HOW DO FARMERS WORLDWIDE FORESEE THE FUTURE GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX

Transcription

1 HOW DO FARMERS WORLDWIDE FORESEE THE FUTURE GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX

2 GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX Many types of dairy forecasts exist worldwide. Examples of forecasts are trends on milk prices and milk production. This data while important omits to show what the individual farmers think of their own dairy business future, their perception of dairy industry and market developments and whether they intend to invest in their business within the immediate term. In other words, with how much confidence do they approach their own dairy business outlook. Quality information is critical for thorough management decision making. Consequently, Global Dairy Farmers (GDF) and Aeres University of Applied Sciences developed a tool to measure the farmer s business perception on a global level. It is based on an on-line survey (Survey Monkey) of dairy farmers worldwide. The results are valuable to (farmer) entrepreneurs, service industry and for educational institutions. GDF s goal is to increase the network of farmers, either directly or through participating educational stakeholders and commercial companies. This results in a significant improved global coverage of all dairy regions. WHO ARE GDF AND AERES Global Dairy Farmers (GDF) is the worldwide network of leading dairy farmers and associated (noncompeting) industry partners. This platform enables its members to meet each other for discussion on new strategies, developments and projects, exchange knowledge and experience, find new business opportunities and get inspired. globaldairyfarmers.com Please enjoy and be educated by the 2 nd quarter results of How did farmers foresee the short-term future during April, May and June of 2017? AERES University of Applied Science is a professional education institute with a focus on putting theory into practice. In the programs offered, professionals prepare for their careers in the knowledge domains of agriculture, food, horticulture, agribusiness and animal science. aeres.nl/hogeschool/int/en 1

3 GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX AT A GLANCE In one graph insight is obtained in the global trend of the GDF confidence index concerning dairying at regional level in one glance. GRAPH 1 GLOBAL TRENDS ON REGIONAL LEVEL As can be seen not every region is covered by all regions. We strive to gather more particpants all over the world every time, to ensure reliable results. The above graph presents the overall GDF Confidence Index while the other figures show underlying information. The GDF-Confidence Index has decreased since last March and is now about the same as in spring Main reason is a clear loss in confidence in Asia, Africa and North-America. In these regions milk prices do not reach levels that dairy farmers consider as appropriate. In Western Europe and Oceania dairy farmers face more appropriate milk prices although they would, of course, appreciate better milk prices than now. 2

4 GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX A team of experts combine the results of the survey and combine those results with previous Confidence Index results. This results in the below Global Dairy Confidence Index. DAIRY FARMERS OWN OPINION ON CONTINUITY AND FUTURE OF DAIRYING IN THE REGION FIGURE I Q FIGURE II Q FIGURE III Q The above three figures (I, II & III) mention the opinion of dairy farmers on the continuity of their own farm. In general the dairy farmers are quite positive. In Q the dairy farmers in Oceania and Western Europe were less positive about the perspectives for their farm than elsewhere but also in these regions most dairy farmers are positive concerning continuity of their own farm. In Q2 the dairy farmers in North America and Western Europe are less positive about the perspectives for their farm than elsewhere but also in these regions most dairy farmers are positive concerning continuity of their own farm. 3

5 The three figures (IV, V & VI) below show the own opinion of dairy farmers on the continuity and future of dairying in their region. In general the dairy farmers in the survey consider the continuity for dairying in their region as neutral. The dairy farmers consider their own situation as better: the same as in previous surveys except the one in last December where they thought the same about their own perspectives and those for the region. FIGURE IV Q FIGURE V Q FIGURE VI Q

6 The participants in the survey were also asked to give their view on the opinion and the confidence of colleagues in their region. The results are shown in the next picture. In general, the responding dairy farmers assume that their colleagues are more pessimistic than they are themselves. In Q1 the confidence is the lowest in Oceania and Western Europe. FIGURE I Q FIGURE II Q FIGURE III Q There are mixed feelings about continuity and future of dairying in the region which is somewhat less positive than in last March and December. Still milk prices are currently at moderate levels and little fluctuation is foreseen creating more confidence. PRICE EXPECTATIONS OF DAIRY FARMERS The next three pictures show the price expectations of dairy farmers worldwide. The expectations in the short run on the milk price, the price for concentrates and the price for roughage are presented. FIGURE VII Q

7 FIGURE VIII Q FIGURE IX Q In general the dairy farmers expect stable prices for milk while concentrate and roughage prices are expected to increase slightly. As a consequence the margins can deteriorate a little compared to those of the last few months. EXPECTATIONS ON INVESTMENTS The following pictures show the room dairy farmers see for investments today for themselves and for their colleagues in the same region. The confidence and the price expectations, as presented in previous pictures, are positive. However it needs time to recover from the bad results in the last 1-2 years but the expectations are already more positive than last March which was, at its turn, more positive than last December. At the moment investment possibilities are considered most positive in North America. It is noticeable that the dairy farmers see more possibilities for themselves to invest than for their colleagues but the differences are limited. FIGURES X Q

8 SNEAK PEAK: GLOBAL DAIRY CONFIDENCE INDEX PLUS The Confidence Index combined with causal implications provided by our experts result in the Global Dairy Confidence Index Plus. This index is only available in the 3 rd quarter of the year. This extended version is then published in GDF Monthly Newsletter, which is only available to GDF s partners and members and survey participants. The following picture show the scope dairy farmers imagine for investments during quarter 3 (2016Q3) for themselves. Will investments be made in the short or long term and what are the sizes of the different investments? Some goods are sourced from manufacturing companies (buildings, machinery, installations, milking equipment, automation) while other are generally supplied by other farmers (land, production rights, animals). As an example, the results for short or long-term anticipated machinery investments are shown below. Machinery consists of tractors and other rolling material such as feed mixers. A tractor can require a lot of money but for instance a wagon has a much lower price. FIGURE IX Q PARTICIPATION Are you interested to participate and find out more about the Confidence Index Plus? Please send us an . CONTACT Marieke Houkes Assistant Manager Global Dairy Farmers info@globaldairyfarmers.com Yvonne Leenders Manager Global Dairy Farmers Lecturer Aeres University gdf-manager@globaldairyfarmers.com y.leenders@aeres.nl 7