Cradles of Success: 1. Policy Support. 3. Technology and Partnership (ICAR with CYMMIT and IRRI)

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1 Addressing Second Generation Challenges of Green Revolution While Managing Natural Resources and Climate Change Raj Paroda Bank, Washington DC on March

2 The Green Revolution in mid-sixties was a Unique Success Cradles of Success: 1. Policy Support 2. Institutions & Human Resource 3. Technology and Partnership (ICAR with CYMMIT and IRRI) 4. Hardworking Farmers

3 Unprecedented Growth Five fold increase in food grain production (50 mt mt in 2014) - As against four fold increase in population Reduced d poverty (From 70% - 22%) Buffer stock : > 50 mt ; Export : 20 mt Life expectancy almost doubled (From years) Bank, Washington DC on March

4 Second Generation Problems of Green Revolution Factor Productivity Decline Decline in Soil Health and Water Table Macro-nutrient Imbalance & Micro- nutrient Deficiency Increased Incidence of Diseases and Pests Dependence on Costly inputs & Reduced Farm Profitability

5 Economic Survey of India (February, 2016) Agriculture is a victim of its past success especially the Green Revolution It has become cereal centric, regionally biased and input intensive (land, water & fertilizer) It now requires: - increasing productivity by getting more from less - growing of less water requiring crops pulses & oilseeds - emphasis on micro-irrigation - reinvigorating the agricultural research and extension system - Ensure marketing reforms

6 THE WAY FORWARD Bank, Washington DC on March

7 Germplasm Improvement and Biotechnology Policy and Socioeconomic Development Integrated Natural Resource Management Bank, Washington DC on March

8 Strategy Reorientation: 1. Greater Emphasis on Innovation : - Farming Systems Research (Participatory) - Extension (Bottom Up) 2. Policy Reforms (Farmer First) : - Secondary and Specialty Agriculture - Linking Farmer to Market Bank, Washington DC on March

9 Out Scaling of Innovation Hybrid Rice China: ~15 m ha (53%) area with 15 mt extra production India : 2.0 m ha (<5%) area Single Cross Maize Hybrids in India Production almost doubled (25 mt) Productivity increased by 80 % QPM shows ways for nutritional security Transgenic crops 144 m ha under transgenic crops since % in developing countries Bt Cotton in India India: 11.5 m ha in 2014, which is nearly 95% of total area Production doubled (from 2.3 mt in 2002 to 4.9 mt in 2015) Pesticide consumption reduced by 30 % Export of cotton : US $ >2.0 billion last year Policy on GM Crops?????

10 Strategy for Natural Resource Management Eco-regional approach - landscape Multi-disciplinary - team work Farming systems mode inter-sectoral Farmers participation - research and extension Knowledge sharing - no dissemination loss Involvement of youth - technology/change g agents Requires lead time - expected outputs RWC was a good example. NARS and CG Centers to reorient their AR4D agenda (SRF and CRPs)

11 Soil: Most Precious Resource Our soils are more hungry than thirsty (In Indo-Gangetic Plains : OM < 0.5%) Dr. N.S. Randhawa For sustainable agriculture, the soil quality and its organic matter content must be restored, enhanced and retained. Prof. Rattan lal

12 Organic Recycling in Agriculture: Biomass Burning in a BIG challenge India generates ~980 Mt of agricultural by products and other solid organic wastes every year Major use of cow dung is for fuel purpose p Practically no organic recycling in rice wheat system Bank, Washington DC on March

13 Biomass Recycling? Residue Burning, Dung Cake for Fuel Biomass burning emits 3.7 Pg C/year in the Tropics Source: Lal (2008) Alternatives : Bio-energy Agro-forestry Composting Residue management Crops : Cotton, Arhar

14 Conservation Agriculture Zero till drill Moong after wheat Moong in standing wheat Direct seeded rice

15 Impact of CA in South Asia RWC : A success story of NARS-CG partnership Farm level benefits 7%g gain in crop pp productivity y 20 % (18 ha-cm yr-1) saving in irrigation water, US$ 113 to 175 ha-1 higher system profitability % higher efficiency of nitrogen use CGIAR Impact Review : Indian CA program has saved USD 164 million with an investment of onl USD 3 only million with ith 66% internal rate of return - highest amongst all the CG programs Food Policy Brief, 35 (2010) at Received King Baudouin Award Dr. R.S. Paroda the World

16 Trading C Credits -The C market may reach around $ 1 trillion by We need to make this market also accessible to smallholder ld farmers - Compensation for environmental services to small holder farmers in the developing countries has to be a bold Policy decision - $ 16/acre (Lal, 2015)

17 Nutrient Use Efficiency: a Concern

18 Immediate Action: Improving NUE We need this transformation More losses Minimal i losses Less efficiency Higher efficiency GHGs Less emission of NO2 Soil acidity/health Relatively less effect on soil GW pollution Minimize NO3-N leaching Bank, Washington DC on March

19 New Innovation for Precision Nutrient Management Capture spatial and temporal variability due to management Decision support tools: Nutrient t Expert GreenSeeker sensor Leaf Color Charts ICTs for dissemination of information Engage Youth and women

20 Ground water Moving out of Aquifers: Alarming Situation in North West India Source: M Rodell et al. Nature 460, (2009) Bank, Washington DC on March During the last decade Northern India s groundwater levels have fallen as much as 30 cm per year. Estimated water loss from aquifers : ( ±4.5 7±45 km3/yr) in North west India More than 109 cubic km (26 cubic miles) of groundwater disappeared from the region's aquifers between India is highest withdrawal of fresh water from aquifers in the world (761 km 3 /year)

21 Water Use Efficiency To stop flood irrigation practice Promoting laser leveling To encourage use of micro-irrigation Irrigation water must be priced??? Crop diversification towards less water requiring crops (Pulses, Oilseeds, Horticulture Crops, Coarse Cereals) Water be treated as national asset (Ex. Israel) Watershed management - WUA Bank, Washington DC on March

22 Raised-bed Planting of Wheat Advantages Saving of Water by 35-40% Better Fertilizer Use Efficiency Lower Seed Rate Effective Weed Management

23 Benefits of Direct Seeded Rice (DSR) Higher system productivity by improving yield of succeeding wheat crop Water saving: 20-33% Labor saving: up to 60% (average 30%) Reduces production cost: US$ 30-80/ha Increases net returns (US$ /ha) Reduces methane emission (by 30%) Improves soil health Eliminate i drudgery d due to transplanting Timeliness in planting and maintain optimal plant population Reduces lodging

24 New Innovation for RW System : CA Using Precision Water and Nutrient Application Tillage, Crop RW system RW System establishment & yield (t/ha) Irrigation Irrigation water use (cm) Puddled Rice CT Wheat: Flood Irrigation 9.71 ZT DSR ZTW: Flood Irrigation ZT DSR ZTW: Sub Surface Drip (SSD) RW System Irrigation water Productivity (kg/m3) RW System PFP N (kg/kg) Sub Surface drip (SSD) irrigation system in ZT DSR ZTW produced 0.74 t/ha/year higher yield than conventional till ricewheat but with ~70 cm less irrigation water and double irrigation i water productivity. it On a system basis drip irrigation with 20% less fertilizer N application produced higher rice and wheat yields thereby resulting in higher partial factor productivity of N. Source: HS Sidhu and ML Jat, BISA-CIMMYT (2016)

25 Laser land leveling- A Water Saving Revolution Haryana : 0.5 m ha covered

26 Climate Change impact on Agriculture Productivity ( ) Source: Cline (2007) Productivity of most crops to decrease marginally by 2020, and by 10-40% by Increased droughts, floods and heat waves: (+/-) production variability Length of growing period in rainfed areas is likely to reduce Every 1 o C increase in temperature t is expected to reduce wheat production by 4-5 m tons, which Dr. R.S. Paroda can at be the World reduced to 1-2 m tons if farmers adopt timely planting and conservation agriculture.

27 Growth Rate for Agricultural GDP (Adverse Impact due to Climate Change) % % 4.2% % (Projected)

28 Towards Climate Smart Agriculture Think Globally Act Locally

29 Climate Smart Villages (CSVs) An integrated community based approach for resilience Weather Smart Weather forecast, Inde x based insurance, se eds for needs, crop diversification, Agroforestry Water Smart Direct seeded rice, maize based system, raise d beds, precisi on land levelling, AW D Carbon Smart Notillage, Resid ue Management Legumes Nutrient Smart SSNM, Nutrien t Expert Decision Support tool Green Seeker, Legu me integration Energy Smart Notillage, Resid ue Management,DSR Precision water management Knowledge Smart ICTs, Gender Empowerme nt Capacity development Women and youth focus Approaches: Multi stakeholder participatory and local adaptation Focus on youth, womenand socially ill disadvantagedd d groups Innovation systems: farmer cooperatives Dr. R.S. Paroda & at service the World windows ML Jat CIMMYT

30 New Crops & New Area Approach Rice and Sugarcane in North Groundnut in Gujarat Potato t in Indo-Gangetic Plains Maize in Eastern India - as a winter crop (Av. yield; 6-7t/ha) Soybean in Central India (>10 m ha) Chickpea in South Pigeonpea in North and West

31 Adaptation: Early and Extra-early Varieties Super early Etraearl Extra-early Early maturing ICC ICCV 2 KAK days days days

32 New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence at IRRI IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba IR64 Samba IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 Samba IR49830 (Sub1) IR42 IR64-Sub1 IR64-Sub1 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba-Sub1 IR64

33 CA for resilience in wheat (Haryana) Current economic gains ($ 97.5 ha -1 yr -1 )= US$ 25 million yr -1, from targeted area by 2015= 97.5 million yr -1 Mitigation of GHGs -1.5 t CO2-e ha -1, state level mitigation 0.4 million t CO2-e ha-1 yr -1, potential from targeted area by mt CO2-e ha -1 yr -1 Resilience in wheat production system Water saving Soil health improvement

34 Growth rate in GDP from agriculture and allied sectors at prices

35 Trend growth rate in output of various Sub-sectors of Agriculture (%)

36 Factors for Improved Performance 1.Hike in MSP 2..Increase in Foodgrain Procurement 3.Increase in Global Agricultural Prices 4.Strong Domestic Demand for Food 5. Farmers Increased Investments in Seeds, Fertilizers, Improved Technology 6.Liberal Institutional Credit 7.Irrigation Expansion

37 More Investments Needed Capital Investment in Agriculture During Green Revolution - 18 % Presently - around 9% Private Sector Investment? Agricultural Subsidy: US $ % of AGDP India - 12 billion 11.O % Japan - 58 billion 65.0 % USA - 54 billion 24.0 %

38 Agricultural research expenditures (Only Public Sector)

39 Conclusion Agriculture will liberate India from hunger, malnutrition and poverty and bridge the widening income divide between farmers and non-farmers Given the declining land, water and agro-biodiversity resources and the intensifying environmental footprint, the task ahead is difficult, but certainly not insurmountable Must adopt an integrated three pillar approach ensuring farmers participation p Greater emphasis on up scaling and out scaling innovation for impact Must have foresight, faith in science and policy support (including higher AR4D investments) Build partnerships and ensure coordination and convergence at all levels

40 For Better Future

41 THANK YOU