Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia

Transcription

1 P.O. Box 123 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya tel: fax: FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia January 218 Upate (Issued March 1, 218) Highlights Inflation: SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Index (CPI) remained relatively stable or mildly changed (by +/- 2-8%) in December 217 and January 218. The CPI rose (by 7-14%) annually in Northeast due to increases in cereal prices but declined in central and Southern due to declines in cereal prices. SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI remained stable or mildly changed (by 1%) month-on-month in December 217 and January 218 but increased (14-17%) year-on-year due to higher cereal prices this year, due to low cereal production in the northwest. Zeilac DJIBOUTI Awdal Borama Woq. Galbeed Burao Tog-Wajaale Hargeisa Togdheer Erigabo Sanag Sool Lasanod Bossaso Bari Garowe Nugal Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (less than +/- 8%) against USD in most regions of the country in December 217 and January 218. Annual comparison mostly exhibited mixed patterns; SoSh gaining value in central and southern regions with the highest appreciation (17-23%) being recorded in Hiraan as markets are abandoning the use of newly printed notes in favor of stronger pre-war old notes (less available in the local markets). Depreciations (7-1%) were recorded in Northeast regions due to recent printing of local notes in the regions SISh-using areas: The SISh remained stable against the USD in December 217 and January 218 month-on-month while year-on-year comparison indicates high depreciation (2-26%) due to increased supply of newly printed local currency notes and a decline in the availability of USD due to reduced livestock exports and export revenue. Local cereal prices declined mildly in most regions of the country month-on-month in December 217 and January 218 except in Middle Juba, Galgaduud, Banadir (Mogadishu) and Sanaag where local cereal prices increased moderately (14-28%) in January 218 due to declining trend in cereal supply as a result of below normal Deyr harvest and/ or deteriorated security condition. Mild declines in other regions is due to increased supply resulting from Deyr 217/18 new harvests from neighboring rural areas. Annual comparison indicates lower prices in most regions due to increased supply as a result of improved cereal production compared to a year ago (December January 217). Galkayo Abudwaq Mudug Dusa Mareb Galgadud El Barde Belet Weyne Haradhere Bakol Dolo Hudur Hiran Aden Yabal El Der Luuq Belet Xawo Gedo Baidoa M. Shabelle El Waq Qansah Dere Monitored Market Jowhar Dinsor Bay Wanle Weyne Bardera Market Catchment Afgoye Qoryoley Banadir Central Merka L. Shabelle Juba Valley Buale Juba Hagar North East Doobley Jilib Afmadow North West Jamame Shabelle Valley Kismayo Sorghum belt Major Road Regional Boundary Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia s of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (less than +/-1%) in local currency terms in December 217 and January 218 across the country. Compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mixed patterns; mild to moderate price declines were recorded for most food imports in most of Southern regions with highest declines (1-2%) being recorded in Middle Shabelle and Hiraan due to increased supply from humanitarian food distribution and mild appreciation of Somali shillings against USD. s for most food imports in Central and Northern regions showed mild changes (less than +/- 1%) compared to a year ago (December 216 and January 217). Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel exhibited mild changes (less than -/+1%) month-on-month in December 217 and January 218 in most regions of the country. Compared to a year ago (December 216 and January 217), most regions exhibited increases in goat and camel prices due to improved body conditions as a result of better rainfall performance this year which increased water availability and pasture. Similarly, milk prices (camel and cattle) mostly exhibited mild changes (less than +/-1%) in most regions of the country month-on-month in December 217 and January 218. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels when compared to last year in most regions of the country due to less milk supply because of low calving (big ruminants ) resulting from reduced conception in the past seasons. Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than +/-1%) month-on-month in most regions of the country in December 217 and January 218; labor wages in Shabelle valley have moderately declined from November 217 due to reduced agricultural activities in riverine areas. Compared to a year ago (December 216 and January 217), labor wages mostly exhibited increases in most regions of the country; this could be attributed to improved agricultural labor opportunities due to improved rainfall performance compared to last year. (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals remained relatively stable or changed mildly in most regions of the country month-on-month in December 217 and January 218 except Shabelle valley where the ToT declined (by 3kgs of cereals/daily labor wage) in December 217 due to mild decrease in labor wage rates. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to increases labor wages and/or decrease in cereal prices. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals mostly exhibited mild changes (+/- 1-1%) in most regions of the country monthon-month. Compared to a year ago (December 216 and January 217), the ToT between goat and cereals were higher across the country due to increased goat prices and/or decrease in cereal prices. Towns Affected by Trade Disruption (Bulo Burto, Wajid, Hudur and Diinsor) Labor (unskilled) wages in December 217 remained stable in Wajid, mildly increased (6%) in Hudur but declined in Bulo-Burto (1%) and Dinsor (12%) month-on-month; similarly, in January 218, wage rates changed at mild rate in siege affected markets except in Dinsor where the rates increased moderately (by 24%). Compared to a year ago, labor wages increased due to increased opportunities from loading and off-loading activities because of increased humanitarian distribution of food aid and increased agricultural activities in the surrounding rural areas. Local grain (red and white sorghum) prices declined (4-8%) in siege affected markets month-on-month in December 217 and January 218 due to increased supply from new Deyr 217 harvests. Compared to a year ago, local grain prices have mostly decreased increased supply from improved Deyr 217 cereal production and humanitarian distribution. (ToTs) between daily labor wage and cereals and between local quality goat and cereals either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates month-onmonth in all the markets. Annual comparison indicates higher ToTs in these markets due to increase in goat prices, daily labor wage and/or decrease in cereal prices compared to year ago. s of imported food items (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) changed (+/-) at mild rates for most of the food imports in all siege affected markets in December 217 and January 218. On the other hand, compared to a year ago, prices of most food imports declined in these markets due to increased supply from humanitarian distribution.

2 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal s and Relative Purchasing Power Table 1: ToT betwen Daily Wage Rate and Cereals (kg) by Region December 217 Regions Dec 217 (kg) Nov 217 kg change from Dec 216 Dec yr ( ) Banadir/Mogadishu (White maize) Bay (Red sorghum) Bakool (Red sorghum) Gedo (Red sorghum) Juba (White maize) Shabelle (White maize) Northwest (Imported Rice) Northeast (Imported Rice) 8 1 Central (Imported Rice) 1 Figure 1: Wheat s: Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets per Kg 17, 16, 1, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, January February March April May Bossaso Table 2: ToT betwen Daily Wage Rate and Cereals (kg) by Region January 218 Regions Jan 218 (kg) Dec 217 kg change from Jan 217 January yr ( ) Banadir/Mogadishu (White maize) Bay (Red sorghum) Bakool (Red sorghum) 1 2 Gedo (Red sorghum) Juba (White maize) Shabelle (White maize) Northwest (Imported Rice) Northeast (Imported Rice) 8 Central (Imported Rice) Source: FSNAU Manfest Monitoring System Figure 2: Between Wage Rates and Selected Cereals Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT to Maize (Juba & Shabelle) TOT to Rice (NW) TOT to Rice (Central & NE) Figure 3: ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) SoSh per US Dollar 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, Baidoa(SoSh) Bosasso(SoSh) Galkayo(SoSh) Mogadishu(SoSh) Hargeisa(SlSh) 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, SlSh per US Dollar Figure 4: ly Trends in Consumer Index (CPI, March 27=1) , Figure : ly Trends in Local Cereal s Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT to Maize (Juba & Shabelle) TOT to Rice (NW) TOT to Rice (Central & NE), June July Mogadishu August September October November December January CPI CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) 2

3 Regional analysis: Juba Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 2,181 21,94 2,7 2,813 8,66 % -4% -17% Imported Red Rice 1kg 1,944 1,688 16,141 16,63 6,88 % 2% 1% Petrol 1 litre 27,481 2,31 22,94 22,31 9,281 % -1% -18% Sugar 17,168 18,469 16,813 16,488 6,76-2% -11% -4% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 32,411 29,87 28,66 28,37 11,714-1% -% -12% Wheat Flour 1kg 1,862 16,688 1,63 1,69 6,399 % -6% -2% Wheat Grain 1kg Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 8,233 8,417 7,133 8,1 3,273 14% -4% -2% White Maize 1kg 8,39 1,71 7,694 7,983 3,224 4% -24% -7% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 9,31,696 7,21,62 1,78,12 1,434,37 4,344,397-1% 4% 12% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,622,49 2,27, 3,321,786 3,31,71 1,261,929-9% 34% -16% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 17,184 1,63 2,844 18,938 7,78-9% 26% 1% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,21,12 771,87 1,31,62 1,289,63 36,619-2% 67% 3% Goat Local Quality (Head) 82,86 27, ,63 781,63 32,31 % 48% -% Charcoal kg 87,331 79,63 9,62 89,219 37,48-2% 13% 2% Cowpeas 1 kg 21,981 23,31 29,938 32,66 13,497 9% 39% 49% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 88,81 92, 98,438 11,46 42,122 3% 1% 14% Firewood Bundle 8,121 6,719 7,328 7,94 3,62 4% 13% -6% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 68,16 2,781 3, 7,46 23,82 8% 9% -16% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,8 23,288 23,188 23,181 9,2 % % 6% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 44% 3% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 96% -3% Indices Consumer Index % -3% - Figure 6: Trends in Cereal s 12, 1, Figure 7: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Figure 8: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 9: Goat Local Quality 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 1: Exchange Rate Figure 11: Water Drum (2 litres) 3

4 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 28,1 23, 24,64 24,2 9,976-2% 3% -14% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,11 19,3 19,313 19, 7,811-2% -2% % Petrol 1 litre 29,6 28,133 27,83 26,2 1,89-3% -7% -1% Sugar 19,966 23,1 2, 2,18 8,272-2% -13% 1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 37,78 37,33 36,271 3,233 14,7-3% -6% -7% Wheat Flour 1kg 17,289 18,333 17,969 17,7 7,27-1% -3% 2% Wheat Grain 1kg 17,388 18,42 17,9 17,32 7,111-3% -6% % Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 8,96 11,71 1,42 9,8 3,889-8% -18% 18% White Maize 1kg 9,198 11,88 1,48 1,422 4,239-1% -12% 13% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 11,94,922 8,76, 11,6, 11,46,2 4,773,96-1% 31% -4% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,,732 2,224,286 2,74,688 2,773,143 1,14,37 1% 2% -21% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 19,116 22,2 26,63 27,817 11,482 % 2% 46% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,47,78 1,178,4 1,492,4 1,464,727 69,79-2% 24% % Goat Local Quality (Head) 88,421 72, 831,87 837, ,3 1% 46% -% Charcoal kg 142,63 136,99 18, ,727 71,41 -% 2% 2% Cowpeas 1 kg 22,1 3,283 33,48 32,7 13,36-2% 8% 4% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 97,617 83,333 1,21 98,833 41, -2% 19% 1% Firewood Bundle 6,484,8,917,833 2,329-1% % -1% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 7,799 79,111 8,6 83,444 34,643 4% % 1% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 22,189 24,83 23,69 23,73 9,7 % -6% 4% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) 4 - % 2% % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) % 47% -8% Indices Consumer Index % -3% - 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Figure 12: Trends in Cereal s Gedo Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bay Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bakool Cereal (Red Sorghum) Hiraan Cereal (White Sorghum) Figure 13:Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Figure 14: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 1: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) 6, 4, 2, Figure 16: Exchange Rate Figure 17: Water Drum (2 litres) 4

5 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 23,983 17,98 17,7 16,87 6,926 -% -6% -3% Imported Red Rice 1kg 16,141 17,87 1,792 1,98 6,44 1% -11% -1% Petrol 1 litre 26,6 2,917 19,917 19,792 8,141-1% -% -26% Sugar 17,88 2,83 16,42 16,83 6,8 % -19% -7% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 28,37 29,98 29,333 29,667 12,22 1% -1% % Wheat Flour 1kg 16,341 16,2 13,917 13,7,62-1% -1% -16% Wheat Grain 1kg 17,633 18, 7, 14,,937 93% -19% -18% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,937 1,724 1,47 9,836 3,99-6% -8% -1% White Maize 1kg 7,266 9,97 7,717 7,98 2,8-8% -29% -2% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 17,296,6 13,93, 16,873,12 1,68,7 6,482,166-8% 12% -1% Cattle Local Quality (Head),11,8 3,177, 3,11,87 3,63,12 1,2,929 4% 1% -29% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 18,68 19, 2,87 2,48 8,418-2% 8% 1% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,778,12 1,,62 1,73, 1,86,62 776,679 8% 24% % Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,26,7 1,91,2 1,21,2 1,323,333,888 6% 21% % Charcoal kg 131,933 12, , ,917 7,324-4% 1% % Cowpeas 1 kg 19,491 24,792 32,48 29,87 12,339-8% 21% 3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 7,366 6,28 62,37 64,83 26,79 4% 7% -8% Firewood Bundle 6,27,,833,833 2,329 % 17% -7% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 8,398 2,42 9,167 9,292 24,87 % 13% 2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 22,194 24,67 23,413 23,363 9,628 % -3% % Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % % -1% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 71% 1% Indices Consumer Index % -3% - Figure 18: Trends in Cereal s Figure 19: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, Cereal 12, /Cereal TOT 2 1, 8, 6, 4, 1, 8, 6, 4, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2, 2, Figure 2: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate per Unit (SoSh) Figure 21: Goat Local Quality 6, 4, 2, Figure 22: Exchange Rate Figure 23: Water Drum (2 litres)

6 Regional analysis: Banadir Region -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 18,8 12,233 13,72 13,992,726 2% 14% -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 12,48 12,3 12,167 12,683,181 4% 3% 2% Petrol 1 litre 2,971 17,67 16,83 1,67 6,382-6% -9% -26% Sugar 14,71 16,3 1,28 14,842 6,8-2% -9% 1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 24,28 22, 22,667 22,733 9,36 % 1% -6% Wheat Flour 1kg 12,6 12,2 11,83 11,2 4,84 2% -8% -7% Wheat Grain 1kg 9,7 13,4 1,2 1,3 6,27 % 14% 7% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 7,33 11,4 8,7 1,413 4,236 2% -6% 43% White Maize 1kg 8,268 1,97 9, 9,17 3,863 % -13% 1% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) Cattle Local Quality (Head) Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 22,816 26,333 26,333 26,333 1,864 % % 1% Goat Export Quality (Head) 2,242, 1,62, 2,22, 2,12, 882,92 -% - -% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,832, 96, 1,82, 1,68, 699,391-8% 7% -8% Charcoal kg 186,83 174, ,7 188, 78,38 % 8% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 18,343 27,373 34,83 31,733 13,112-7% 16% 73% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 11,716 79, 92, 9, 37,81-2% 1% -18% Firewood Bundle 7, 7, 8, 8, 3,231 % 7% 7% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 62,126,8 4,667,33 23,22 2% 9% -11% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,832 23,667 22,92 22,9 9,46 % -3% % Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 17% -13% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 69% -1% Indices Consumer Index % -3% - Figure 24: Trends in Cereal s Figure 2: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2, 22, 3 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Cereal (Maize) 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 4, 2, 4, 2, Figure 26: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 27: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) 6, 4, 2, Figure 28: Exchange Rate Figure 29: Wheat Flour 6

7 Regional analysis: Central Regions -Year ( ) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Real /Cereal TOT Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 24,69 2, 2, 19,9 8,26 % -3% -19% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,234 17,72 18,8 18,8 7,778 % 6% 3% Petrol 1 litre 24,612 24,46 24,4 23,4 9,7-4% -4% -% Sugar 2,664 24,12 21,2 21,6 8,91 2% -1% % Vegetable Oil 1 litre 39,73 39,2 37,6 37,6 1,6 % -4% -% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,7 1,8 16,6 16,3 6,73-2% 3% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,12 2,83 19, 18,6 7,694-2% -7% 1% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 11,61 13, 13, 14,938 6,19 1% 1% 29% White Maize 1kg 13,11 17,2 1, 16,938 6,998 9% -2% 29% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,781,2 8,2, 11,7, 12,887,,4,132 1% 7% 2% Cattle Local Quality (Head) Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 3,46 36,3 49,6,4 23,114 12% 3% 81% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,392,166 1,, 1,3, 1,6, 67,346 23% 7% 1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 911, , 97, 1,4, 437,78 8% 62% 1% Charcoal kg 171, , 166, 198, 82,868 19% 14% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 22,828 38,6 39, 38,9 16,2-2% 1% 7% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 87,8 96, 98, 18, 4,1 1% 13% 23% Firewood Bundle 34,3 34,7 33, 3, 12,471-9% -14% -12% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 8,88 8,8 82,6 83, 34,679 % 3% -3% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 22,746 26, 24,2 24,2 1,61 % -8% 7% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice Kg) 4 6-2% 2% % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice Kg) % 6% 14% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Rice Kg) % 48% 1% Indices Consumer Index % -3% - 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, 8, 6, Figure 3: Trends in Cereal s Cereal (Rice) Figure 32: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 31: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Figure 33: Goat Local Quality Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) per Unit (SoSh) 4, 2, Figure 34: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Water Drum (2 litres) 7

8 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 2,822 16,32 21,282 21,121 7,19-1% 29% 1% Imported Red Rice 1kg 16,98 16,64 18,286 18,89 6,143-1% 9% 6% Petrol 1 litre 21,887 19,914 24,332 24,336 8,299 % 22% 11% Sugar 2,67 21,914 21,821 21,171 7,27-3% -3% 6% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 3,68 33,329 34,71 34,37 11,78-1% 3% -4% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,42 1,979 17,429 17,279,864-1% 8% % Wheat Grain 1kg 29,21 3,72 32,4 32, 1,94-1% 4% 8% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 22,9 2,4 28,7 27,2 9,288 -% 7% 23% White Maize 1kg 21,8 28, 24, 24, 8,183-2% -16% 11% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 14,42,4 11,6, 1,786, 1,471,,339,747-2% 33% 7% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 7,6,,4, 11,2, 12,, 4,314,161 11% 131% 64% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 38,34 6,7 62,467 64,83 22,18 3% 14% 67% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,324,4 1,182, 1,46, 1,482, 11,399 1% 2% 12% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,242,8 1,46,429 1,446,786 1,424, ,41-2% 36% 1% Charcoal kg 38,43 362, , , ,188 % 6% 7% Cowpeas 1 kg 38,2 38,17 68,2 69,3 23,818 2% 8% 82% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 136,71 136, , ,36 49,268 1% % % Firewood Bundle 3,214 3,786 2, 2,321 17,98 % 46% 49% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 98,2 96,6 11, 11,4 38,21 % 14% 13% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,713 24,714 27,143 27,7 9,238 % 9% 2% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % % % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 2% 8% Indices Consumer Index % 7% - Figure 36: Trends in Cereal s Figure 37: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 3, 14, 2 2, Cereal (Rice) 12, 2 2, 1, 1,, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT 1 1 Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 38: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 39: Goat Local Quality 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 4: Exchange Rate Figure 41: Water Drum (2 litres) 8

9 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 6,2,42 6,96 7,26 4,944 4% 34% 17% Imported Red Rice 1kg,21, 6,,64 3,818-6% 2% 8% Petrol 1 litre 7,171 6,71 8,1 8,1,27 % 21% 13% Sugar 6,27 6,87 7,3 7,1 4,832-3% 4% 18% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 12,792 14,3 13, 12,8 8,792-2% -1% % Wheat Flour 1kg 4,38 4,14,1, 3,374-2% 11% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,66 4,2 4,87 4,7 3,2-3% 12% 3% Cereal s White Sorghum 1kg 3,828 4,4 4,9 4,74 3,193-3% 7% 24% Yellow Maize 1kg 4,11, 6,18 6,72 4,68 9% 34% 63% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,688,383 4,2, 4,26,667 4,3, 3,21,881 2% 7% 18% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,12,1 2,34,833 2,683,7 1,892,83 1,314,346-29% -19% -12% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 7,187 1,7 11,9 12,1 8,36 2% 13% 68% Goat Export Quality (Head) 437,497 46, ,37 46, ,918-3% 12% 4% Goat Local Quality (Head) 34, ,99 42,1 399,27 277,276-1% 28% 17% Charcoal kg 6,7 6,4 79,17 78,6 4,129-1% 38% 39% Cowpeas 1 kg 11,471 14, 18, 18,2 12,78 1% 3% 9% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate,86 63,6 71, 72,48,22 2% 14% 42% Firewood Bundle 4,233 4,833,667,833 3,92 3% 21% 38% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 31,823 33,7 37, 37,2 2,778-1% 1% 17% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 7,7 8,1 1,1 1, 6,847 % 2% 42% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 18% 44% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 27% 9% Indices Consumer Index % 17% - Figure 42: Trends in Cereal s Figure 43: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 7, Cereal (Rice) 8, /Cereal TOT 2 SLSH 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, SLSH 6, 4, 2, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 44: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 4: Goat Local Quality 14, 12, per Unit (SLSh) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SlSh Figure 46: Exchange Rate Figure 47: Water Drum (2 litres) 9

10 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 1: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats Cattle , Camel , Figure 48: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR Table 2: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats Cattle , Camel Figure 49: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 1

11 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 3: Total Cereal Imports through Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu Ports (Tonnes) * * * 216* 217 Rice 63, Wheat flour Pasta * Elman (Mogadishu) is up to November 21. Mogadishu data (Elmaan Port) for 213 includes only January - March imports. Berbera Data is up to December 216 4, 3, 3, Figure : Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu) Rice Wheat flour Pasta Tonnes 2, 2, 1, 1,, Year Technical Partners FSNAU Resource Partners 11