Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use in EU 27. Meeting EUROSTAT - 7 and 8 October

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1 Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use in EU 27 Meeting EUROSTAT - 7 and 8 October 2010

2 Forecast training The EFMA Methodologies for a crop based approach

3 The Fertilizers Europe forecast The crop-based approach. The «fertilizer consumption parameters»: Basic parameters : Crop areas. Nutrients application rates. Crop yield (or production). >> Help to later assess the evolution of the application rates. When relevant : % of crop area fertilized. >> To extrapolate actual fertilizer consumption from total area, when only effective application rates are known. When collecting crop data: Focus on main «fertilizer consuming crops», make assessment when necessary. Better to assess part of the market with reliable data, then to extrapolate to 100% of the known fertilizer consumption

4 The Fertilizers Europe forecast The crop based approach (continued). Main methodologies to achieve crop-based approach : Agro-economic models adapted when : Crop data is easily available to «feed» the model. No major policy change (break in trend) is foreseen. Expert based approach better adapted when : Data availability is partial or critical. Major policy changes are expected during the period. >> This is often the situation in EU

5 The Fertilizers Europe forecast Particular requirements crop based / expert based The forecast is made by «projection» and not by extrapolating time series (as in models), therefore : A sound and solid basis is key : Data for base year should be as solid (and reliable) as possible. Cross the estimated values for current year with known market fertilizer consumption (sales). A clear description of the future market conditions is also essential : >> Defining a «scenario for the future» greatly facilitates the «projection» of the crop parameters, and help to justify the foreseen evolution.

6 The Fertilizers Europe forecast The objectives, principles and main steps of Fertilizers Europe methodology

7 Objectives, principles and main steps of our methodology Objectives & principles Long term consumption forecast : Parallel and convergent with sales forecast: «Full convergence» by campaign n-2/n-3. An expert based approach A «bottom-up» procedure, step by step : Per country. Crop acreage forecast, considering : Global and European Agro-economic trends. Agricultural policies. Application rate forecast, considering : Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices. Environmental policies. Short term to long term forecast : 5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10 Based on «scenarios for the future» : General agro-economic trends, global and European. National projections.

8 Time schedule Various stages of the process : an expert approach 1/ Building a scenario : March The «European context», prepared by the leader of the WG : Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe. Agricultural & Environmental policies. 2/ Our scenario for a European agriculture. April The impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG. 3/ Adapting our scenario to national level. May The impact of national situation and policies >> the «country report». 4/ Making the national forecast. May- June 5/ Finalizing the European approach. June Critical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario. 6/ Finalizing the EU forecast : integration of all nationals. July 7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast. September

9 Assumptions and scenario Building the EU scenario Background information : Quantitative Global : FAPRI, USDA & FAO-OECD EU : EU Commission (DG Agri,EEA) Qualitative Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env) Building the scenario : Selecting relevant information for our forecasters Proposing a draft scenario Discussing the scenario in plenum

10 Commodity market development in Europe Fertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019 Background information for the EU scenario

11 Commodity market development in Europe Fertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019 Background information for the EU scenario EC Prospects for Agric Markets & Income in the EU,

12 The National approach Developing the Expertise Example: Sources of information for Application rate Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources). Advisory service, consultants. Publications (scientific, Farmers weekly ). Your control calculation. Watch other nutrient sources (National budget!) : farmyard manure, slurry sewage sludge others

13 The Fertilizers Europe forecast The National approach Sources of information for Crop area planted : Statistical yearbook. Newspapers, journals, etc News agencies e.g. Agra Europe. Press releases : - Ministry of Agriculture. - Growers associations. - Newspaper / journal for merchants. - International produce traders. - Plant breeders / -associations.

14 The Fertilizers Europe forecast The National approach Sources of information for Environmental policy : Implementation of EU-rules and programmes. National programmes. National / regional limitations. points of discussion (conferences, media). Intensity of discussions (conferences, media). Direct contacts (ministry, NGOs, administration).

15 The Fertilizers Europe forecast «Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer use in EU» Three main outputs : The Fertilizers Europe forecast data book (internal use). The Fertilizers Europe forecast leaflet (public circulation). The Fertilizers Europe forecast presentation. ( A new leaflet in project )

16 Outcome example Forecast 2009/2019 Forecast changes in farming food crops in EU27 wheat barley rye, oats, rice grain maize potato sugar beet oilseed rape Area (ha) Yield (q/ha) -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Forecast changes : 2018/19 - Ref. **

17 Forecast 2009/2019 evolution with 2009 and 2007 reference Nutrient (million tonnes) Fertilizer nutrient consumption in the European Union 27 Reference Reference N P2O5 K2O

18 Forecast changes in fertilizer use EU15, 2009/ Spain Forecast changes % in regional fertilizer use Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium Sweden EU Austria Denmark 5 U K -5 Belgium + Lux Germany FinlandFrance EU 15 EU Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal

19 The Fertilizers Europe forecast Fertilizers Europe Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use, a reference in EU

20 The Fertilizers Europe forecast Fertilizers Europe Forecast, a reference in EU. Organizations: IFA and FAO EU Commission: DG AGRI, DG ENV, DG TREN EUROSTAT EEA IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) COPA COGECA EISA (European Initiative for Sustainable development in Agriculture) Studies, preparation of legislations CAPRI model NEC directive Wells to Wheels >> 2008 Directive on Renewable Energy Gothenburg Protocol (UN ECE) Revision ECCP 1

21 Thank you for your attention! Ermis Panagiotopoulos