 29 30, 2015

2 Top 10 most common yield limiting factors And NO, it isn t about inputs. The three most important management decisions are: Hybrid Selection, Hybrid Selection, Hybrid Selection. The main management objective is to reduce stress on the corn plants during the growing season 3

3 Back to the Future Frugal Innovation Know your costs Concentrate on the Basics Timing is everything Question every input (Why?) Scouting UAVs 4

4 How much does it cost to produce corn in WI? Cost ($/A) $160 $140 $120 $100 Data derived from PEPS cash corn division Error bars represent + standard error of the mean Seed Fertilizer Chemicals Harvesting Equipment Land Cost ($ ha -1 ) $350 $300 $250 $80 $200 $60 $150 $40 $100 $20 $50 $0 $ Lauer, PEPS

5 Crop Production Decisions Weather, Timing and Economics Drive Decisions Categorical variables Hybrid selection Seed treatment Rotation Tillage Weed control Harvest timing Land Marketing Equipment Continuous variables Plant density Planting date Soil fertility N Resiliency (ability to drawdown) P K Lime Micronutrients Irrigation Scouting Other variables Row spacing Insects Diseases Nematodes Drainage Use alternatives Soil amendments Precision farming Data management Storage Cropping system Cover crops Resistance management 6

6 Determining Maximum Yield v. Economic Optimum Yield Yield (bu/a) Fungicide Tillage Nitrogen d b a Cost Yield a = Maximum yield (MY) b = Economic optimum yield (EO): the greatest difference between cost and yield (or return) c = Equilibrium yield (EQ) where farmers make no profit (potential risk) d = Yield (Y 0 )with no input c Cost or Return ($/A) Input (Effort) 7

7 #1 Weather Crops in the Midwest are challenged by: Wet springs result in lack of root surface area Drainage is critical Dry and hot conditions during pollination, kernel set, and grain filling Pray for (Ideally) Spring dry enough for early planting, but wet enough to activate herbicides and promote good stands with uniform emergence Summer with timely rain (1 inch per week), lots of sunshine, and temperatures in mid 80's (day) and low 60's (night) Fall with sunny, dry weather to speed dry down & allow harvest of 22% moisture corn by November 1 Accept the fact that mother nature has the upper hand!

8 Corn Yield at 0 lb N/A for Various Rotations Yield (bushels per acre) CC CS CSCOA 0 Lauer, 2014 (Lancaster) 9

9 #2 Selecting Corn Hybrids in the Transgenic Era Increasingly Hybrid Selection Dictates Management Principles for Selection Use independent yield trial data and multi location averages Evaluate consistency of performance Grain Yield Moisture Lodging Silage Yield Pay attention to seed costs. Milk per Ton Milk per Acre /Season/DSS.aspx Every hybrid must stand on its own for performance; it must pull its own weight. Buy the traits you need Traits do not add to yield Traits protect yield. 10

10 Grain yield difference between highest and lowest corn hybrid in each UW trial since 1973 Grain yield difference (bu/a) Number of trials= 939 Average yield = 165 bu/a Average difference = 70 bu/a 20 0 Lauer, UW Hybrid Trials

11 Relative performance of conventional corn hybrids Grain yield difference (bu/a) = hybrid average trial average Grain yield (bu/a) 20 All hybrids Top 20% 10 Trial Average Last major fall count of European corn borer (2002) 0 10 Transgenic hybrids first introduced (1996) Tissue cultured hybrids first introduced (1992) 20 Number of Plots: Lauer, unpublished HT data 12

12 #2 Seed Treatments Take home message The number of days from planting to emergence is a key factor determining the amount of seedling disease infecting the crop. Growers must do ALL of the right things to minimize early season STRESS It is hard to make money raising runts Rain is a growers best friend or worst enemy Rainfall soon after planting that results in saturated or nearly saturated soils is a bigger factor on yield than is date of planting or tillage type Grower s today plant large numbers of acres of corn each day increasing the at risk acres when a major weather front comes through 13

13 Easiest yield you can get. The gift that keeps on giving. Corn yield increases 10 19% when rotated with soybean. The rotation effect lasts at most two years. Depends upon the length of the break 2 or more break years Yield of 2nd year corn > continuous corn. 1 year break Yield of 2nd year corn = continuous corn. Yield of 3rd year corn is similar to continuous corn. The rotation effect is even more dramatic in stressful years. #3 Crop Rotation

14 The rotation effect lasts two years increasing corn grain yield 15 to 17% for CS/1C and 6% for 2C Grain yield (bu/a) Corn Yield Response Following Five Years of Soybean Grain yield (Mg ha 1 ) A A B C C C C * %= CS 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C CC CT/NT 0 Cropping Sequence C= Corn, S= Soybean, 1C= First year corn, 2C= Second year corn CC= Continuous corn Lauer, (Arlington, Control treatments) 15

15 #4 Planting date Priceless! Sets up the season Double whammy : late = low yield AND higher moisture Focus on seedbed conditions and calendar date rather than soil temperature. Follow local extension recommendations Crop insurance requirements Disadvantages of early planting Seedling diseases Crusting Late spring frost European corn borer 16

16 The planting date producing maximum grain yield is April 28 Grain yield decreases 0.9 bu/a per day on May 10 and accelerates to 2.6 bu/a per day on June 1. Grain yield (bu/a) Grain yield (Mg ha -1 ) Maximum yield 95% of Maximum yield Grain Yield (bu/a) GY= X X R 2 = 0.78 Accelerating rate of yield loss Grain Yield Risk (bu/a) GY= X X R 2 = April 3 April 17 May 1 May 15 May 29 June 12 June 26 0 Lauer, , N= 208 (Full season hybrid at Arlington, WI) 17

17 Year Corn grain yield response to planting date Date of: Maximum 95% of yield max yield Rate of yield (bu/a) loss on: May 10 May 20 June 1 Maximum yield Bu/A R May 1 May April 30 May April 29 May April 26 May May 2 May May 3 May April 29 May April 10 April April 25 May April 29 May Average April 28 May Lauer, Full season hybrid at Arlington, WI 18

18 It s not the place to cut costs. Follow extension recommendations Soil test and only apply needed nutrients: Use cheapest form of fertilizer per unit of N, P, or K and apply efficiently Use manure and legume credits to reduce purchased fertilizer costs Don t cut back on overall N supplied unless over applying Don t use micronutrients unless soil test recommends #5 Soil Fertility

19 Laboski,

20 Corn Per Yield Unit Nutrients Removed by Corn at Harvest P 2 O 5 (lbs) K 2 O (lbs) Grain, per bushel Silage, per ton (65% moisture) Per Area Grain, 175 bushels per acre Silage, 24 tons per acre (65% moisture) derived from UW NPM Fast Facts 21

21 #6 Plant Distribution Plant density and Row spacing Plant density Has the most potential to move a farmer from current yield levels Might be the place to start when moving off the yield plateau. Plant densities for maximum yield are increasing as newer hybrids are commercialized. Row spacing Narrower is better Decision has low impact on yield Seeding depth inches

22 Grain yield (bu/a) Theoretical Grain Yield Using Components (Assume 90,000 kernels per bushel, 56 lb/bu, kernel mass= 282 mg) Harvest Row spacing Plant density 15 in 30 in (Number/A) Plant spacing Current record = 455 bu/a (2013) Kernels per ear Grain (lb) per ear

23 Relationship between corn plant density and grain yield, economic optimum, silage yield, Milk/Ton, and Milk/Acre 100 Relative measure (%) Grain yield (R2=0.79) Economic optimum (R2= 0.94) Forage yield (R2=0.69) Milk per ton(r2=0.77) Milk per acre (R2=0.68) Harvested plant density (plants/a x 1000) Lauer, PDTs >= 4 and PD >= 40K 24

24 #7 Pest Control Weeds > Insects > Diseases Emerging issues Development of CRW resistance to Bt Weed resistance to glyphosate Corn nematodes EIL Figure credit: Ed Zaborski, University of Illinois 25

25 Early season weed competition costs us yield in high yield environments. Yield cost of delaying weed control Critical periods of competition Timing Weed density #7 Timely Weed Control

26 Yield Cost of Delaying Weed Control Knezevic et al. (2003) 27

27 #7 Insect Management Its all about scouting and timing! Insects are adapting Corn rootworm (Diabrotica sp.) Northern Southern Western Photos: Rice

28 #7 Disease Management What is good for the crop is good for the pest. Disease management goal is to improve corn canopy leading to yield increase and disease decrease. Genetic resistance is the cheapest control Scout for these in particular Anthracnose Northern Corn Leaf Blight Diplodia Fusarium/Gibberella Foliar applied fungicides? Headline Quadris

29 Corn and Fungicide in Wisconsin Year Previous Crop Tillage No Fungicide With Headline Fungicide Fungicide Increase with Headline LSD(0.10) bushels per acre 2012 Corn No till NS Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS 2011 Corn No till NS Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS 2010 Corn No till NS Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS 2009 Corn No till NS Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS 2008 Corn No till NS Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS 2007 Corn No till Soybean No till NS Wheat No till NS Soybean No till NS 2006 Soybean Chisel NS Corn Chisel NS Corn Chisel NS 2005 Corn Chisel NS Soybean Chisel NS Soybean Chisel NS 2004 Soybean Chisel Lauer, 2012 (Arlington, Headline at VT) 30

30 #8 Tillage Tillage used to be about Controlling Weeds Seedbed Preparation Now, it is all about stand establishment. Excellent herbicides Planter technology developments Not necessary, except in continuous corn. Tillage responses more often measured in the northern corn belt (~5 7% increase). Less difference observed between tillage systems when using Round up Ready crops. Tillage systems take time to equilibrate. Do you have reason to suspect compaction? How was it caused? Sub soil? Photo by Dick Wolkowski Photo by Mike Rankin 31

31 Tillage does not affect corn yield in CS/1C, but improves yield in 2C to 5C and CC. Grain yield (bu/a) Corn Yield Response Following Five Years of Soybean Grain yield (Mg ha 1 ) CT NT NS NS * * * * * %= CS 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C CC Cropping Sequence C= Corn, S= Soybean, 1C= First year corn, 2C= Second year corn CC= Continuous corn Lauer, (Arlington, Control treatments)

32 #9 Harvest and Store Carefully Trade off between field losses and drying cost Recommended to harvest between 20 and 25% moisture For safe storage, drying is usually required (< 15%) Grain moisture (%) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 33

33 Precision farming Success is proving elusive Technology is available, but the agronomy is lacking. 34

34 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 35

35 Relative Impact of Corn Management Decisions on Grain Yield in Wisconsin Weather / Environment Hybrid Top to bottom ranking = 0 to 30% change (Grain= 70 bu/a, Silage= 12,100 lb Milk/A) Presence or absence of genetic traits = 0 to 100% change Rotation Continuous v. Rotation = 0 to 30% change Greater consequence in stress environments Date of Planting May 1 to June 1 = 0 to 30% change Also need to add moisture penalty Soil Fertility 160 v. 0 lb N/A = 20 to 50% change Plant Density 32,000 to 15,000 plants/a = 0 to 22% change Pest Control Timeliness Weeds > Insects > Diseases Good v. Bad = 0 to 100% change Tillage Chisel v. No till = 5 to 10% change No till = energy savings Cultivation: Yes v. No = 0 to 10% change Harvest Timing Oct. 15 to Dec. 1 = 0 to 20% change Row Spacing 30 inches to 15 inches = 0 to 5% change 36

36 Thanks for your attention! Questions? Website: To subscribe (unsubscribe) to season updates WiscCorn 37